Unpopular opinion: I don't think your "reservation" spot matters

[greggertruck]

Because it goes against originally stated frunk size? You really think it was top of the reserver's list like that? Lol

the original frunk was completely different and maybe even smaller, we don't have numbers on that.

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[Gurule92]

the original frunk was completely different and maybe even smaller, we don't have numbers on that.

Right, we have no originally stated size. So it's weird that ppl are mad

 

[RandyS]

My previous experience is with the rollout of the Model 3, and your position in line did matter very much...I have no reason to believe they will change that methodology.

There is also no doubt in my mind that the first trucks sold will be premium priced because of the way they will be configured (to maximize revenue)...

 

[WormtownKris]

From what I can tell, the Model 3 was the last vehicle they did that with, and the biggest driver of that situation was probably that cash was tight, and they wanted to absorb the cost of the production ramp-up as quickly as possible by reducing transport costs early in the ramp.

The first few hundred will probably be local, but I expect them to start shipping them out before they hit the first 1000 or so deliveries. Because they are not under a cash crunch and they want to be able to use local reservations as a buffer, should they have trouble getting enough car carriers at any point in time, they can just sell locally.

What this means is, if you have a low reservation number, be ready for an e-mail out of the blue saying they are ready for you to configure and order!

Agreed. (I realize this is kind of a "Trust Me Bro" survey of one deal, but,) My local service ranger told me that he has serviced (in central Massachusetts) a couple of Model Ys that were in the first 5,000 VINs produced. So, while they certainly will give the keycards at the first delivery event to Giga Texas employees, he feels very confident that they will very quickly pivot to national/ continental distribution.
Another benefit to sending early CTs all over North America is the "evangelistic" effect it will have. Instead of seeing social media flooded with metro Austin truck deliveries/ highway spottings/ Kroger run videos, they'd have actual trucks roaming around in the flesh all over. I think that for all the cynical and negative media coverage of this "CyberTruck folly," once the average EV-curious consumer sees that, "Wow, that crazy-ass CyberTruck really exists, and it is cool AF!" new orders will go through the roof. And I think Tesla realizes this as well.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

That's great news for me then. I never use the frunk on my Model Y. I'll happily be one of the couple hundred

No one likes using their MY frunk because of how flimsy it is. If it was an auto frunk I suspect it would be used a ton more.

I suspect people will be ableto jump ahead if they go for a more expensive model ( just like they did with the MYP vs the MYLR.

 

[jedfoley]

A lot of folks are very excited to talk about where they see themselves in the pecking order for reservations.

I'll be honest, I don't think it matters. We all know that the number of reservations is vastly overstated, that there will be a massive portion of folks who will not follow through or "reserved" multiple trims at launch day, etc. We don't know the true conversion rate, but I think we can all agree it will be significantly lower than the number of folks who put down a measly $100 to reserve a slot.

My (entirely baseless) prediction: When the CT becomes available, Tesla will send out an email to all the $100 reservation holders to spec out their build, and place a down payment on their order of a few thousand dollars. Only then will a true pecking order be defined.

Maybe they batch it out, and the first 25k or 50k to respond will trigger a lock out until production catches back up and another batch of pre-order emails go out.

When I hear about the "millions" of reservations for the CT, I'm just not that worried. I think a lot of people will get cold feet if Tesla sends and email saying "reply within 48hrs and pay a 7k down payment" . Those of us with cash on hand at a moments notice could see ourselves very close to the front of the list regardless of when we placed our $100 reservation.

My reservation is ~3300, and that reservation is now locked for editing by Tesla. I have a second reservation at ~110,000 and that one can still be edited. And as for the people who bail on their reservations, within the first 50,000, I would bet that more than 35,000 follow through.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

A lot of folks are very excited to talk about where they see themselves in the pecking order for reservations.

I'll be honest, I don't think it matters. We all know that the number of reservations is vastly overstated, that there will be a massive portion of folks who will not follow through or "reserved" multiple trims at launch day, etc. We don't know the true conversion rate, but I think we can all agree it will be significantly lower than the number of folks who put down a measly $100 to reserve a slot.

My (entirely baseless) prediction: When the CT becomes available, Tesla will send out an email to all the $100 reservation holders to spec out their build, and place a down payment on their order of a few thousand dollars. Only then will a true pecking order be defined.

Maybe they batch it out, and the first 25k or 50k to respond will trigger a lock out until production catches back up and another batch of pre-order emails go out.

When I hear about the "millions" of reservations for the CT, I'm just not that worried. I think a lot of people will get cold feet if Tesla sends and email saying "reply within 48hrs and pay a 7k down payment" . Those of us with cash on hand at a moments notice could see ourselves very close to the front of the list regardless of when we placed our $100 reservation.

Although the things you say at first are likely correct, what you say after I doubt. It would actually be a good idea to have a deposit and some kind of period during which that deposit must be made, but I haven’t heard of Tesla doing that. Maybe they will do something similar though. I do believe that whatever they do that it will follow the reservation order.

 

[davelloydbrown]

That'd be nice if true. As a day one reservation holder living in Texas who's driven Teslas since 2015...that should almost get me a delivery event invitation!

Agreed- you should be one of the first ones to get a CT other than employees. Let us know how it goes.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Once details of the frunk size get out, Tesla will only be able to sell a couple of hundred cybertucks total.

Right

 

[MIGUEL GONZALEZ DEL REY]

That's great news for me then. I never use the frunk on my Model Y. I'll happily be one of the couple hundred

don't you pick up take out dinners? it is the best, do not get the smell (specially chinese food) inside your car.....

 

[Rivian Trade in?]

Yeah I waited because I had my Rivian reservation, and got in quite late. I believe I'm somewhere around 485,000 or so. That said, I do believe that perhaps as few as 10% will follow through with their orders.
That still leaves several hundred thousand ahead of me!
??

 

[greggertruck]

Right, we have no originally stated size. So it's weird that ppl are mad

Dude it’s worse. We have clearly BETTER trunk that originally shown, with it being a full opening face, and people are mad. They wanted something never advertised. I for one still think it’s super functional.

 

[Gurule92]

Dude it’s worse. We have clearly BETTER trunk that originally shown, with it being a full opening face, and people are mad. They wanted something never advertised. I for one still think it’s super functional.

100%

 

[Deleted member 8313]

The number of reservations is NOT overstated, not even a little bit. In fact, Tesla has not provided a public update on the number of reservations in a very long time so, obviously, the number of reservations is vastly understated. It's not Tesla's job to try to appraise us of how many reservations they think will not be converted to purchases.

One thing that's clear to me, is once the Cybertruck starts hitting the streets, it will be no different than any of the other Tesla models, brand new orders will out-number the reservations cancelled. This means the number of pre-orders is only a small fraction of all the Cybertrucks Tesla will sell and the waiting list will extend beyond the original reservations as new orders continue to come in. Most new vehicle buyers will not place reservations for a vehicle that is not available in a reasonable timeframe or for a vehicle still in a prototype stage of development.

It IS overstated. Lots of people ordered multiple times. As I did. Canceled my other order because no way tesla makes a RWD. Im around 300,000 in order. But I live 100 miles away from Austin. I'll guarantee that I'll get my truck before someone in Iceland that ordered on the first day.

 

[Daddystired]

Dream on. Some people are predisposed to believe only what they want to believe.

Other people are more grounded in reality and thus base it upon the known facts:

1) Tesla set up the reservation system under the premise that earlier reservations would have precedence over later ones.

2) Every other Tesla model had reservations and those with earlier reservations had priority over later reservations. To think Tesla would suddenly ignore when the reservation was placed is illogical in the extreme.

What is true is that the reservation number is not absolute. Tesla will not hold up on delivering to later reservation holders if the earlier holder wants a configuration that is not in production yet.

I think OP is more saying a lot
Of people will have to bail out of purchasing the truck. And a lot of people will get moved up in doing so. OP is right. But by how many reservations right, no one knows.

Don’t have cash to buy it completely out right no hassle . Someone moves up in front of you. Didn’t figure insurance and can’t afford it tacked onto the monthly auto payment. Someone moves up. Intrest rates puts on too much a month so you bail. Someone moves in front. Every bank just declines to give you loan. Someone else moves in front. Already bought a Rivian and dont want the cybertruck someone moves in front. Lightning. Someone moves in front. For some reason you don’t like the end result of the truck and don’t get it. Someone else moves in front. You ordered first but you’re in Canada. someone moves in front. ETC.
I could be wrong on what OP is thinking lol

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