Will MSRP’s and trim levels be revealed in configuration e-mails or Tesla announcement?

[greggertruck]

I remember the Model 3 rollout fairly well, but I thought I would spend some time actually researching the Model 3 and the Model Y rollouts to provide some data points about this and other similar discussions about pricing and the initial rollout of cars.

Model 3 Important Dates and Info Concerning Orders
The Model 3 rollout was make or break for Tesla. It was their first attempt at a true mass produced car. Before the Model 3 they were only making around 30k cars per quarter in total. The ramp up to the Model 3 required Tesla to learn a lot about manufacturing and they stumbled a bit, going through "Production Hell". They finally hit their stride in 2018 after doing alot of out of the box thinking including setting up a production line in a tent at Fremont.

March 31st, 2016 - Tesla Model 3 Announcement Event
July 28th, 2017 - Delivery Event and Employee Reservation Emails Went Out to Employees
Nov 21, 2017 - Real customers begin receiving invites to configure. First Production Model 3 (35,000) was LR RWD (+$9,000) with Premium Upgrades (+$5,000) for a total of $48,000. This matched announced pricing from the announcement event, though you couldn't opt out of the Premium Upgrades. This is the first time release pricing was confirmed I believe. Pricing matched announced pricing.
Nov 25, 2017 - First real customer deliveries occur.
4th Quarter 2017 - Model 3 Delivered in Quarter - 1,550 (1550 Total)
1st Quarter 2018 - Model 3 Delivered in Quarter - 9,766 (11,316 Total)
2nd Quarter 2018 - Model 3 Delivered in Quarter - 28,578 (39,894 Total)
3rd Quarter 2018 - Model 3 Delivered in Quarter - 55,840 (95,734 Total)
4th Quarter 2018 - Model 3 Delivered in Quarter - 63,150 (158,884 Total)

Notes: Some people felt burned because they packaged the Premium upgrades into all Model 3s sold, you couldn't not select the $5,000 option. The short range Model 3 was not released for a very long time, though it was eventually for a short period of time for those that reserved it.

Model Y Important Dates and Info Concerning Orders
The Model Y was officially announced on March 14th, 2019 during an announcement event. They seemed to handle the order process differently then the Model 3, instead having full orders being placed with you selecting wheels, paint, seats, and all options available on the Model Y and placing a $2,500 deposit down. Their orders were basically already placed as soon as they reserved.

The Model Y started delivering right in March 2020, when the Pandemic was starting. The Model Y rollout was known to have some issues when it came to when people who placed orders received them, namely that people who just Ordered seemed to be as likely to get an order delivered right away as those who placed orders in 2019. Some people were placing an order in March 2020 and immediately received a confirmation and were asked to select a delivery date.

I don't have Model Y Delivery numbers per quarter because Model 3 and Model Y are grouped together as a single line item on reporting from Tesla.

March 14th, 2019 - Tesla Model Y Announcement Event
March 14th, 2019 - Orders for Model Y were opened up. These were a bit different then for Model 3, requiring a $2,500 payment, and having you configure all options.
Feb 26th 2020 - Steps to select Delivery Location, enter Registration, Trade-in, and Payment Methods appeared in some customer accounts for Performance Model Y orders. Text messages started going out to complete steps.
Mar 7th 2020 - More Customer account open up to enter their information, now for some LR AWD customers.
March 12, 2020 - Customers begins setting delivery dates as VINS are assigned.
March 13, 2020 - Customers begin accepting delivery. This includes customers outside of California in other states, Tesla did not limit initial rollout to California.

Pricing - Tesla did change the pricing from the Announcement to the Rollout. They reduced pricing on the Model Y to bring everything in line with the Model 3. EDIT: This change was actually made in July 2020, so few months into deliveries. First deliveries were at Announced Pricing I believe.

Trim	Announcement Price	July 2020 Price
Dual Motor AWD	$51,000	$49,990
Performance	$60,000	$59,990

Edit: Please note, I did not have an order for a Model Y, so I didn't pay as much attention to it and know less about the actual order process. Its possible I might be incorrect about something. If you were an early Model Y recipient and something is incorrect based on your experience, please correct me. This based on my memory and digging through forum threads.

This really should be stickied for everyone. Good work

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[greggertruck]

I was going to ask @greggertruck the same thing.

Spill your intel, greg!

I was indeed referring to earnings call.

Regardless of what is said there, I know how I feel about what I have seen going on. But they may choose that as a good time to give more details for release plans. I don’t expect specs per say, but someone will ask the question and it will get some details we are all hungry for, regarding launch and spec reveal plans.

 

[Regenshire]

March 2019
Trim
Standard Range 230 mile $39,000
Long Range RWD 300 mile $47,000

Many customers waited for the LR RWD.
In February 2021 Tesla announced that it was not going to produce the Long Range RWD model. Customers were told to buy a AWD or their order would be cancelled.

In February 2021 Tesla also discontinued the small number of standard range vehicles it had produced.

Lesson: no one should count on specific variants being available at launch or perhaps ever. Tesla opens reservations on the initial variants to test pricing and interest.

Thanks for the additional information about those trims. I added a line for each to my post.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I’m looking forward to guidance next week. The appropriate question should be asked.

Do you really think that they will answer that question at the quarterly meeting (isn't that on the 23rd and not next week?)?

 

[Regenshire]

This really should be stickied for everyone. Good work

I have considered making it its own thread with an additional section detailing Cybertruck history so far.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I'm just patiently waiting as we are close now than we were when I place my order. Knowing I will have my truck soon is exciting.

As the time gets shorter my patience seems to be waning. I would say that I am being patient, since I have no choice, but it is more of a nervous patience

 

[greggertruck]

Do you really think that they will answer that question at the quarterly meeting (isn't that on the 23rd and not next week?)?

There will be two ends to the info we may get, as usual.
The deck
The call

I expect similar to Q2 deck and call

Hopefully they reiterate Q3 first deliveries. That’s really all I expect on the call. We are very very close now, so there may be more juice than before. They simply did not have the answers before now. They probably have a lot more answers now than even at shareholder day.

 

[cvalue13]

I don't have Model Y Delivery numbers per quarter because Model 3 and Model Y are grouped together as a single line item on reporting from Tesla.

Two things:

First, regarding your Model 3 quarterly deliveries - i can't tell from your post whether you're citing US deliveries, NA deliveries, or global? We presume CT will be NA for forseeable future, if not US only for a period?

As for Model Y production numbers, I don't have quarterly numbers, but analysts like Edmonds look at U.S. vehicle registration data to back-into the following annual Model Y deliveries in U.S.:

• Model Y in 2023 (1Q stub/current year): 93K (or 400K YE extrapolation)
• in 2022: 252K
• in 2021: 190K
• in 2020: 84K (3Q stub/release year)

mapping the above numbers, over any data on average sales price (or even just entry model price and actual delivery availability) would be interesting/telling

 

[cvalue13]

I have considered making it its own thread with an additional section detailing Cybertruck history so far.

given current posture of CT, it would also be interesting to include the relevant timelines of alpha/beta/release candidate timing, vs "handover event" timing, vs first production unit timing

i did some of that for the model 3 here (eg ~4mo between handover event and first production unit coming off the line) and the model Y (a different history / approach), but now i can't find that post

 

[Regenshire]

Two things:

First, regarding your Model 3 quarterly deliveries - i can't tell from your post whether you're citing US deliveries, NA deliveries, or global? We presume CT will be NA for forseeable future, if not US only for a period?

As for Model Y production numbers, I don't have quarterly numbers, but analysts like Edmonds look at U.S. vehicle registration data to back-into the following annual Model Y deliveries in U.S.:

• Model Y in 2023 (1Q stub/current year): 93K (or 400K YE extrapolation)
• in 2022: 252K
• in 2021: 190K
• in 2020: 84K (3Q stub/release year)

mapping the above numbers, over any data on average sales price (or even just entry model price and actual delivery availability) would be interesting/telling

The Model 3 quarterly deliveries are Global, though realistically they are only for North America for this time period.

I know for a fact that in 2018 there was a brief period of time where Tesla prioritized Canadian deliveries over US deliveries to get them delivered before a change in EV incentives in Canada occurred, so these numbers include Canada.

I don't believe there were any deliveries of Model 3 outside of NA in the first year, though I could be wrong.

 

[Regenshire]

given current posture of CT, it would also be interesting to include the relevant timelines of alpha/beta/release candidate timing, vs "handover event" timing, vs first production unit timing

i did some of that for the model 3 here (eg ~4mo between handover event and first production unit coming off the line) and the model Y (a different history / approach), but now i can't find that post

Do you recall when the Model Y handover event was / or if there was one? I was sure they had one, I can clearly remember watching it and it being really short and not having much information at all, just like a couple dozen vehicles being "delivered". But I can't find any video of it, dates, or information on it at all.

I wanted to list the time between that event and actual deliveries, but couldn't find when it occurred.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

While i understand people looking at the Model X and Model Y rollout plans etc for history.. you also have to look at where the company was. With model X, as I recall Tesla was barely holding on.. with Model Y they weren't THAT profitable... so with both of those cars they needed to make a big splash with immediate high volume sales.

Tesla would like for the CT to make a lot of money, however if it were to fall flat on it's face.. it wouldn't bankrupt or even really hurt Tesla's financial position at all.. they are flush with cash, and making more rapidly.

This rollout CAN be all about bringing out a new car in the best manner for the brand and model.. and NOT about bringing in enough money to stay afloat... So while history is a good guide normally, this roll out is unique in tesla's history, so history may not have ANYTHING to guide us here.

I do not believe that Tesla will take a beating on the Cybertruck like Ford is taking on the Mach-e and Lightning. Rather, I suspect that the worst-case scenario will be that Tesla will drop their profit margins into the single digits for a while while they dial in the manufacturing, etc. I am pretty sure Tesla planned for most eventualities and will split the difference between having to fudge the pricing and having to fudge the margins. I have no expertise in this area but it is a gut feeling for how Tesla speaks and operates.

 

[chadisawesome]

It is promising to see that the first quarter was over 1000 deliveries of model 3. My reservation number is <1000 so I'm looking at being one of the first to receive the truck. Even if they do a regional roll out, I'll be in the first group for sure.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

There will be two ends to the info we may get, as usual.
The deck
The call

I expect similar to Q2 deck and call

Hopefully they reiterate Q3 first deliveries. That’s really all I expect on the call. We are very very close now, so there may be more juice than before. They simply did not have the answers before now. They probably have a lot more answers now than even at shareholder day.

I expect the deck to show that the Cybertruck has moved from Tooling to Preproduction. If Elon mentions it during the earnings call I suspect it will be to say that they are on schedule. When the pointed questions are asked I suspect he will hedge as he always does ("we will leave that for the delivery event") and that will be the end of it until our next milestone is revealed by video.

 

[Greshnab]

I expect the deck to show that the Cybertruck has moved from Tooling to Preproduction. If Elon mentions it during the earnings call I suspect it will be to say that they are on schedule. When the pointed questions are asked I suspect he will hedge as he always does ("we will leave that for the delivery event") and that will be the end of it until our next milestone is revealed by video.

I suspect we will get more pictures of the assembly line.. which will provide a LOT of data!!

keep in mind we will be far into mid july by then and they will only have 12 weeks left in the quarter!

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