The next 6 months will be epic for Tesla

[SpaceYooper]

Is it just me or are we seeing the Tesla trolls come out in full force more recently? It seems there are more on this site lately, more trash articles lately, more "analysts" that that are suggesting don't buy the TSLA dip, etc. Seems like a last ditch effort attack to prevent convince a handful of people that are low on patience to buy something else, don't wait any more while simultaneously saying also don't buy the stock because Tesla is slashing their margins. Seems like a coordinated attack.

I think between now and Labor Day is going to be one of the most exciting times for ever for Tesla. The production CT will start showing up. Production specs and pricing will be published. They will likely reveal their high production smaller car and maybe another new vehicle. The giga factories will produce more then ever. FSD seems to be getting exponentially better. Straubel will become part of the Tesla team again. There's so much more. AND, somewhat unrelated but still good press for EM, Starship will start orbital launches!

I think the disruption to the market caused by the soon be reality CT, and Tesla reducing their prices is causing turmoil from the competition. I have no idea how that translates to the uptick in haters I've had the displeasure of hearing from lately, but I'm excited for Tesla and what the next 2 quarters are going to bring!

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[jerhenderson]

the sudden near inevitability of the CT has them terrified..... in addition to Teslas ability to cut EV prices and be profitable while they cannot.... and Tesla's high volume capability while they cannot.

 

[charliemagpie]

2nd qrt
*** Last year production 258,000 sales 255,000(Shanghai covid)
Predict this qrt production 520,000 sales 470,000


3rd qrt
We can expect the CT
Megapack profits and Megapck orders start to excite the market.
Mexico factory being built and another announced.
More Megapack factory locations
Sales over 500,000.

This is the year of revelation, with 2,1 million sales. 2 billion Megapack profits. EPS ~50% above market estimates.

 

[JBee]

Is it just me or are we seeing the Tesla trolls come out in full force more recently? It seems there are more on this site lately, more trash articles lately, more "analysts" that that are suggesting don't buy the TSLA dip, etc. Seems like a last ditch effort attack to prevent convince a handful of people that are low on patience to buy something else, don't wait any more while simultaneously saying also don't buy the stock because Tesla is slashing their margins. Seems like a coordinated attack.

I think between now and Labor Day is going to be one of the most exciting times for ever for Tesla. The production CT will start showing up. Production specs and pricing will be published. They will likely reveal their high production smaller car and maybe another new vehicle. The giga factories will produce more then ever. FSD seems to be getting exponentially better. Straubel will become part of the Tesla team again. There's so much more. AND, somewhat unrelated but still good press for EM, Starship will start orbital launches!

I think the disruption to the market caused by the soon be reality CT, and Tesla reducing their prices is causing turmoil from the competition. I have no idea how that translates to the uptick in haters I've had the displeasure of hearing from lately, but I'm excited for Tesla and what the next 2 quarters are going to bring!

Maybe a solution is to curate a media stream without the nonsense? Each click they get, each read or view promotes them. If everyone could stop reading the rubbish, then the rubbish wouldn't have a home, and no-one would buy advertising there to promote it.

We need more "journalism", by the people for people, as "intelligence" countermeasures against the intravenously fed narratives that still get everyones eyeball time. Especially to promote ones, that are not warped by any sort of fealty to the coin, and those that wield it.

The world would be a much better place if we wouldn't be so persistent in highlighting the negative, but rather forgive the infirm, and help them see the light. That our time here is fleeting and the most valuable thing we can share.

Happy Easter btw...

 

[SpaceYooper]

CNBC Squawk On The Street this morning..."Now to talk about Tesla let's bring in former Ford CEO...". Spoiler alert; he was critical of Tesla.

 

[S.H.Peterson]

Is it just me or are we seeing the Tesla trolls come out in full force more recently? It seems there are more on this site lately, more trash articles lately, more "analysts" that that are suggesting don't buy the TSLA dip, etc. Seems like a last ditch effort attack to prevent convince a handful of people that are low on patience to buy something else, don't wait any more while simultaneously saying also don't buy the stock because Tesla is slashing their margins. Seems like a coordinated attack.

I think between now and Labor Day is going to be one of the most exciting times for ever for Tesla. The production CT will start showing up. Production specs and pricing will be published. They will likely reveal their high production smaller car and maybe another new vehicle. The giga factories will produce more then ever. FSD seems to be getting exponentially better. Straubel will become part of the Tesla team again. There's so much more. AND, somewhat unrelated but still good press for EM, Starship will start orbital launches!

I think the disruption to the market caused by the soon be reality CT, and Tesla reducing their prices is causing turmoil from the competition. I have no idea how that translates to the uptick in haters I've had the displeasure of hearing from lately, but I'm excited for Tesla and what the next 2 quarters are going to bring!

I ABSOLUTELY agree!

 

[slomo]

I think the buzz Cybertruck will create is not currently priced into TSLA. People who don't follow Tesla closely don't understand what a good vehicle it is likely to be. People who follow Tesla closely but dislike the aesthetic underestimate the vehicle functionally.

I think Cybertruck disrupts the EV pickup/EV large vehicle market. But I don't see CT disrupting the actual pickup market. Too weird. Not enough production even at 2x plan.

The whole idea from 2019 of Tesla needing to shake up the pickup market is now silly. The truck market will now go mostly electric with or without CT. Tesla should have designed a more generally acceptable exterior.

I do appreciate the CT design as an art form that will shake people up. Nice to see something new in a major manufactured product.

Historically I predict that the CT will be viewed as an interesting vehicle but also the result of Musk's vanity and power. It doesn't serve Tesla's long term goals as its sales are self limiting. Tesla should have picked a design that is less divisive, more modifiable, and capable of selling a million plus units.

While I dislike the business decision seeing these freaky things on the road will be fantastic.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

I've heard astroturfers have signed two year noncompete with Tesla.

 

[Dusty]

I think the buzz Cybertruck will . . .

. . . I don't see CT disrupting the actual pickup market. Too weird. Not enough production even at 2x plan.

The whole idea from 2019 of Tesla needing to shake up the pickup market is now silly. The truck market will now go mostly electric with or without CT. . .

. . . CT will be viewed as an interesting vehicle but also the result of Musk's vanity and power. It doesn't serve Tesla's long term goals as its sales are self limiting. Tesla should have picked a design that is less divisive, more modifiable, and capable of selling a million plus units. . .

Car sales are virtually a zero sum game, and that's the problem for OEM trucks makers. Every single CT sale is to a customer who had the ability to purchase an OEM pickup, but for one reason or another decided to get a CT. That's it, that person isn't going to be in the market again for 5-6 years according to stats.

By the 18th month of production, CTs production rate (if it matches the M3 ramp as a worst case) will approach 1 out of every 5 trucks sold on the market in the U.S. Every CT sold takes food right out of the OEMs mouth. Split evenly among OEMs, that's an additional 5%-9% per year of lost sales, right off the top.

Combine that with the fact that (until 2023) truck sales have been dropping about 12% for OEMs yearly. With the CT stealing sales, that now turns it into a 19%-20% end of year decline. That's a gut punch. To make it worse—Ford, GM, and Rivian are years away from selling an EV pickup at a profit.

The CT doesn't make the treadmill they're on get any slower or less steep. It makes it worse. If the CTs start rolling off the line this Summer, 2025 is going to be a wrecking ball. They all have "big plans" that don't even start until 2025. For example, Ford intends to use profits from its truck sales to fund their "EV campus". If their truck sales get kicked in the nuts because of compounding losses... Uh-oh.

The disruption will be due to the fact that the OEMs have a business plan that's already a day-late-and-a-dollar short. They'll be doubly screwed when their half-assed plans are laying at the bottom of the toilet in 2025, and they don't even have a plan B.

 

[slomo]

Car sales are virtually a zero sum game, and that's the problem for OEM trucks makers. Every single CT sale is to a customer who had the ability to purchase an OEM pickup, but for one reason or another decided to get a CT. That's it, that person isn't going to be in the market again for 5-6 years according to stats.

By the 18th month of production, CTs production rate (if it matches the M3 ramp as a worst case) will approach 1 out of every 5 trucks sold on the market in the U.S. Every CT sold takes food right out of the OEMs mouth. Split evenly among OEMs, that's an additional 5%-9% per year of lost sales, right off the top.

Combine that with the fact that (until 2023) truck sales have been dropping about 12% for OEMs yearly. With the CT stealing sales, that now turns it into a 19%-20% end of year decline. That's a gut punch. To make it worse—Ford, GM, and Rivian are years away from selling an EV pickup at a profit.

The CT doesn't make the treadmill they're on get any slower or less steep. It makes it worse. If the CTs start rolling off the line this Summer, 2025 is going to be a wrecking ball. They all have "big plans" that don't even start until 2025. For example, Ford intends to use profits from its truck sales to fund their "EV campus". If their truck sales get kicked in the nuts because of compounding losses... Uh-oh.

The disruption will be due to the fact that the OEMs have a business plan that's already a day-late-and-a-dollar short. They'll be doubly screwed when their half-assed plans are laying at the bottom of the toilet in 2025, and they don't even have a plan B.

Very few people here list owning a full size pickup. Most R1T buyers have never owned a pickup according to Rivian..

The vehicles that the CT replaces will likely make a remarkably variable list. That's how it was with the Model S. One buyers traded a Prius, the next a Bentley Continental GT.

If Tesla wanted to replace large pickups they should have designed a vehicle that appeals to the center of the pickup market

Tesla taking 5% of the high margin truck market doesn't affect the majors cash flow. It's looking like they will take from everyone, which likely hurts no one.

Rivian and the major pickup manufacturers are very lucky Musk wanted the freaky design that is not modifiable for work trucks. If Tesla had a real board of directors the CT would not have happened.

 

[Dusty]

I want you to look at sales numbers from the past 7 years and tell me a single automaker that can take an additional 5% in sales losses to the chin and be A-OK. I smell somebody who thinks the most Googled vehicle on the internet with literally a million pre-orders won't make a splash.

So you think it's "too different" to be successful and turn the pickup market on its head?

You completely fail to realize why it's so different. But that's cool. Because opinions, man.



Yet another comment that's going to age like a hot banana.

 

[charliemagpie]

its the death of a thousand cuts

The only saving grace for legacy trucks ATM is the CT slow ramp and long waiting list. 2 years.

I agree most current Cybertruck orders are likely newbie customers, but it will not be like that once Tesla is in full production.
Future orders will tac on, and these will include a larger percentage of legacy buyers. It will be a heck of a lot more than 5%.

We see signs why legacy feels worried:

1. MSM says Cybertruck is a niche product which will sell only 50,000 units a year.
There's a whole host of reasons this narrative got out there. This FUD will be short lived. One million+ back orders say hello!

2. Ford is building a new 'state of the art facility' to develop and manufacture its new EV truck platform.
They already know CT will be a significantly superior product.

 

[jerhenderson]

I think the buzz Cybertruck will create is not currently priced into TSLA. People who don't follow Tesla closely don't understand what a good vehicle it is likely to be. People who follow Tesla closely but dislike the aesthetic underestimate the vehicle functionally.

I think Cybertruck disrupts the EV pickup/EV large vehicle market. But I don't see CT disrupting the actual pickup market. Too weird. Not enough production even at 2x plan.

The whole idea from 2019 of Tesla needing to shake up the pickup market is now silly. The truck market will now go mostly electric with or without CT. Tesla should have designed a more generally acceptable exterior.

I do appreciate the CT design as an art form that will shake people up. Nice to see something new in a major manufactured product.

Historically I predict that the CT will be viewed as an interesting vehicle but also the result of Musk's vanity and power. It doesn't serve Tesla's long term goals as its sales are self limiting. Tesla should have picked a design that is less divisive, more modifiable, and capable of selling a million plus units.

While I dislike the business decision seeing these freaky things on the road will be fantastic.

honestly your post is weird....both kneeling before the magnificence of the CT while calling it weird and limited and hoping for the regular boring brick of the modern truck. Not enough production at 1 million reservations and 250k+ capability per year? your post is contradictory.. Which is it?

 

[jerhenderson]

Very few people here list owning a full size pickup. Most R1T buyers have never owned a pickup according to Rivian..

The vehicles that the CT replaces will likely make a remarkably variable list. That's how it was with the Model S. One buyers traded a Prius, the next a Bentley Continental GT.

If Tesla wanted to replace large pickups they should have designed a vehicle that appeals to the center of the pickup market

Tesla taking 5% of the high margin truck market doesn't affect the majors cash flow. It's looking like they will take from everyone, which likely hurts no one.

Rivian and the major pickup manufacturers are very lucky Musk wanted the freaky design that is not modifiable for work trucks. If Tesla had a real board of directors the CT would not have happened.

lol now you're coming across as a troll. a real board of directors? like Ford or STELLANTIS who sat on their thumbs humming for the last 10 years? please. Tesla will take from the truck market to be sure from talking to contractors I personally know. I'm a truck guy too but got tired of Fords Electric F150 lies... and Jeeps EV lies.. so I'm getting a CT. the 'freaky' design is great... at least Tesla can build a real truck at volume and not waste my time over the past 10 years like Ford did.

 

[firsttruck]

......
We see signs why legacy feels worried:

1. MSM says Cybertruck is a niche product which will sell only 50,000 units a year.
There's a whole host of reasons this narrative got out there. This FUD will be short lived. One million+ back orders say hello!

2. Ford is building a new 'state of the art facility' to develop and manufacture its new EV truck platform.
They already know CT will be a significantly superior product.

Yup. Ford would not be spending all that money they don't have on the new BlueOval City with battery factory and the 3T next gen pickup truck model except as respnse to Tesla Cybertruck.

Ford knows Cybertruck is going to take significant share from ICE pickup market.

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