More Tesla price cuts === cheaper Cybertruck (6 oct)

[Ogre]

Words, but not actions by Tesla.

He was agreeing with a Tweet by Elon.

So yeah, words from Tesla. There are quite a few about TAM and affordability. People just tune them out when they want to invent prices.

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[TBONO]

Tesla doesn't even crack the Top 20. Here's the top ten:

1. Apple (AAPL)
2. Google (GOOGL)
3. Amazon (AMZN)
4. Microsoft (MSFT)
5. Coca-Cola (KO)
6. Samsung (SMSN)
7. Toyota (TSE)
8. Mercedes-Benz (DAIG)
9. McDonald’s (MCD)
10. Disney (DIS)

There’s a ton of such lists. A Google output summarizing various related sources has Tesla up there:

 

[TBONO]

The only things in that list that are new are rear steering and screen. Sooooo. Yea, considering all the, this is so cheap to manufacture, we don't even need paint talking points. Seems about right to me

We don’t know when it will be cheap to manufacture. It may take quite some time.
since Tesla has taken the industry lead role by adjusting its vehicle pricing very dynamically. not far-fetched to imagine that it will start with price being high, since demand is high and costs are high, and then reduce it, once at scale with lower costs and potential competitive pressure?

 

[cal]

If it’s <$80K
And income <
$300,000 for married couples filing jointly
$225,000 for heads of households

I seriously doubt it will be under $80k just based the current e-truck market. CT will not be a threat to the cheaper Lightnings or the Rivian until much later.

 

[Gurule92]

I seriously doubt it will be under $80k just based the current e-truck market. CT will not be a threat to the cheaper Lightnings or the Rivian until much later.

If they're close, Tesla usually makes them under tax credit.

Only way I see them not fitting in tax credit is if quad is first (if it even exists)

 

[Gurule92]

Any way CT trimotor or quad will qualify for the fed tax credit? Or is it assumed that the base price will be too high?

I'm on the, it will qualify train.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I seriously doubt it will be under $80k just based the current e-truck market. CT will not be a threat to the cheaper Lightnings or the Rivian until much later.

That’s like saying Model 3 isn’t a threat to the Camry or Mazda 6.

 

[cvalue13]

Only way I see them not fitting in tax credit is if quad is first (if it even exists)

if you’re limiting your discussion to MSRP, then fair enough

here and in a few other threads folks seem to be reducing the credit eligibility down to the MSRP and income limits. But there’s still the battery assembly and critical minerals arms needing satisfied.

Seems folks are certain the CT’s batteries are assembled in North America. I haven’t followed to know from where that certainty comes. So maybe the $3,750 assembly req is satisfied.

But under the critical minerals req I don’t think anyone, including the IRS, yet knows if Tesla’s batteries (nor anyone else’s batteries) will qualify in 2023, much less a year or two out.

By the time CTs are getting delivered at any scale, it will be 2024 when the CT’s batteries will need to satisfy the 50% critical minerals requirement. Many in this forum won’t see one until ‘25.+ when higher it’s 60%c or ‘26 when it’s 70%.

And I don’t see Tesla changing much about their supply chain only in order to achieve a $3,750 credit for their customers - that’s a good bit harder than merely throttling MSRP if it happens to be within a stone’s throw.

In all, only adding that - if an optioned trim is below $80K and if a buyer’s income is below the ceiling - 1/2 the credit may be in reach, but no one can say if the other 1/2 is available

 

[Gurule92]

if you’re limiting your discussion to MSRP, then fair enough

here and in a few other threads folks seem to be reducing the credit eligibility down to the MSRP and income limits. But there’s still the battery assembly and critical minerals arms needing satisfied.

Seems folks are certain the CT’s batteries are assembled in North America. I haven’t followed to know from where that certainty comes. So maybe the $3,750 assembly req is satisfied.

But under the critical minerals req I don’t think anyone, including the IRS, yet knows if Tesla’s batteries (nor anyone else’s batteries) will qualify in 2023, much less a year or two out.

By the time CTs are getting delivered at any scale, it will be 2024 when the CT’s batteries will need to satisfy the 50% critical minerals requirement. Many in this forum won’t see one until ‘25.+ when higher it’s 60%c or ‘26 when it’s 70%.

And I don’t see Tesla changing much about their supply chain only in order to achieve a $3,750 credit for their customers - that’s a good bit harder than merely throttling MSRP if it happens to be within a stone’s throw.

In all, only adding that - if an optioned trim is below $80K and if a buyer’s income is below the ceiling - 1/2 the credit may be in reach, but no one can say if the other 1/2 is available

As far as I know the only batteries by Tesla that don't qualify are LFP so far. And CT won't be LFP. But idk for sure. Even if the battery doesn't count half is better than 0

 

[Huntsman]

They knew prices of the truck market when they announced it. They had it priced same as Y. Why would that change?

I gotta think you compare your product to the competition - how much does the F-150 EV cost, not just the base, but equivalent to the CT? When CT was unveiled, there was talk of the Rivian, no hummer, no lightning, no competition. No surprise, CT debut comparable to the F-150, the largest selling PU truck. After you compare CT to the competition, then figure cost to produce the CT - it should be well under the competition. Finally, Elon is right, affordability has to be considered. While we all desire a CT, we all have a price that we’ll walk away from the dream. Elon knows a few of us are crazy and will pay anything but for most of us, it has to be priced in our ball park or else.

 

[Gurule92]

I gotta think you compare your product to the competition - how much does the F-150 EV cost, not just the base, but equivalent to the CT? When CT was unveiled, there was talk of the Rivian, no hummer, no lightning, no competition. No surprise, CT debut comparable to the F-150, the largest selling PU truck. After you compare CT to the competition, then figure cost to produce the CT - it should be well under the competition. Finally, Elon is right, affordability has to be considered. While we all desire a CT, we all have a price that we’ll walk away from the dream. Elon knows a few of us are crazy and will pay anything but for most of us, it has to be priced in our ball park or else.

I'm pretty sure Tesla doesn't think of the ev trucks as the competition tbh. They are considering gas trucks as the real competition. The rest of your post is legit tho

 

[cvalue13]

As far as I know the only batteries by Tesla that don't qualify are LFP so far. And CT won't be LFP. But idk for sure. Even if the battery doesn't count half is better than 0

the problem with the Model 3 isn’t that it’s LFP, it’s that it’s assembled in China. If folks are sure the CT batteries are assembled in NA, so be it. But that assembly requirement is different from the critical minerals req.

Regarding the critical minerals requirement, on April 18th the IRS will publish the list of vehicles that meet the 2023 40% requirement.

Of course the CT won’t be on that list because it’s not being sold yet.

But even hypothetically we’re the CT on that list, it wouldn’t tell us anything about whether it would continue to be eligible in 2024 when the % raises to 50%, or in ‘25 @ 60% etc.

As of today, only Tesla knows. I suspect that on CT release Tesla will be either (1) vocal that the CT in fact meets the critical minerals req, or (2) not mention the topic (because it doesn’t) - all assuming MSRP’s give any reason to discuss it

$3,750 is better than nothing!

 

[Gurule92]

the problem with the Model 3 isn’t that it’s LFP, it’s that it’s assembled in China. If folks are sure the CT batteries are assembled in NA, so be it. But that assembly requirement is different from the critical minerals req.

Regarding the critical minerals requirement, on April 18th the IRS will publish the list of vehicles that meet the 2023 40% requirement.

Of course the CT won’t be on that list because it’s not being sold yet.

But even hypothetically we’re the CT on that list, it wouldn’t tell us anything about whether it would continue to be eligible in 2024 when the % raises to 50%, or in ‘25 @ 60% etc.

As of today, only Tesla knows.

$3,750 is better than nothing!

Yea. Only the lfp are from China because tesla buys from a competitor. I'm thinking at least initially CT will be same chemistry as X and S so hopefully they stay on the list.

 

[cvalue13]

I'm thinking at least initially CT will be same chemistry as X and S so hopefully they stay on the list.

yeah if that’s true, then on the 18th we’ll receive signal from IRS is X is on the list … for 2023

CT reveal will be most telling for longer term qualification

 

[HaulingAss]

I seriously doubt it will be under $80k just based the current e-truck market. CT will not be a threat to the cheaper Lightnings or the Rivian until much later.

The other electric trucks sell in very low volume. Telsa plans to sell the Cybertruck in high volume, thus they will price it much lower than other comparable e-trucks. This isn't rocket science. The other e-trucks are irrelevent, the only real volume competition is ICE trucks. That's what Cybertruck will need to be priced competitively with.

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