RUMOR: Some Reservation Holders Are Receiving Delivery Dates

[FarAway]

So, after reading this thread...

I am assuming it will be ok to ignore the email I received from a Nigerian Prince offering to help me take his upcoming DAY ONE delivery spot (for just a small administrative fee)?

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[Gurule92]

So, after reading this thread...

I am assuming it will be ok to ignore the email I received from a Nigerian Prince offering to help me take his upcoming DAY ONE delivery spot (for just a small administrative fee)?

No thats legit

 

[Greshnab]

The F-150 Lightning is overweight and costs too much to manufacture, so they had to raise the prices very high for what you get (and they are still losing money hand over fist on everyone they sell for as far as the eye can see). It's the best EV pickup on the market right now, but that's not saying much. When you offer this little, at such a high price, the sales figures are going to suffer.

But "value" has two components:

1) How much it costs
2) How much you get

I can easily see fully-loaded, quad motor Cybertrucks with incredible performance and features selling in the $80K range (or even a bit more), in impressive volumes, due to how much value the truck buyer sees. Not in the millions per year, but a lot more than Ford will be able to sell Lightings at a similar price point. Where the Cybertruck will kill the Lightning, is by offering HUGE value in the $60K price range.

At that price you will be able to get a Lightning that is very underwhelming in terms of driving dynamics, range and toughness/durability while the Cybertruck, at the same price point, will blow the Lightning away. So "value" is a two way street. A relatively expensive truck, that offers a lot of value, can sell at high volume, while a truck costing the same amount but without offering nearly as much value, might struggle to sell 50K to 100K per year.

I did some looking at sales figures for luxury vehicles.. and i think the TOTAL volume of sales for vehicles over 80k is not more than 300-350k per year.. so i can't see Tesla selling enough cybertrucks in that range to make a dent.

originally i thought the price was going to be JUST a tiny amount under the limit for the tax credit.. but having reviewed total sales of cars in that price i just don't think there are enough people willing to spend that much on a vehicle.

 

[Greshnab]

I will be patient so they have time to work the kinks out. I think I am close to 200,000 just like my S 197.000 something.

laughs i think i am closer to 2 million

 

[HaulingAss]

I did some looking at sales figures for luxury vehicles.. and i think the TOTAL volume of sales for vehicles over 80k is not more than 300-350k per year.. so i can't see Tesla selling enough cybertrucks in that range to make a dent.

originally i thought the price was going to be JUST a tiny amount under the limit for the tax credit.. but having reviewed total sales of cars in that price i just don't think there are enough people willing to spend that much on a vehicle.

The entire market is changing. For example, people said the same thing about the market for sedans over $50K or the market for compact SUV's at $60K but both the Model 3 and the Model Y were best sellers in those price ranges because buyers found more value in their offerings. Tesla is a disrupter in the auto market and they have changed every market they have entered.

I'm talking about the highest spec Cybertruck with options. The F-150 Lightning and it's revised pricing scheme in the $80K and up category is quite expensive for what you get. When Tesla announces the actual pricing and feature lists, I think legacy truck makers are going to have no way to match the value Tesla will announce. And the story will be similiar on the higher volume trucks Tesla will offer in the $50-$60K range.

Time will tell who is correct here.

 

[cvalue13]

nufacture, so they had to raise the prices very high for what you get (and they are still losing money hand over fist on everyone they sell for as far as the eye can see).

please provide some data of your understanding of these pricing dynamics

then also please provide the metric upon which you are determining “they are still losing money hand over fist on everyone they sell”

THEN, perform the same calculation for every Tesla unit sold for each of the first 10 years of production

you just constantly regurgitate this quip, at least once a day, but so far have provided any backup that remotely scopes the relevance, nor the appropriate comparison to know if “bad” is “worse”

 

[Coolbreeze704]

please provide some data of your understanding of these pricing dynamics

then also please provide the metric upon which you are determining “they are still losing money hand over fist on everyone they sell”

THEN, perform the same calculation for every Tesla unit sold for each of the first 10 years of production

you just constantly regurgitate this quip, at least once a day, but so far have provided any backup that remotely scopes the relevance, nor the appropriate comparison to know if “bad” is “worse”

From my own experience with cell phones. Free was my standard or if it wasn't part of some sign up plan maybe 350. Eventually the phones offered so much efficiency and productivity in my day to day I would spend 500 but the idea of someone spending 1000 or more on a phone seemed stupid.

Now it is a large part of the market as the cell phone transcended from a communication device to talk or text to a money making tool that adds to our ability to be more productive, top notch camera's, ability to talk to my grandson on face time, gps, AI, Teams for work etc.

The Cybertruck will be much more then a truck. It will transcend how we use a truck much like the evolution of the flip phone to the phones we use today. It will be more robot like and it will be capable of much more. It will last much longer bringing greater value to it. It could produce income for us. I believe FSD will happen in the next 18 months and these trucks will have high ROI along with adding great efficiency to our day to day.

With that I am sticking to 54,900 for Dual motor

 

[PilotPete]

Now it is a large part of the market as the cell phone transcended from a communication device to talk or text to a money making tool that adds to our ability to be more productive, top notch camera's, ability to talk to my grandson on face time, gps, AI, Teams for work etc.

There is a direct correlation (thinking of the timelines) between the screen sizes of cellphones and the number of “adult only” sites on the internet. I’m not saying the correlation is direct, just saying it’s a coincident.

The Cybertruck will be much more then a truck. It will transcend how we use a truck much like the evolution of the flip phone to the phones we use today. It will be more robot like and it will be capable of much more. It will last much longer bringing greater value to it. It could produce income for us. I believe FSD will happen in the next 18 months and these trucks will have high ROI along with adding great efficiency to our day to day.

I don’t know if this change is limited to the CT, or to all EVs. First one to figure out FSD and get it approved will have licensing rights that will be able to print money. There is a move by the younger generations away from “ownership” of things, to renting of things. Homes, cars, you name it. There are economic dangers here, as well as manufacturing. If everyone just uses “Tesla-FSD-Uber”, and Elon is correct about the cars driving 4 to 6 trips while you are at work, then you will only sell 20% of the cars you sell today. At the same time, you increase the amount of traffic on the roads. (Before anyone starts typing, the increased traffic comes from all the trips that occur now, plus the empty legs from the drop off to the next pick up)

Heaven help us if all the kids of CT owners discover they can watch “adult sites” on that massive display while recharging…

 

[Rutrow]

So, after reading this thread...

I am assuming it will be ok to ignore the email I received from a Nigerian Prince offering to help me take his upcoming DAY ONE delivery spot (for just a small administrative fee)?

Don’t be silly. NOBODY falls for the Nigerian Prince scam… now if it was a Nigerian PHYSICIAN!!! ?

 

[TyPope]

please provide some data of your understanding of these pricing dynamics

then also please provide the metric upon which you are determining “they are still losing money hand over fist on everyone they sell”

THEN, perform the same calculation for every Tesla unit sold for each of the first 10 years of production

you just constantly regurgitate this quip, at least once a day, but so far have provided any backup that remotely scopes the relevance, nor the appropriate comparison to know if “bad” is “worse”

It is well known that Ford loses money on every EV... enough to call it hand-over-fist.

Apparently, Ford loses $58,333 on every EV sold.
Ford Loses Nearly $60,000 for Every Electric Vehicle Sold - TheStreet

Ford will lose $3 billion on electric vehicles in 2023, it says | Ars Technica

Ford Model e Electric Vehicle Unit Posts $722M Loss In Q1 2023 (insideevs.com)

Tesla lost money at first. I couldn't find a good breakout of that. The difference in the two companies is that Ford had 100 years to develop supplier relationships. Only the battery tech and electric motor suppliers would be new to them, but they still lose money on a new vehicle which is a lot like their existing F-150. It just shows how hard EVs can be.

 

[cvalue13]

It is well known that Ford loses money on every EV... enough to call it hand-over-fist.

Appreciate the convo.

As an initial matter, I would start by saying "it is well repeated that Ford loses money on every EV," but that the people repeating it seem to have little to no understanding of:

(1) how that conclusion is calculated
(2) even if they had the calculated conclusion, whether that's definitionally a bad thing (from the perspective of manufacturing business planning), or
(3) if it's not necessarily a bad thing, but instead a question of degree, how to remotely begin to compare those degrees between comparisons - such as Tesla
(4) even if they had all of the above, the relative lifecycle of comparison

But absent - seemingly - any of the above information, there are folks who with some hypocrisy are willing to offer "proof" from the very same sources they claim to be biased, uninformed, disingenuous, sources of information.

Here's an example of that, which with some innocence you may be unwittingly and accidentally serving as an example:

Apparently, Ford loses $58,333 on every EV sold.
Ford Loses Nearly $60,000 for Every Electric Vehicle Sold - TheStreet

Not speaking now directly of you, but the kool-aid brigade around here will feel free to point to this article from the street as the sum total of their proof that they can re-hash this uninformed quip twice a day.

Those very same folks, imagine their (hypocritical) response if instead these articles from thestreet.com were being posted:

Tesla: The Financial Risk of an Unsafe Company - TheStreet​

​

Once an Electric Car Rockstar, Tesla's Quickly Losing Its Spark - RealMoney (thestreet.com)​

​

Tesla's Biggest Problem Is Not Going Away - TheStreet​

I could literally go on, and on, and on.

Fundamentally, when it comes to defending Tesla, people are so eager to consider nuance, strategy, and risk-adjusted facts.

But zero appetite to do anything more than regurgitate unsubstantiated, unnuanced, quips about other automakers.

Despite the fact that, depending on the method upon which one counts "losing money," Tesla also lost significant money on every unit ever sold, for over a decade.

What does that mean? No clue, unless/until people are willing to engage on arriving at shared definitions and apples-to-apples comparisons.

Until then, these unsubstantiated and unexamined quips about Ford are no more interesting than if every day I continued to post links to the MIRIAD of stories like this:

​

Tesla Loses Money On Every Single Car: Here's Where The Profit Hides (motorbiscuit.com)​

​

Tesla's dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn't come from selling cars | CNN Business​

​

Tesla Loses A Lot Of Money Selling Cars, But Makes It All Back On Credits And Bitcoin (jalopnik.com)​

​

Tesla burns cash, loses more than $4,000 on every car sold | Reuters​

​

The point is, depending on how you calculate things, of course Ford is "losing money" on every BEV, exactly as it planned to, because that's how this works ... just ask Tesla.

Whatever the issues may be with Ford, they are not evidenced by a mere apples-to-oranges quip about ... made tirelessly every single day ... about how Ford loses money on BEVs.

 

[cvalue13]

Tesla lost money at first. I couldn't find a good breakout of that. The difference in the two companies is that Ford had 100 years to develop supplier relationships. Only the battery tech and electric motor suppliers would be new to them, but they still lose money on a new vehicle which is a lot like their existing F-150. It just shows how hard EVs can be.

wanted to separately respond to this different, almost unrelated, set of assertions

until you can describe with particularity how Ford calculates its balance sheets, you have no basis for understanding what your assertions mean here

folks here regularly demonstrate they have very little familiarity with not just how financial statements work in general, but in particular the differences between the way Ford's and Tesla's balance sheets work very differently

That's fine.

What's wild though, is the complete disinterest in discussing it, at risk of not being able to regurgitate towards Ford the same FUD they would have a meltdown over if leveled at Tesla.

The most classic example is people regurgitating Tesla's vehicle margins as compared to other manufacturers. Anyone who regurgitates this as meaningful is only demonstrating that they have almost no familiarity with how these two very different companies characterize and book their per-vehicle "margins."

And people who cant manage even that, certainly aren't prepared to understand the relevant differences between the two company's entire business model and financial statements.

none of which is to say Ford's business may not have problems or challenges - it's only to say that noone here appears to be able to describe them in any sensible way

 

[CyberGus]

I could literally go on, and on, and on.

I hadn't noticed

 

[CyberGus]

From the article on thestreet.com:

"Ford only delivered 12,000 electric vehicles in the first quarter, which means that the carmaker lost $58,333 for each clean car sold during this period."

This does not mean that Ford writes a $59k check every time they sell an EV. It means they've invested billions in factories, tooling, engineering, training, etc. but have only started ramping production. If they produce at a higher rate, the "loss per vehicle" will drop (eventually turning into a profit hopefully).

Conversely, if I sell $1000 gold bars for $500, I will never "make it up in volume". But that's not what Ford is doing.

 

[cvalue13]

This does not mean that Ford writes a $59k check every time they sell an EV. It means they've invested billions in factories, tooling, engineering, training, etc. but have only started ramping production. If they produce at a higher rate, the "loss per vehicle" will drop (eventually turning into a profit hopefully).

Yes and I’d add that there are several maneuvers within Ford whereby this $59K doesn’t tell the entire story.

I’ll give one key example:

• these figures are known only because/After Ford segregated it’s BEV business unit from BOTH it’s ICE and it’s fleet business unit
• regarding the fleet business unit, 5) thr BEV unit sells their vehicles directly to the Fleet business unit, presumably at some internal/wholesale preferred rate - meaning the BEV BU is booking some untold numbers of vehicles at steeper “loses” than would be the case if they were selling to dealerships
• Meanwhile, Ford’s fleet unit is then selling those units at its own per-vehivle margins, which are realized to the Fleet BU, not the BEV BU
• Fleet, in addition to selling the vehicles, also sells various long-term contract services on recurring basis (eg fleet management software, maintenance programs, charging infrastructure, etc.) - which services all tend to have higher, recurring, fees/margins

Accordingly, from the Ford parent company perspective, we don’t know the net “loses” on BEV sales, all things considered. We know the BEV unit is taking loses on its books, but that accounts allSo for these low margin sales to the fleet unit. Meanwhile the fleet unit is booking income off both the actual to-customer sales of those vehicle units, together with the services fees generated.

Sonin addition to everything you’ve stated, just one of a dozen such nuances means we don’t know if the all-in losses from the top-co perspective.

there are a half dozen such nuances that I’m aware of, and I’m not an insider.

meanwhile, on the Tesla side of the books, they pull a few crafty - and unusual - maneuvers on their books To arrive at their per-vehicle margin numbers. Those maneuvers are only available to Tesla, not Ford, in virtues of how they book pieces of their integrated distribution channel.

if Tesla were forced to book their per-vehivle margins the same was Ford does, it’s unclear exactly how profitable each Tesla would appear “on paper.”

which is precisely the problem of reducing complex balance shirts to various on paper glimpses. They’re both true, and irrelevant, depending on what you choose to focus on or care about.

I’m not blaming either company for playing hide the ball. That’s the game of a public company. But to take “on paper” figures such as these on their face is … armature.

to then try and COMPARE those on paper figures across two very differently structured companies, with very different business models, is the job of sensationalist journalists or YouTubers who value emotional impact over intellectually honest assessment.

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