Want to rent my cyber for 6 months?

rr6013

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except this line of thinking appears to assume that the halo trim won’t be the lion’s share of available units - which was my assumption.
You might be onto something…you and @JBee

No one has a clue, tell or otherwise what Cybertruck is actually going to platform anymore. SO Until… plebes have to go with what was shown as standard Tesla drive units, plaid CF wrapped motors mentioned. Whatever Quad reveals could halo.

The Big Q then would Tesla platform new motor technology across its entire line to include all Cybertruck varients + car models to max economy of scale for all its vehicles? Doubtful, or we would have heard about a new motor. We have not.

There is no argument for Tesla maintaining dual redundant drive motors. SO it could be EOL downstream if Quad motor technology is scalable, backward compatible and the Quad is just a proof of technology exercise. That’s plausible IMO.
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rr6013

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Rivian is who rattled EM.

Quad isn’t silly. Its just ridiculous that Elon has $65MM on a totally different Cybertruck. AND you can’t order what no longer exists on its website anymore.
Tesla Cybertruck Want to rent my cyber for 6 months? 1BB1EA2D-0372-49BC-9BAD-FEEFB68C8427

This is what Tesla website presents when a buyer clicks on the Cybertruck ORDER button.
 

Crissa

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JBee

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You might be onto something…you and @JBee

No one has a clue, tell or otherwise what Cybertruck is actually going to platform anymore. SO Until… plebes have to go with what was shown as standard Tesla drive units, plaid CF wrapped motors mentioned. Whatever Quad reveals could halo.

The Big Q then would Tesla platform new motor technology across its entire line to include all Cybertruck varients + car models to max economy of scale for all its vehicles? Doubtful, or we would have heard about a new motor. We have not.

There is no argument for Tesla maintaining dual redundant drive motors. SO it could be EOL downstream if Quad motor technology is scalable, backward compatible and the Quad is just a proof of technology exercise. That’s plausible IMO.
The question what motor to use for the CT also relies on how much excess motor production capacity they have for the existing motors. If you need to build new motor production capacity then you might as well make an updated motor design as well, especially if it reduces cost, is easier to build and improves vehicle performance as well.
 

cvalue13

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The maxim has been that $100 bill will stop people from looking elsewhere. But its refundable. Your point is all 650k+ RN could walk away. Understood. That doesn’t translate to imaginary demand.
A $100 bill put down4 years ago (by then) keeps people from walking away? Since then, I’ve bought 4 cars!


However, were I FORD, I would be asking the same question. Ford didn’t get 650k pre-orders for the F-150 Lightning. SO that’s fair to cal B.S.
maybe I misunderstand the comparison, but it seems like apple as and oranges: Ford shut down its domestic-only reservations at 200,000, as the present F-150 based Lightning is a stop-gap model to be limited production and replaced in 2025 with a stand-alone line of BEV truck.

Which brings up another facet of Tesla’s CT reservation numbers that appears soft: when the CT was announced, interest was based in no part on the CT being the only BEV truck. By 2023, and then 2024, and so on, consumers will have a few more choices available and around the corner.
 


rr6013

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The question what motor to use for the CT also relies on how much excess motor production capacity they have for the existing motors. If you need to build new motor production capacity then you might as well make an updated motor design as well, especially if it reduces cost, is easier to build and improves vehicle performance as well.
Cheap, easy and high performance
Tesla Cybertruck Want to rent my cyber for 6 months? 6BBEDAF7-8BBB-4ED2-8BD2-57CE833F284A

2X torque
1/2 weight
1/2 volume
~2X HP

Cheap, easy and high performance - pick two!
 

Crissa

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By 2023, and then 2024, and so on, consumers will have a few more choices available and around the corner.
Will they?

As you point out, the wait lists for Lightning is closed and the one for the Silverado won't even start delivering yet...

-Crissa
 

cvalue13

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Will they?

As you point out, the wait lists for Lightning is closed and the one for the Silverado won't even start delivering yet...

-Crissa
well, more than zero, which was the base case at CT announcement/reservation!

and while Ford stopped reservations, they’ll by then have either delivered or sealed configured orders for many buyers - including myself - who had reservations for both.

meanwhile, Chevy, GMC, Ram and possibly Toyota will have enticed some others to have a brand-loyalty wait, and even Rivian might still be around!

just saying, and I could be biased by my own experience, I think number of $100 refundable CT reservations made upwards of 4-5 years prior (including to SOL international buyers), all aided by the excitement at the prospect of a BEV truck whatsoever, strikes me as potentially soft data
 

Crissa

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well, more than zero, which was the base case at CT announcement/reservation!
...
just saying, and I could be biased by my own experience, I think number of $100 refundable CT reservations made upwards of 4-5 years prior (including to SOL international buyers), all aided by the excitement at the prospect of a BEV truck whatsoever, strikes me as potentially soft data
It's a list that any other company would pay millions of dollars to have.

But it won't be until November next year that anyone will have made a reservation four years prior.

-Crissa
 

cvalue13

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But it won't be until November next year that anyone will have made a reservation four years prior.
Which seems the more relevant time frame to put oneself in the minds of someone deciding whether to convert their registration. And that early on, the few folks lucky enough will be almost foregone conclusions - they’ll either be amped to the exclusivity of an early delivery, or if nothing else, secondary market prices will make it a no brainer to convert the reservation. But a year or more into sales, seems when more normal course reservation conversion decisions will begin.

Where does the '65mm' come from?
650,000 reservations at $100 per

Though, while $65MM sounds like a lot of money to me, it looks to be only about 10 hours of Tesla’s OPEX spend (or 0.0011% of Tesla’s annual OPEX)
 


rr6013

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A $100 bill put down4 years ago (by then) keeps people from walking away? Since then, I’ve bought 4 cars!

maybe I misunderstand the comparison, but it seems like apple as and oranges: Ford shut down its domestic-only reservations at 200,000, as the present F-150 based Lightning is a stop-gap model to be limited production and replaced in 2025 with a stand-alone line of BEV truck.

Which brings up another facet of Tesla’s CT reservation numbers that appears soft: when the CT was announced, interest was based in no part on the CT being the only BEV truck. By 2023, and then 2024, and so on, consumers will have a few more choices available and around the corner.
Oh god… I bought 7 cars weekly in the business but never personally replaced my own ride 4 times in three years. My ride is 25y.o. Expect a CT to ride longer, farther.

It’s apples to apples. No one can buy a Tesla Cybertruck. No one can buy a Ford Lightning. Order books closed on both — 650,000-to-200,000.

Neither FORDe nor Cybertruck RN holders take delivery before 2025, excepting the few fortunate enough to pay princely equivalent sums for the F-150 Lightning and Quad Cybertruck.

Pickup to pickup!
 

JBee

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Which seems the more relevant time frame to put oneself in the minds of someone deciding whether to convert their registration. And that early on, the few folks lucky enough will be almost foregone conclusions - they’ll either be amped to the exclusivity of an early delivery, or if nothing else, secondary market prices will make it a no brainer to convert the reservation. But a year or more into sales, seems when more normal course reservation conversion decisions will begin.



650,000 reservations at $100 per

Though, while $65MM sounds like a lot of money to me, it looks to be only about 10 hours of Tesla’s OPEX spend (or 0.0011% of Tesla’s annual OPEX)
Don't forget there are a lot of Tesla owners who want one, or would even convert their existing Tesla to a CT. There's also a lot of truck commuters and trades that are looking at fuel prices and bang for your buck, who aren't scared of how the wife thinks it looks. Even businesses as this is a money maker. All on all I think the orders by far underestimate demand, especially on the back end where buyers are put off by the long wait list in the hope of snagging a used one instead.

Here in Australia they wouldn't keep up until half the cars on the road would be them. Currently we have second hand 20 year old Suzuki Jimmy's with 200,000miles going for the same price as they were when new. 2 year old Hilux's (Tacoma) are going for 20-30% more than new. Our mines push up demand as well as they go through them every couple years.

And that order book is just from some internet posts, without a single car on the road for people to gawk at. Demand will only increase after production starts, so it doesn't actually matter how many zeros are on the order books now, so long they can't keep up with demand anyway. Be that demand now or after they won't catch up for years to come.

BTW EM said the other week they will be announcing another Giga factory by the end of the year. I wonder where that will be and what models it will do.
 

charliemagpie

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The other Giga was looking like it would be in Canada, If so, I presumed, it would also include a battery plant.

I think incentives only apply to batteries and packs.. not the car. Perhaps the battery component will now be relocated nearby over the border.
 

cvalue13

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I think incentives only apply to batteries and packs.. not the car. Perhaps the battery component will now be relocated nearby over the border.
If you’re speaking of the U.S. tax incentives, the vehicle must be assembled in North America, the battery critical minerals derived from (or recycled in) North America (40% in ‘23, ratcheting up yearly) and battery components assembled in North America (50% in ‘23 ratcheting up yearly), with 0% of battery minerals/component assembly coming from any company with material (typically >10%) ownership by a country of concern (Russia, China, Iran, etc.)

From an auto industry and international trade agreement perspective, North America not the U.S. is the relative geographic area.
 

rr6013

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In my small and casual review of the market, women are the biggest impediment to the cyber truck. Both in my own household, and all around my neighbors and friends, their wives say absolutely no to the cyber truck because it’s too ugly. Doesn’t matter that it’s the wisest choice if you need a truck.
Have not driven a Cybertruck, haven’t seen a CT – never even touched one or part of one. To be fair, few people have. SO its early days, too early to judge anyone when the only thing they have is a media picture of a Cybertruck. Any hesitancy is to be expected. There’s the reason all cars look alike.

AMC iconic WWII Jeep had the same problem back in early 1960’s. Look at them now! JEEP leads Stellantis stable, its strongest marque.
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