Article - With the Cybertruck, Tesla Faces Its Edsel Moment

[RayzorBEV]

Cybertruck has captured the worlds imagination

Great if they make this as a costume for Halloween

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[RayzorBEV]

Can you spot the one that's different?

Spoiler: ANSWER

Trick question, there's no Cybertruck shown.

Yeah, the one that is different is missing from the lineup; the Model Y

 

[Crissa]

Anyone that listens to and/or quotes Ross Gerber doesn’t deserve my read. Sadly I had to read almost to the end to get that. Just a hit piece by someone without knowledge that doesn’t want knowledge.

I don't see it as a hit piece?

It's saying this is a do or die moment, like the Edsel was. And it says that all these things people said were headwinds for the Cybertruck, look like they won't be. There's clearly lots of headroom for price, there's alot of demand, and so it's probably not an Edsel in collapse.

-Crissa

PS, journalists don't normally get to choose the headlines anymore.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I don't see it as a hit piece?

It's saying this is a do or die moment, like the Edsel was. And it says that all these things people said were headwinds for the Cybertruck, look like they won't be. There's clearly lots of headroom for price, there's alot of demand, and so it's probably not an Edsel in collapse.

-Crissa

PS, journalists don't normally get to choose the headlines anymore.

Elon said in the very beginning that Tesla may not sell many Cybertrucks but that he didn't care he was going to make it anyway. We know from Twitter that he is prone to doing things in this way. Personally I hope that the Cybertruck is wildly successful (for purely selfish reasons if no other). I did read the whole article and I stand by my evaluation, right or wrong.

 

[Greshnab]

“The Edsel, named after Edsel Ford, the son of Henry Ford, is the notorious automotive failure, the one that stands out above the rest.”

You have a different idea of what positive is than I do.

you have to start the next section that starts out...

It won’t be. Not by a long shot. Edsels never really found a market niche.

so yeah they are positive.. after explaining how big a flop edsel was and why.. they say that won't happen to the CT.. they don't even hedge it and say not expected or not likely they flat out state won't be.

 

[Ogre]

you have to start the next section that starts out...

It won’t be. Not by a long shot. Edsels never really found a market niche.

so yeah they are positive.. after explaining how big a flop edsel was and why.. they say that won't happen to the CT.. they don't even hedge it and say not expected or not likely they flat out state won't be.

Speaking of not reading far enough….

 

[Sirfun]

Looks like a Cybertruck to me

I see 2 Mustangs running in opposite directions, away from goats with ducks on their heads.

 

[dalton108]

Here's the full article from Barron's:

With the Cybertruck, Tesla Faces Its Edsel Moment

Tesla’s Avant-Garde Cybertruck is coming any day now. It’s the most important vehicle for the company since the 2017 introduction of its more affordable Model 3 electric vehicle.

The 3 helped usher in an era of growth, profits, and incredible stock gains for Tesla. The Cybertruck could do the same, or it could end up being Elon Musk’s Edsel.

The Edsel, named after Edsel Ford, the son of Henry Ford, is the notorious automotive failure, the one that stands out above the rest. It was more of a brand, like Pontiac or Saturn, than a single car. Ford Motor (F) launched a seven-model lineup in 1958. The company killed Edsel off in late 1959. Weak demand, weak reviews, weak customer reaction, all following weak product development processes, conspired to doom the nameplate.

Car buyers have been waiting for the oddly shaped Cybertruck since 2019. Now that it’s about to arrive, investors are wondering if the long-delayed pickup will be as big a flop.

It won’t be. Not by a long shot. Edsels never really found a market niche. They were large and launched during a recession and at a time when customers were beginning to look for more fuel-efficient options.

Price isn’t a barrier for Cybertruck either. It was designed to cost roughly $40,000 to $70,000. That was a price list set in 2019, however. Inflation has impacted everything. Still, the Cybertruck won’t be priced out of the mainstream truck market. New model year 2023 pickup trucks cost an average of about $64,000, Cox Automotive tells Barron’s. The average transaction price for a new 2023 F-150 Lightning is almost $87,000.

The market isn’t an issue, but what about the product? The Cybertruck will have new technology. It’s based on an “exoskeleton-based” design, says Elon Musk. That’s essentially a unibody design, explains Munro and Associates President Corey Steuben. Munro is a go-to source for manufacturing, design, and cost data for both auto investors and industry denizens.

Unibody isn’t very common. Most vehicles body-on-frame, which is exactly what it sounds like. The car body is dropped on a chassis. A unibody integrates the chassis and frame together, making it stronger and lighter. Lighter for an EV means more miles of range per unit of battery capacity.

The Cybertruck will be unique. While there are smaller truck models such as the Ford Maverick and Honda Motor (HMC) Ridgeline, large ones are typically body-on-frame. So Tesla is pushing the envelope on weight, strength, and efficiency. Cybertruck will also be able to accept one megawatt direct current charging, which means it will charge very fast with hundreds of miles of range delivered in minutes.

The market is there, the technology is solid, but what about that design? It looks like something out of a mediocre sci-fi film. Future Fund Active ETF (FFND) co-founder and Tesla shareholder Gary Black believes the design works and says it will serve as a rolling billboard for Tesla.

Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management CEO Ross Gerber, who also owns the stock, agrees. “It’s super dope,” he says. “This is a game changer and [Tesla] will sell even more trucks once people see them on the road.”

As Tesla shareholders, both men are inclined to be bullish. Still, initial sales shouldn’t be a problem. Tesla has taken hundreds of thousands of preorders for the vehicle. Not all of those will become sales, but the order backlog should be more than enough to meet expectations for 2023 and 2024 deliveries.

Wall Street expects less than 10,000 Cybertrucks to be delivered in 2023 and fewer than 100,000 in 2024. That isn’t a high bar and Tesla can likely hit those numbers. The Cybertruck might be harder to make, but Tesla produced roughly 84,000 Model Ys in 2020, the first year of that vehicle. It made more than 400,000 Ys in 2021.

What Tesla should do after launching the Cybertruck is produce a more conventional-looking truck on the same tooling to expand Tesla trucks’ addressable market, says Black. It’s a sound idea. Tesla makes multiple cars on each of its platforms. It makes the S and X on the same platform and the 3 and Y on the same platform.

The 3 and the Y were smaller and cheaper than the S and X. After the Cybertruck and its companion product should also come a smaller truck, like a Ford Ranger. That would be Tesla’s global truck. The market for trucks outside the U.S. demands smaller vehicles. The Tacoma-sized Hilux from Toyota Motor (TM) is one of the best-selling trucks in the world.

Trucks are a good long-term opportunity for Tesla. Cybertruck won’t be anything like the Edsel.

??”Then” Barron’s pre-launch.

I don’t recall seeing this post back when it was originally posted and I don’t recall this article. But, I do recall recently saying that I thought the CT was looking more like an “Edsel” situation and believing that to have been a fresh take. I also mentioned the Aztec and other cars as comparisons.

I’ll say this, Wall Street’s projections in the Barron’s article (though conservative) were 100% correct.

?? “Now” Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanoh...=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=forbes

Trigger warning: The article is brutal and some of you cannot handle negative information about your trucks. Look away if you need to.

Except:

Elon Musk’s polygonal pickup is a polarizing sales flop that's missed the billionaire’s volume goal by a staggering 84%. And there’s no sign that things are improving.

The list of famous auto industry flops is long and storied, topped by stinkers like Ford’s Edsel and exploding Pinto and General Motors’s unsightly Pontiac Aztek crossover SUV. Even John Delorean’s sleek, stainless steel DMC-12, iconic from its role in the “Back To The Future” films, was a sales dud that drove the company to bankruptcy.

“I do zero market research whatsoever.”
Elon Musk, November 2019

Judged solely on sales, Musk’s Cybertruck is actually doing a lot worse than Edsel, a name that’s become synonymous with a disastrous product misfire. Ford hoped to sell 200,000 Edsels a year when it hit the market in 1958, but managed just 63,000. Sales plunged in 1959 and the brand was dumped in 1960. Musk predicted that Cybertruck might see 250,000 annual sales. Tesla sold just under 40,000 in 2024, its first full year. There’s no sign that volume is rising this year, with sales trending lower in January and February, according to Cox Automotive.

 

[devdrone6]

??”Then” Barron’s pre-launch.

I don’t recall seeing this post back when it was originally posted and I don’t recall this article. But, I do recall recently saying that I thought the CT was looking it was more like an Edsel situation and believing that to have been a fresh take. I also mentioned the Aztec and other cars as comparisons.

I’ll say this, Wall Street’s projections in the Barron’s article (though conservative) were 100% correct.

?? “Now” Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanoh...=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=forbes

Trigger warning: The article is brutal and some of you cannot handle negative information about your trucks. Look away if you need to.

Elon Musk’s polygonal pickup is a polarizing sales flop that's missed the billionaire’s volume goal by a staggering 84%. And there’s no sign that things are improving.
The list of famous auto industry flops is long and storied, topped by stinkers like Ford’s Edsel and exploding Pinto and General Motors’s unsightly Pontiac Aztek crossover SUV. Even John Delorean’s sleek, stainless steel DMC-12, iconic from its role in the “Back To The Future” films, was a sales dud that drove the company to bankruptcy.



Judged solely on sales, Musk’s Cybertruck is actually doing a lot worse than Edsel, a name that’s become synonymous with a disastrous product misfire. Ford hoped to sell 200,000 Edsels a year when it hit the market in 1958, but managed just 63,000. Sales plunged in 1959 and the brand was dumped in 1960. Musk predicted that Cybertruck might see 250,000 annual sales. Tesla sold just under 40,000 in 2024, its first full year. There’s no sign that volume is rising this year, with sales trending lower in January and February, according to Cox Automotive.

If there is a price drop and the political winds change, then I think sales will go up. But not to 250k per year. That would only happen with a smaller, cheaper version without the bold design possibly.

 

[dalton108]

If there is a price drop and the political winds change, then I think sales will go up. But not to 250k per year. That would only happen with a smaller, cheaper version without the bold design possibly.

I agree with your reasoning, but only up to a point. I just think that the truck is, for lack of a better word, “tarnished.” I don’t know how you can turn it around.

On the one hand, you have the political backlash, but people keep forgetting that a lot of people really, really disliked the truck before politics entered into it. Then, you have the politics on top of that. Then you have the “new” fanboys (now including the proud boys) who are strident, rude and reactionary and can’t handle people having anything even remotely negative to say about their beloved toy no matter how accurate or reasonable the criticism may be.

You basically have ‘Porsche owners’ without the Porsche cachet underpinning it. So, I don’t see this ever getting better, but maybe I’m wrong.

I’ve been clear about this though I don’t really care if Tesla ever sells another CT. If it’s a commercial flop that doesn’t affect me (I mean maybe as a stockholder but …shrug).

I’m thankful that they had the nerve to make it, I’m thankful that I was able to get one and I just don’t care if anybody else does. I’m not emotionally invested in whether it’s a success and I don’t feel a need to be vindicated by the market. It doesn’t do everything I wanted to do and I’m OK with that. It’s a thing of beauty, in my opinion.

At the end of the day it’s beautiful, but it’s also a mess! These things often go together.

 

[not_elon_]

It’s crazy right but now we are all cyberstuck with our golden handcuffs.
The only other current or future vehicles I am interested in are the Scout, R2, electric g wagon, and Ineos Grenadier. That’s the entire list. I hate how every other vehicle looks pretty much.

 

[Mini2nut]

Musk has so much clout with board they probably begrudgingly gave his CT project the green light for production even though they might not have personally approved.

Tesla can easily afford it’s first vehicle “flop” in its short history.

 

[FarAway]

I agree with your reasoning, but only up to a point. I just think that the truck is, for lack of a better word, “tarnished.” I don’t know how you can turn it around.

On the one hand, you have the political backlash, but people keep forgetting that a lot of people really, really disliked the truck before politics entered into it. Then, you have the politics on top of that. Then you have the “new” fanboys (now including the proud boys) who are strident, rude and reactionary and can’t handle people having anything even remotely negative to say about their beloved toy no matter how accurate or reasonable the criticism may be.

You basically have ‘Porsche owners’ without the Porsche cachet underpinning it. So, I don’t see this ever getting better, but maybe I’m wrong.

I’ve been clear about this though I don’t really care if Tesla ever sells another CT. If it’s a commercial flop that doesn’t affect me (I mean maybe as a stockholder but …shrug).

I’m thankful that they had the nerve to make it, I’m thankful that I was able to get one and I just don’t care if anybody else does. I’m not emotionally invested in whether it’s a success and I don’t feel a need to be vindicated by the market. It doesn’t do everything I wanted to do and I’m OK with that. It’s a thing of beauty, in my opinion.

At the end of the day it’s beautiful, but it’s also a mess! These things often go together.

That is an honest assessment. I am also very happy with my CT. It meets my needs and (mostly) exceeds my expectations. I believe only Elon could have pulled this off.

Everyone I have ever let drive mine comes away with a smile on their face and a comment along the lines of "Wow, I had no idea" or "Now, I understand!"

I do hope the market for new CT's continues, if nothing else for the incremental improvements and better accessories an expanding truck base will generate. Even, if TESLA has to suspend CT production, I think the vehicle will continue to be a success just for the proof of concept and new technologies it introduced.

 

[not_elon_]

I would think they can keep the Cybertruck model alive but more at Model S and X delivery numbers. Convert most of the factory in Texas to model Y and 2 production.

 

[dalton108]

I would think they can keep the Cybertruck model alive but more at Model S and X delivery numbers. Convert most of the factory in Texas to model Y and 2 production.

I’m not really a betting man, but if I were, I would probably put money on the CT being the 2nd ever model they retire (original roadster being the 1st) if they don’t retire the S and/or X and it seems, according to Lars and Franz, they have no plans of doing that.

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