Five years to fulfill all current orders? Nooooo!

[cvalue13]

It’s far easier to make an announcement in 21 or 22 knowing what the world looks like than in 19 and having NO idea what was about to happen. And considering that this had never happened before, there was no way to predict…

Not sure COVID had much to do with it

other Tesla’s, pre-COVID, all took about 4 years or more from unveil to actual deliveries

Model S: announced in June 2008 with first customer deliveries officially happening four years later in June 2012

Model X: announced April 2012, customer deliveries three-and-a-half years later in September 2015

Model 3: Musk started talking about regularly since 2006, official unveil April 1, 2016, customer deliveries of (notoriously rough) units in July 2017

Model Y: announced in March 2015 (as Model-3 based with falcon-wing doors), 2017 the Model Y's silhouette was teased to shareholders, June 2018 a new silhouette was revealed, release March 14, 2019, first deliveries May 2020

the four models above each have various plot-twists along the way - missed intended production dates by years, significantly changed features by time of release, initial units notoriously whompy, etc. - that may have also been blamed on a pandemic, had one occurred.

None of which is to salt on Tesla. instead only to say the CT’s plot arch is pretty much down the fair-lane typical

conversely, other OEMs don’t announce until their roadmap to deliveries is significantly more derisked

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[WormtownKris]

Hmm. Ford announced the Lightning in 2021 claiming first sales would be 2022. They managed to maintain that schedule- all during the Covid years. GM announced the Silverado EV in 2022 and kept their schedule to have them on sale in 2023 - all while still recovering from Covid diminished supply lines. So what was Tesla’s excuse? Likely they were enjoying the $100 million interest free loan from all those deposits.

Taking a long existing ICE truck (F150) and retrofitting electric guts and drivetrain is just as difficult as creating a revolutionary design like the CT from scratch, correct? (Rivian's test mules were exactly that- debadged F150 bodies on their skateboard- and were testing ~in plain sight~ in 2018 before the R1T was ever revealed). Comparing apples and aardvarks but go on. ?

 

[jerhenderson]

CT DELIVERY NEWS FLASH! A much better solution for a more realistic update on the elongated CT delivery saga. Is for the geniuses at Tesla to simply filter out all the initial (ridiculously low) "$100 Deposit Want To Be CT Owners - Dreamers" Hence, the deposit should be increased to at least $5K!! You/we will immediately ascertain a more realistic metric of where we stand in regards to the ACTUAL demand vs production delivery ratio. Hopefully the "King Genius X" Elon will take this under consideration? I'm just saying and what say you fellow CT enthusiasts?? Darryl ?

I'm sure that's coming

 

[HaulingAss]

4680-wise tho it doesn't seem like they would have enough ... for the 350 & 500-mile range and filling the number of orders in a reasonable time frame.

• Telse Model Y is ~78 kWh and uses 830 of the 4680 cells.
  
  
• 2.56 times more for 500 mile Cybertruck (200 kWh / 78 kWh).
• Cybertruck 500 mile 200 kWh would require 2128 of the 4680 cells (830*2.56)
  
  
• 1.79 times more for 350 mile Cybertruck (140 kWh / 78 kWh).
• Cybertruck 350 mile 140 kWh would require 1485 of the 4680 cells (830*1.79)

Previous thread on the topic:
Cybertruck (Orders) Demand Would Take 3-4 Years Production to Fulfill Says Musk
Thread starter | Administrator | Jan 31, 2020
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-4-years-production-to-fulfill-says-musk.544/

It's unclear why you think a 350-mile EPA range Cybertruck would require a 140 kWh sized battery. That would imply it would consume a whopping 400 watt hours per mile on the EPA combined drive cycles! This is a bad assumption and that should be obvious if you have been paying attention.

Further, you assume the 4860 cells used in the Cybertruck will have the same energy capacity as those used in the Y. That is also a bad assumption. We know from the 2nd Qtr. Earnings Call that they are already 10% more energy dense.

Without any supporting evidence, you also conclude that it's unlikely Tesla's battery manufacturing capacity would be high enough to fill existing orders in a "reasonable amount of time" without defining what you think is "reasonable" or explaining what you think are the limits to Tesla's battery production.

When Musk said the demand for Cybertruck was more than they could fill in roughly 3-4 years, that is just a very rough division of known pre-orders by his estimated production volume of his anticipated ramp timeline. It's not an actual prediction, because no one knows how this will play out, it's just a simple math excercise. It doesn't take into account all the pre-orders that will never be converted to orders. Nor does it include all the new reservations that will happen between his estimate and the filling of the last pre-order. It's just a rough calculation based on napkin math of how fast Elon thinks they will ramp and how many pre-orders they already have. He knows many will not be filled and many new ones will be added.

I doubt Elon's estimation of Cybertruck's ramp speed is based upon how fast he thinks they can ramp 4680 cells either. Ramping vehicles to high volume is more difficult that ramping raw materials into high volume cell production. It takes much more factory investment, more factory sq. footage, more employees and more suppliers ramping in conjunction to build large, complex products like vehicles vs. cells.

While it's always possible that batteries are the limiting factor to Cybertruck ramp speed, remember, 4680 cells for Cybertruck will be a very small percentage of global battery production and, once the manufacturing process is dialed in to meet all of Tesla's stringent specifications and efficiencies, the battery production lines will be replicated and running at full speed. While we can't know when the production processes become mature enough to do that, I sense that it's more a matter of when, than if. That's not my just wishful thinking, it's based upon managements outlook. If that's the case, the time it takes for Cybertruck production to burn through all existing demand will be limited by how fast Cybertrucks can be produced, not the batteries. And I believe that is how Elon thought of his 3-4 year estimate.

But it's really short-sighted to put a lot of importance into the number of existing reservations because I think they will be dwarfed by new reservations! It's just a convenient number to use so Elon could convey huge demand without having to speculate on future demand, which many would not find convincing because they think Cybertruck is too radically different from what people expect a pickup to look like to find a big market. And that is another misguided belief held by people who think they can see the future better than Musk can!

 

[HaulingAss]

Hmm. Ford announced the Lightning in 2021 claiming first sales would be 2022. They managed to maintain that schedule- all during the Covid years. GM announced the Silverado EV in 2022 and kept their schedule to have them on sale in 2023 - all while still recovering from Covid diminished supply lines. So what was Tesla’s excuse? Likely they were enjoying the $100 million interest free loan from all those deposits.

That's incorrect.

Ford has been working an a pure electric f-150 since they unveiled a working BEV F-150 prototype at the 2008 SEMA show. And they announced they were currently working on bringing it to market in January 2019 (which is before Tesla revealed the Cybertruck in November 2019).

An All-Electric Ford F-150 is Coming...Eventually (motortrend.com)

COVID and the associated supply chain disruption did slow down Tesla's anticipated release, mostly due to battery supply disruption, but to say that Ford moves faster than Tesla flies in the face of all the facts we have at our disposal. Ford has been working on electrifying the F-150 since before Tesla built their first Roadster!

 

[cvalue13]

That's incorrect.

Ford has been working an a pure electric f-150 since they unveiled a working BEV F-150 prototype at the 2008 SEMA show. And they announced they were currently working on bringing it to market in January 2019 (which is before Tesla revealed the Cybertruck in November 2019).

Obviously the point was that Ford didn’t announce a production schedule or models/trims/features/pricing with projected delivery assertion, that they met

Musk started talking about a Tesla truck as early as 2015/16 … the difference is that in 2019 they did a model line unveil with a projected delivery assertion

apples to apples

 

[HaulingAss]

CT DELIVERY NEWS FLASH! A much better solution for a more realistic update on the elongated CT delivery saga. Is for the geniuses at Tesla to simply filter out all the initial (ridiculously low) "$100 Deposit Want To Be CT Owners - Dreamers" Hence, the deposit should be increased to at least $5K!! You/we will immediately ascertain a more realistic metric of where we stand in regards to the ACTUAL demand vs production delivery ratio. Hopefully the "King Genius X" Elon will take this under consideration? I'm just saying and what say you fellow CT enthusiasts?? Darryl ?

It sounds like you are under the misguided assumption that new organic demand for the Cybertruck will not appear from people who never would have even considered an electric car, let alone and electric truck, in late 2019 when the Cybertruck was revealed to the world.

It matters not very much how many of the currently known reservations are actually able and willing to purchase the Cybertruck because new demand will be huge. Those pre-orders should be thought of as a proxy for how many people will want Cybertruck once word gets out that it actually exists and is actually an awesome truck.

Without a doubt, people who place new orders will still only include those who are able to look past mainstream media articles pretending it's a crappy, useless truck with numerous issues that no one in their right mind would buy. Kind of like Models 3 and Y right now, LOL!

 

[Crissa]

Elon's timelines are notoriously... inaccurate

Yeah, but even releasing this year is just reducing him to a normal timeline. Gotta remember the global pandemic once-in-a-hundred-years thing. Well, we hope once in a hundred years or less, but...

And considering that this had never happened before, there was no way to predict…

Well, it happened last in 1918, but global supply chains and shopping-by-mail was only available to a tiny portion of the global population back then. And our systems were, even where they were held back, able to prevent millions of deaths. Which is pretty keen, honestly.

-Crissa

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