Honoring Original Estimated Pricing

[Ogre]

Tesla is going to price the truck using the exact some philosophy they use to price every vehicle.

They are going to price it to sell every single one they can manufacture.

What price does Tesla need to set in order to sell 250k - 500k trucks per year?

Almost every pricing guess I’ve seen is based on 4th grade logic. “Tesla wants to make money so they will price it high”. Tesla has people who understand supply and demand on staff. They figured this out before you even heard of the truck. They used math and economics knowledge to do it. Yes, things have changed a bit and I’m certain prices with change to account for inflation, but not 40% or 60%. There are not enough buyers in the market for $80-90k trucks to support those prices.

Pricing and value are literally the #1 thing the Cybertruck brings to the table. I know many of us love the look of the truck, but that’s not universal. It’s certainly not enough to carry a $30% premium to the trucks people are cross shopping it against.

The only way Tesla sells 250k trucks a year is if they get attract a lot of ICE buyers. The only way they attract that many ICE buyers is by pricing it comparable to ICE trucks.

Stop applying elementary school logic to a solved problem.

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[Arctic_White]

Agreed that Tesla has no legal obligation to sell CT at any specific price.

That said, I cannot fathom the logic in introducing a product at one price, and then selling it 50% or more higher than previously advertised.

Tesla’s long-term goal is not to maximize profits, but to maximize sales.

Yup. Not to mention that Tesla has said that the CT will be cheaper to produce than a Model 3.

If you believe Tesla will be able to reduce costs (and they will), it makes logical sense that they will price CT very competitively (they will).

Tesla's goal, afterall, is to make the CT so compelling that buyers will opt for an EV truck rather than an ICE truck.

I fully expect Tesla to be significantly less expensive than its competitors.

 

[Arctic_White]

I expect 10-15% increase.

Maybe in addition, with such a long waiting list, Tesla may add an extra 2-3 grand to that price.

Wait and see.

Yup.

The only way I see Tesla to raise prices it to ensure that the backlog isn't large. Tesla did the same thing for Model Y pricing throughout 2021 & 2022, and they reduces its prices in 2023 when backlog was gone.

I expect Tesla to play around with CT prices to find the equilibrium b/w supply and demand.

And as they ramp up, prices will come down.

 

[Gurule92]

Tesla is going to price the truck using the exact some philosophy they use to price every vehicle.

They are going to price it to sell every single one they can manufacture.

What price does Tesla need to set in order to sell 250k - 500k trucks per year?

Almost every pricing guess I’ve seen is based on 4th grade logic. “Tesla wants to make money so they will price it high”. Tesla has people who understand supply and demand on staff. They figured this out before you even heard of the truck. They used math and economics knowledge to do it. Yes, things have changed a bit and I’m certain prices with change to account for inflation, but not 40% or 60%. There are not enough buyers in the market for $80-90k trucks to support those prices.

Pricing and value are literally the #1 thing the Cybertruck brings to the table. I know many of us love the look of the truck, but that’s not universal. It’s certainly not enough to carry a $30% premium to the trucks people are cross shopping it against.

The only way Tesla sells 250k trucks a year is if they get attract a lot of ICE buyers. The only way they attract that many ICE buyers is by pricing it comparable to ICE trucks.

Stop applying elementary school logic to a solved problem.

Exactly! Maxed out CT may be that high but there is no reason that a vehicle that is allegedly cheap and fast to manufacture would be dumb expensive.

There is a reason the priced it similar to model Y originally. These model X owners don't wanna look silly for spending so much on their vehicle so they are hoping the CT is like that price. It won't be

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

I wouldn’t mind being wrong. The real issue for teslas has got to be the potential complete destruction of the market for the model Y if the CT is anywhere close in price.
Way more storage, way more capability, way faster charging, no more need for wraps or ppf to protect garbage paint, way more room for 5 people.
I personally believe that keeping it to 5 passengers was already a move to protect the X & Y

Agreed
And then there's CYBRVAN....
The Osborne Effect' is the interesting question. imo

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

guys, cost analysis and pricing strategy are correlated but not necessarily, if someone could provide a solid cost breakdown and then apply a 20-30% margin on top of that, your estimate of CT's price is well in sight. Say, 20% if Tesla wants to make an affordable truck and 30% if they want to make an affordable show truck

 

[Coolbreeze704]

guys, cost analysis and pricing strategy are correlated but not necessarily, if someone could provide a solid cost breakdown and then apply a 20-30% margin on top of that, your estimate of CT's price is well in sight. Say, 20% if Tesla wants to make an affordable truck and 30% if they want to make an affordable show truck

I think the Cybertruck will be a step change in FSD take rate compared to 3 and Y which will lead to increased margin. The next gen platform will be the BIG step change in take rate.

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

I think the Cybertruck will be a step change in FSD take rate compared to 3 and Y which will lead to increased margin. The next gen platform will be the BIG step change in take rate.

I confess I want CT to be cheaper

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

They've added mechanically complex features like 4WS, rear screen etc. They are behind getting the 4680 cells to where they need to be. There has been inflation. Elon has said it will be a great product but "unfortunately" the price has changed. They have massive demand and little supply. The CT will NOT be the same or cheaper as when it was revealed.

That said, I do think they plan for it to be a semi-affordable vehicle, like other full size trucks are today. I just don't think it will be this year. We'll see a low volume of trucks - 30k at most this year, and they will probably be top spec and expensive. Then as battery production ramps up and production kinks are worked out, they'll launch a mainstream model early-mid 2024 at a decent price. They may reduce prices for the full lineup. But they won't lose money this year by selling it cheap when they can't produce it cheap, and when there are a bunch of buyers willing to pay top dollar to get one of the first few thousand.

 

[Crissa]

If you’re talking obligation to offer any particular vehicle or feature. they have no such legal obligation

a customer-relations aspiration to live up to, maybe - but there’s no legally binding terms at play here

They have more than aspirations. They would be criminally liable if they did not do everything in their power to fulfill these orders.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twentieth_Century_Motor_Car_Corporation

There's a fun movie about that.

https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a35366583/liz-carmichael-dale-documentary/

From your Cybertruck Order Agreement:
"Pre-Order Price, Taxes and Official Fees. The pre-order price of the Vehicle will be confirmed in your Vehicle Configura􏰁on and Final Price Sheet. As you may have only configured part of your Vehicle, any pre-order price provided to you in advance of the Final Price Sheet is only being offered to you as an estimate and is subject to change."

Thank you for not contradicting my point. Contracts cannot violate state and federal laws.

With the verbage on the site when they launched the reservation, Tesla failing to honor atleast FSD pricing for those that were lead to believe it was `secured` would lead to a very hard to defend class-action.

And in California, failing to live up to that sort of promise is a criminal offense.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

They've added mechanically complex features like 4WS, rear screen etc. They are behind getting the 4680 cells to where they need to be. There has been inflation. Elon has said it will be a great product but "unfortunately" the price has changed. They have massive demand and little supply. The CT will NOT be the same or cheaper as when it was revealed.

Tesla has recently said what 4680 cells would cost—Roughly $70/ kWh. That’s not quite as low as anticipated on battery day, but not too much higher.

But Tesla is getting a pretty massive federal incentive for manufacturing those cells and packs inside the US. That drops the cost by $45/ kWh tax, making the effective cost of the pack $25/ kWh. That is roughly HALF the cost projected on battery day.

Cost of the pack is going to end up $3,000 - $5,000 less due to that government windfall. Easily offsetting the cost of adding 4WS and the console, and quite a bit else.

Musk certainly suggested price of the truck would adjust _based on inflation_ not some arbitrary sky high numbers people pull out their bums.

 

[cvalue13]

They would be criminally liable if they did not do everything in their power to fulfill these orders

I’ll admit I’m not admitted to practice law in CA, but I’m admitted elsewhere.

True enough that “contracts cannot violate state and federal law” - leaves the issues of whether this is a contract in the first place, and if so what for exactly, and whether anything about it violates state or federal law.

If you’re a CA attorney telling me that in CA something about this refundable $100 non-deposit** generates criminal liability for Tesla should they fail to not produce the CyberTruck materially as presented in 2019, then I defer.

**what little I understand of CA law on this point is that the payment not being a deposit for the vehicle is a perhaps critical distinction; this is instead a “Pre-Order Payment” is “not made or entered into in anticipation of or pending any conditional sale contract.” The “Pre-Order Payment” instead covers certain administrative costs of future configuration of a future vehicle, and if Tesla produces a vehicle, then Tesla must offer whatever vehicle they produce to the customer however configurable, at which point if the customer decides to enter into a sale contract for that offered vehicle, Tesla is on the hook to sell.

 

[Crissa]

I’ll admit I’m not admitted to practice law in CA, but I’m admitted elsewhere.

True enough that “contracts cannot violate state and federal law” - leaves the issues of whether this is a contract in the first place, and if so what for exactly, and whether anything about it violates state or federal law.

If you’re a CA attorney telling me that in CA something about this refundable $100 non-deposit** generates criminal liability for Tesla should they fail to not produce the CyberTruck materially as presented in 2019, then I defer.

**what little I understand of CA law on this point is that the payment not being a deposit for the vehicle is a perhaps critical distinction; this is instead a “Pre-Order Payment” is “not made or entered into in anticipation of or pending any conditional sale contract.” The “Pre-Order Payment” instead covers certain administrative costs of future configuration of a future vehicle, and if Tesla produces a vehicle, then Tesla must offer whatever vehicle they produce to the customer however configurable, at which point if the customer decides to enter into a sale contract for that offered vehicle, Tesla is on the hook to sell.

I'd answer your question with a citation, but the California Department of Consumer Affairs is updating their website and all the URLs I have are invalid now x-x

https://www.dca.ca.gov/logo/index.shtml
And yes, even their announcement is kinda busted, because it only talks about their logo!

-Crissa

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

Nothing is legally guarantied on the truck price. The FSD is very much guarantied. Moral/reputation obligations are another point of discussion.

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