Cybertruck Production Advances to TOOLING Phase!

[greggertruck]

Also huge note; Model Y is basically at 2k/weekly @ GT. VERY IMPORTANT!

I don't think they care to diversify that factory til 5k weekly. But I also don't think it's so apples and oranges anymore. Tesla's geared up for some really big years ahead it feels like. Lots of good news indeed!

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[Crissa]

4680’s won’t be a constraint for Cybertruck or any product. Worried that means 2170for CT but I personally don’t care.

If they're building packs in Fremont, then it's likely 4680 for the ramp, not 2170.

Otherwise they'd just do it in Nevada.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

If they're building packs in Fremont, then it's likely 4680 for the ramp, not 2170.

Otherwise they'd just do it in Nevada.

-Crissa

This makes the most sense. So far anyhow they seem to prefer packaging the cells before shipping.

Or ideally building the cells and installing them in the vehicle without shipping.

 

[Ogre]

Also huge note; Model Y is basically at 2k/weekly @ GT. VERY IMPORTANT!

I don't think they care to diversify that factory til 5k weekly. But I also don't think it's so apples and oranges anymore. Tesla's geared up for some really big years ahead it feels like. Lots of good news indeed!

If 4680 production is ~1,000 packs per week that means they are cranking out roughly 50/50 2170 versus 4680 Model Ys from Texas.

I think they suggested Model Y ramp would be done by year end, but it’s possible cell production will be a bit behind that so they will keep cranking out 2170 semis and Model Ys well into 2023 and perhaps after Cybertruck launch.

 

[Crissa]

Why? It was designed long before the 4680.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Just pulled out of thin air, loose figures, every 3 months exponential growth

I don't think I am off the charts... it might be thereabouts

BATTERIES	QRT END	CARS	or CYBERTRUCKS
10,000	current	12	8
100,000	Dec-22​	120	80
1,000,000	Mar-23​	1,200	800
10,000,000	Jun-23​	12,000	8,000
100,000,000	Sep-23​	120,000	80,000
1,000,000,000	Dec-23​	1,200,000	800,000

 

[greggertruck]

I wouldn't look at that so closely. Lots of rumors suggesting they're stock piling 4680s, i don't know about that really but, the reality - if they can achieve this semi on 2170s then it doesn't really matter! I almost think it's a sandbag.

You REALLY don't wanna mess up the semi. Commercial people have lawyers, lot easier to swap out a Model Y for a customer if there's a problem than have Pepsi stuck on the side of the road. Right?

 

[greggertruck]

Just pulled out of thin air, loose figures, every 3 months exponential growth

I don't think I am off the charts... it might be thereabouts

BATTERIES	QRT END	CARS	or CYBERTRUCKS
10,000	current	12	8
100,000	Dec-22​	120	80
1,000,000	Mar-23​	1,200	800
10,000,000	Jun-23​	12,000	8,000
100,000,000	Sep-23​	120,000	80,000
1,000,000,000	Dec-23​	1,200,000	800,000

Talking annuals I reasonably presume?

 

[greggertruck]

Another goodie from the call.




Above is Rob’s interpretation my big takeaway is that Musk expects to drive his beta truck in a few weeks. Presumably one of the shells we saw on the dock. This is pretty big news.

I feel like this is being SERIOUSLY slept on. "beta" would be THE truck if I understand right. BETA is a to spec final test builds, figure out manufacturing at scale. Or... Effectively a model they could send for crash testing. This SHOULD mean a unit 9k Pressed. Right? Maybe press "snuck" in? Or, they can build it that quick?

 

[charliemagpie]

Talking annuals I reasonably presume?

More or less. Just so we can track against some idea.

In fact, I looked closer as I posted. Seems feasible by those numbers, we could match a 'typical' hyperthetical Model Y ramp, in parallel to a 100,000 Cybertruck ramp as discussed on here. It seems to work.

 

[JBee]

Just pulled out of thin air, loose figures, every 3 months exponential growth

I don't think I am off the charts... it might be thereabouts

BATTERIES	QRT END	CARS	or CYBERTRUCKS
10,000	current	12	8
100,000	Dec-22​	120	80
1,000,000	Mar-23​	1,200	800
10,000,000	Jun-23​	12,000	8,000
100,000,000	Sep-23​	120,000	80,000
1,000,000,000	Dec-23​	1,200,000	800,000

Thats kWh of batteries on the left column?
In individual battery cells that would be about 10x more.

The last ramp is too much at once, maybe half or quarter that, but then it keeps improving after that for another year or so until it reaches that end 2024?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I am surprised that no one mentioned the Semi being in Early-Production when it will be delivering in just over a month. It never showed being in the Tooling phase at all, so it jumped from In-Development to Tooling to Early-Production in one quarter. That is very interesting.

 

[JBee]

I feel like this is being SERIOUSLY slept on. "beta" would be THE truck if I understand right. BETA is a to spec final test builds, figure out manufacturing at scale. Or... Effectively a model they could send for crash testing. This SHOULD mean a unit 9k Pressed. Right? Maybe press "snuck" in? Or, they can build it that quick?

No November announcement after all, but beta testing is better IMHO. If they have all the parts manufacturered already it should only take a few days to assemble after they have the casts.

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