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HaulingAss

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My friend, you ignore the consequences of my post to continue on with agenda.

Fact 1: Tesla pulled the clause
Fact 2: You don't know who put it there, or if it was someone misguided and pulled
Fact 3: there's no evidence they will add it back
Fact 4: It in no way diminishes the argument that the mathematics of the ordering process and the extended delay in deliveries over years, the clause would in any way meaningfully reduce the wait time and position of a legitimate buyer

Simply the math is not subject interpretation, as might be the clause or the consequences of them.

Do some modelling, and get back to me how many scalpers you think there were and what positions they could have in the line, and how that affects your position in line.

Remember though that you could NOT select the quantity of CT on your order, and would have to order one after the other in sequence, in which time at least 2-300 to 1000 other people could jump in front of you in the line.

Accordingly, the clause was too broad and undefined to be a valid pathway just to mitigate scalpers alone, in fact it was decidedly against the privileges of a legitimate buyer, and done nothing for scalping at all, who could just wait a year and still end up in the same beneficial market anyway. So why bother.
You are correct that I'm assuming Tesla has only removed the clause for non-Cybertruck Purchase/Sale agreements. This is an assumption of mine based upon the known fact that Tesla likes to keep their contracts as short and simple as practical. It made no sense for 95% of Tesla buyers to have to skip over that clause when Tesla can simply use a special Purchase and Sale Agreement for Cybertruck sales.

I think this is a valid analysis, I'm sorry you don't. I would suggest that your personal wants and desires are influencing your analysis. I'm just making the best conclusions I can, given what we know.

I also think your analysis underestimates the number of people that clause (if included) would dissuade from purchase. This will move people up the line much faster than most people are anticipating, based solely on the number of total reservations. I say this because I know a lot of people placed reservations without knowing if they actually needed a pickup truck or whether a new truck was a financially smart move, simply because they knew they could likely drive it around for a couple of months, show it to all their friends, and sell it for a profit to pay off the loan and have a few bucks left in their pocket.

Because it was widely expected the new Cybertruck would be in very short supply initially, as new Tesla models tend to be, and because the deposit was only $100, it was very easy for people to put in an order "just in case". This clause will cause a mass exodous of non-serious buyers who really can't afford a brand new pickup truck which would move genuine buyers to the front of line much faster. My estimation with the clause in place is that 50-75% of reservations will cancel.

Geniune buyers should be rejoicing loudly at the news that Tesla takes the problem of flipping seriously and that the clause remains in the Purchase and Sale Agreement used for Cybertruck purchases. I think you will find it will be there. The release of that clause in the universal Purchase and Sale Agreement was not a figment of someones imagination and it doesn't look to be a forgery. The fact that it was removed, means much less than the fact that it was there in the first place. That's my analysis and I'm sticking to it. Tesla wants to avoid the ramp of the Cybertruck from becoming anymore of a shitshow than it needs to be.

Time will prove one of us right.
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JBee

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lemme guess… ?
Hey Australia is a free country still (I think) so I can buy as many as I want! :p

(PS Besides everyone is a legitimate purchase, as they are all in family names, and for the USA and Australia, and I don't have any intention of selling any of them in the next 10 years.)
 
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cvalue13

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Even if Tesla includes the buyback provision, there is zero chance that I can drive up to a Tesla service Center with my Cybertruck and walk out with a check.

Here’s a thread about someone with a brand-new Model X so bad it should have been in the book of Job. Tesla agreed to buy it back under the Lemon Law, and from start to finish it only took… 10 months

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...elivery-experience-no-quality-control.285573/
Plus here, the offending provision gives Tesla 60 days to in the first place to decide whether to offer and come up with the offer amount.

Meanwhile, the provision gave zero info on the procedural bumpers, e.g.:

• while you’re waiting for Tesla’s decision/offer, can you drive it?

• if you can, are you racking up more -$0.25c/unreasonable wear and tear?

• if while you’re waiting for the decision/offer or the payment, and you cross your 1yr anniversary, can you rescind / sell at market?


Perhaps my favorite snaffu in the provision, though:

If you sell to a third party, Tesla takes the greater of $50K or ALL the funds received, so you come out to zero on the 3rd party sale.

But wait a second: hadn’t you paid down the truck? Including for months while waiting on Tesla?

So, where’d your equity go?

Say at that point you paid Tesla $20k in down payment and monthly payments, and you’ve paid the bank $4K in interest, then sold to a 3rd party for $80k, then Tesla takes $80k.

Tesla’s taken not only the $80K, but also your $20K in equity.

As “damages.”

That increase every monthly payment you make right up to month 12 - at which point, never-mind, go sell it at market price.

Ok, sure, Tesla.
 

CyberGus

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Plus here, the offending provision gives Tesla 60 days to in the first place to decide whether to offer and come up with the offer amount.

Meanwhile, the provision gave zero info on the procedural bumpers, e.g.:

• while you’re waiting for Tesla’s decision/offer, can you drive it?

• if you can, are you racking up more -$0.25c/unreasonable wear and tear?

• if while you’re waiting for the decision/offer or the payment, and you cross your 1yr anniversary, can you rescind / sell at market?


Perhaps my favorite snaffu in the provision, though:

If you sell to a third party, Tesla takes the greater of $50K or ALL the funds received, so you come out to zero on the 3rd party sale.

But wait a second: hadn’t you paid down the truck? Including for months while waiting on Tesla?

So, where’d your equity go?

Say at that point you paid Tesla $20k in down payment and deposit, you’ve paid the bank $4K in interest, sold for $80k, then Tesla takes $80k.

Tesla’s taken not only the $80K, but also your $20K in equity.

As “damages.”

Ok, sure, Tesla.
Right. I could see them demanding “the lesser of your excess over the value, or $50k” to take the profit out of it, but with their wording, you’d be better of leaving it on Rundburg with the door open and the keycard on the dash
 

JBee

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You are correct that I'm assuming Tesla has only removed the clause for non-Cybertruck Purchase/Sale agreements. This is an assumption of mine based upon the known fact that Tesla likes to keep their contracts as short and simple as practical. It made no sense for 95% of Tesla buyers to have to skip over that clause when Tesla can simply use a special Purchase and Sale Agreement for Cybertruck sales.

I think this is a valid analysis, I'm sorry you don't. I would suggest that your personal wants and desires are influencing your analysis. I'm just making the best conclusions I can, given what we know.

I also think your analysis underestimates the number of people that clause (if included) would dissuade from purchase. This will move people up the line much faster than most people are anticipating, based solely on the number of total reservations. I say this because I know a lot of people placed reservations without knowing if they actually needed a pickup truck or whether a new truck was a financially smart move, simply because they knew they could likely drive it around for a couple of months, show it to all their friends, and sell it for a profit to pay off the loan and have a few bucks left in their pocket.

Because it was widely expected the new Cybertruck would be in very short supply initially, as new Tesla models tend to be, and because the deposit was only $100, it was very easy for people to put in an order "just in case". This clause will cause a mass exodous of non-serious buyers who really can't afford a brand new pickup truck which would move genuine buyers to the front of line much faster. My estimation with the clause in place is that 50-75% of reservations will cancel.

Geniune buyers should be rejoicing loudly at the news that Tesla takes the problem of flipping seriously and that the clause remains in the Purchase and Sale Agreement used for Cybertruck purchases. I think you will find it will be there. The release of that clause in the universal Purchase and Sale Agreement was not a figment of someones imagination and it doesn't look to be a forgery. The fact that it was removed, means much less than the fact that it was there in the first place. That's my analysis and I'm sticking to it. Tesla wants to avoid the ramp of the Cybertruck from becoming anymore of a shitshow than it needs to be.

Time will prove one of us right.
I can concede that there might be buyers that thought they'd place an reservation for $100 "just in case", but that in no way means they can't or won't convert now. It's been 4years.

To think that these people who can't afford the CT and are scalpers at the same time, and they should be discarded or forced out with a clause is very poor policy on many levels, even as you say it gets you in front of the line.

Further if you think that 50-75% of CT orders will cancel you better flush your TSLA quick.....

Those a ridiculous assumptions for a TSLA bull.

And you still have not provided any numbers of what the extent of the scalper sh*tshow actually is, despite offering some BS % of the conversion rate.

If anything you might lose more "genuine" CT buyers from the addition of the stupid clause than you actually remove in scalpers...

The point is simple: ANY SALE Tesla makes benefits them, so promoting them to make LESS sales JUST to facilitate you improving your position in line, is just as stupid as the clause itself.
 


DumpsterFire

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It all boils down to freedom. I am sick of the "nanny state karens" that want to stick their nose into other peoples business. Like the kids in pre-school that had melt downs when the other kid got a bigger scoop of mashed potatoes at lunch which they really did not like but were just triggered anyway.
Nanny state Karens?

Pre-school kids getting mashed potatoes?

Dude, how old are you and what shitty pre-school did you go to?

Sweet Jesus, who hurt you? :p
 
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JBee

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Plus here, the offending provision gives Tesla 60 days to in the first place to decide whether to offer and come up with the offer amount.

Meanwhile, the provision gave zero info on the procedural bumpers, e.g.:

• while you’re waiting for Tesla’s decision/offer, can you drive it?

• if you can, are you racking up more -$0.25c/unreasonable wear and tear?

• if while you’re waiting for the decision/offer or the payment, and you cross your 1yr anniversary, can you rescind / sell at market?


Perhaps my favorite snaffu in the provision, though:

If you sell to a third party, Tesla takes the greater of $50K or ALL the funds received, so you come out to zero on the 3rd party sale.

But wait a second: hadn’t you paid down the truck? Including for months while waiting on Tesla?

So, where’d your equity go?

Say at that point you paid Tesla $20k in down payment and monthly payments, and you’ve paid the bank $4K in interest, then sold to a 3rd party for $80k, then Tesla takes $80k.

Tesla’s taken not only the $80K, but also your $20K in equity.

As “damages.”

That increase every monthly payment you make right up to month 12 - at which point, never-mind, go sell it at market price.

Ok, sure, Tesla.
I thought that too but forgot to mention it.

They can't take your equity as penalty.

From what I understand even a repo would go to a sale to a third party, and the price difference would either need to be paid by the owner if in deficit OR the owner gets paid the remaining difference if the sale was higher than that was owed.

In this case though, not only would you have to pay Tesla the full sale price, you would also be left with whatever loan amount was left on your lease/loan and would have to pay that to the lender as well.

That would put a whole bunch of people in ruin, let alone become a bigger sh*tshow than the scalpers could ever make.
 

HaulingAss

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Further if you think that 50-75% of CT orders will cancel you better flush your TSLA quick.....

Those a ridiculous assumptions for a TSLA bull.
I think it's an accurate analysis but that doesn't mean I'm not bullish on Tesla sales. New reservations will replace cancelled reservations leaving the Cybertruck perpetually over-subscribed for some time. It's impossible to say for how long because that depends upon whether the economy has some strong growth or continues to contract.

$100 dollars is simply not enough to dissuade peple from making multiple reservations "just in case" and from making initial reservations "just in case". When it's refundable, the true cost is very little while the potential benefits are huge, particularly if you know waiting lists will be long and you might be able to take delivery and sell it for more. It cost basically nothing to give it a go.

I think the true number of reservations is actually over 3 million by now, but Tesla has stopped making the approximate number public because they have the actual data and that likely gives them a pretty good idea that the conversion rate will not be that high (based on how many multiple reservations they see). My estimate of 50-75% reservations that don't convert to a purchase includes people who have died since they reserved. It also includes people who thought they were going to get rich flipping Cybertruck and automated the reservation process or simply entered them sequentially, one at a time. But it mostly consists of people who ordered one, two or three Cybertrucks and don't plan to convert all of them to actual purchases. Those were wild times and money was flowing freely, there were scores of new crypto millionaires, people were playing tech stock options like kids eat candy and people were flush with money.

Times are different now, initially I only estimated a 25% cancellation rate, but that is obviously no longer accurate. This lower rate of conversion is good news for those of us who have been waiting patiently and still want to take delivery ASAP. However, it doesn't mean the Cybertruck will not experience a huge flood of new buyers when they see the Cybertruck is not fantasy, but it's real, and the waitlist has finally shrunk to an acceptable wait time as production volume continues to ramp.

I'm very bullish on Tesla, even though I estimate a low conversion rate on the pool of Cybertruck reservations. If Tesla doesn't enforce the "no-reselling" rule, then the conversion rate will be closer to 75-90%, which of course will be very bad news for those of us who are sincere buyers and are chomping at the bit to get one for ourselves.
 

HaulingAss

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I thought that too but forgot to mention it.

They can't take your equity as penalty.

From what I understand even a repo would go to a sale to a third party, and the price difference would either need to be paid by the owner if in deficit OR the owner gets paid the remaining difference if the sale was higher than that was owed.

In this case though, not only would you have to pay Tesla the full sale price, you would also be left with whatever loan amount was left on your lease/loan and would have to pay that to the lender as well.

That would put a whole bunch of people in ruin, let alone become a bigger sh*tshow than the scalpers could ever make.
Oh, damn. This post shows just how much you don't understand. It's pure fantasy of the nightmare kind.

Got fear? Yes, you do. People will be wise to not pay attention to such nonsense.
 

HaulingAss

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Hey Australia is a free country still (I think) so I can buy as many as I want! :p
Only at Tesla's pleasure. They reserve the right to refuse to sell you the first one, if they are so inclined. In other words, you have no inalienable right to do business with Tesla, they do business with others at their own discretion. They are never under any obligation to accept your purchase order, just remember that.
 


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Oh, damn. This post shows just how much you don't understand. It's pure fantasy of the nightmare kind.

Got fear? Yes, you do. People will be wise to not pay attention to such nonsense.
You just need to learn to read and understand the clause....and then we can talk.
 

JBee

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I think it's an accurate analysis but that doesn't mean I'm not bullish on Tesla sales. New reservations will replace cancelled reservations leaving the Cybertruck perpetually over-subscribed for some time. It's impossible to say for how long because that depends upon whether the economy has some strong growth or continues to contract.

$100 dollars is simply not enough to dissuade peple from making multiple reservations "just in case" and from making initial reservations "just in case". When it's refundable, the true cost is very little while the potential benefits are huge, particularly if you know waiting lists will be long and you might be able to take delivery and sell it for more. It cost basically nothing to give it a go.

I think the true number of reservations is actually over 3 million by now, but Tesla has stopped making the approximate number public because they have the actual data and that likely gives them a pretty good idea that the conversion rate will not be that high (based on how many multiple reservations they see). My estimate of 50-75% reservations that don't convert to a purchase includes people who have died since they reserved. It also includes people who thought they were going to get rich flipping Cybertruck and automated the reservation process or simply entered them sequentially, one at a time. But it mostly consists of people who ordered one, two or three Cybertrucks and don't plan to convert all of them to actual purchases. Those were wild times and money was flowing freely, there were scores of new crypto millionaires, people were playing tech stock options like kids eat candy and people were flush with money.

Times are different now, initially I only estimated a 25% cancellation rate, but that is obviously no longer accurate. This lower rate of conversion is good news for those of us who have been waiting patiently and still want to take delivery ASAP. However, it doesn't mean the Cybertruck will not experience a huge flood of new buyers when they see the Cybertruck is not fantasy, but it's real, and the waitlist has finally shrunk to an acceptable wait time as production volume continues to ramp.

I'm very bullish on Tesla, even though I estimate a low conversion rate on the pool of Cybertruck reservations. If Tesla doesn't enforce the "no-reselling" rule, then the conversion rate will be closer to 75-90%, which of course will be very bad news for those of us who are sincere buyers and are chomping at the bit to get one for ourselves.
I'm not sure even you know what point you are trying to make.

There are so many contradictory statements you are making regarding numbers, just to avoid being proven wrong, that I don't think it warrants extra time to discuss.

If you can, please at a minimum stay on the topic of the point of my post, to which YOU replied too; and that was that there are no meaningful number of scalpers in the first year were the clause applies, so there's no benefit in having it in the first place. If so bring some numbers with sensitivities and consequences in full recognition of the ordering and ramp timelines and constraints.
 

HaulingAss

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I'm not sure even you know what point you are trying to make.

There are so many contradictory statements you are making regarding numbers, just to avoid being proven wrong, that I don't think it warrants extra time to discuss.

If you can, please at a minimum stay on the topic of the point of my post, to which YOU replied too; and that was that there are no meaningful number of scalpers in the first year were the clause applies, so there's no benefit in having it in the first place. If so bring some numbers with sensitivities and consequences in full recognition of the ordering and ramp timelines and constraints.
Your last two sentences are incoherent. I think I've heard all I need to from you.
 

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I like your view of the situation and think it's accurate right up until the last bit quoted above.

I guarantee that if Tesla had mandated the buyer had to be the registered owner (for any length of time) a few people would still be calling it a "nanny state" and crying louder than a Falcon 9 launch. The reason that is not a true perspective is because it ignores that this is not a government imposing restrictions on all citizens, it is two private parties entering into a Purchase/Sale agreement and no party is being coerced to enter into the terms. It's a "take it or leave it" situation, some people just happen to be unhappy with that choice, which makes no sense at all, because if Tesla didn't offer the Cybertruck, they wouldn't even have the option to make that choice.

In fact, people actually did whine louder than a Falcon 9 launch at the "no resellers" provision included at the time of the reservation. The latest language simply provides clarity as to how Tesla intends to enforce it.

Tesla made the Cybertruck happen, they can decide what to do with it. And I am one who appreciates the care they are demonstrating in keeping the market as orderly and affordable as possible for people who actually want to own one themselves.

Any genuine buyer who is put off by these straightforward terms doesn't understand the terms. I'm glad that if my plans suddenly change, Tesla might buy it off me with minimal depreciation.
None of us have the perfect answers to please everybody and some will undoubtedly be rubbed the wrong way. While I'm not a fan of relying on polls, the recent poll on this forum (suggests) that most agree with Tesla having a no resellers provision. I perceive it as Tesla wanting to protect the integrity of the ownership experience and support, which would be more difficult if there were a lot of frequent resales and flipping early in the Cybertruck ramp, where initial ownership impressions and support accessibility are extremely important.

- ÆCIII
 

cvalue13

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I thought that too but forgot to mention it.

They can't take your equity as penalty.
I mean, legally and contractually, they absolutely can (assuming there’s not an extra-contractual theory of law that says the four corners of the document can’t be upheld or a policy reason).

And that’s the point I was making, basically:

One of roughly two things must be true:

(1) Tesla intended these consequences (in which case, f*ck ‘em), or

(2) The provision was so ill-considered these consequences are just further evidence of the idiocy involved in putting this provision forward (in which case, f*ck ‘em)

And get’s back to my earlier parenthetical regarding extra-contractual reasons for a court to not uphold/enforce such a provision despite being otherwise “legal”:

At the end of the day, a buyer with adequate time and resources and the right set of facts would likely in court be able to have this provision gutted.

And the *only* reason that wouldn’t occur is because inequities between a buyer and Tesla - in terms of time and resources - would be so imbalanced that Tesla could likely just outmaneuver (eg drag out, make expensive) to a default “win”

Which gets us back to where we started
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