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Tinker71

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I’m convinced that’s not exactly true - again will let @JBee guide that discussion



Could they? By designing a some entirely different pack? Sure, maybe - but just adding“stacking” the pack design they’ve built isn’t the long and short of it




well, we’re in agreement there - insofar as I think it’s very possible that Tesla has meant what it has said over the past few years regarding a philosophical shift towards range/packs

but as for the manufacturing cost/efforts points, maybe we’re merely in violent agreement but describing that same reality two different ways

because I’ve been saying “they can’t just do a double stack” to mean, and because, it would require such deep re-engineering of the truck (and production line) that it’s commercially repugnant

setting aside the pack Engineering issues, the only envelope-level possibility is what you’ve described: make it a pot/belly under the truck that just droops down between the wheel wells, eating not just ground clearance, but likely also aero, etc.


the truth of all this, again, I think is pretty clearly evidenced in inference by both

(1) the offer of the extender, plus

(2) a preview of a 2025 single motor offering, but no preview of any future long range variant.

Tesla has no plans to offer that configuration native. And so, the engineered a truck (and line) that cannot be merely “altered” to achieve it - regardless of whether motivated by philosophy, commercially repugnant outcomes, or both.

I threw out the possibility of a tonneau delete option. Replace it with a fabric design. Then the battery could be expanded into the tonneau storage area which is significant and in the right spot.

I doubt it given the that the CT pack will be standardized ( perhaps missing 4 rows on the RWD)
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Tinker71

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sober take from a non-reservation holder and non-investor:

It is an absolute fail as a work truck. The size reduction and all the extra tech, some of which are the antithesis of a work truck, as well as a massive price increase from the initial projection all made this a terrible work truck that is supposed to maximize the 'work' aspect of the vehicle.

From another perspective, this is a super truck with all the latest and greatest tech you can conceivably cram into a truck at a lower price than the likes of Raptor R, RAM TRX and comparable to Rivian, which allegedly is losing money on their trucks still.

Ask yourself realistically, if we take an F-150 Lighting Pro ER, which many would agree here is a work truck that is not exactly profitable to build according to Ford, then add in the following features:
  • beefy air suspension
  • 4 wheel steering (4WS)
  • fully steer-by-wire (SBW)
  • 48V wiring harness (which is also what enabled SBW in the first place)
  • 800-400V battery
  • tough exterior
  • integrated motorized tonneau cover
would that still be anywhere close to 50k? Just the air suspension alone would have cost 10k or more.

The conclusion:
The good:
  • engineering masterpiece
  • very competitive with current market offerings
  • truly unique in the segment
  • halo vehicle (Cyberus*) with tech that will trickle down to cheaper models (SBW and 48V)
The bad:
  • late to market
  • smaller than the original and likely a lower weight class than the original, hence the reduction in payload and towing capacity
  • new tech = manufacturing challenges and a short-term lack of 3rd party add-ons due to the 48V system and unconventional truck design
  • some features are now either gone or only available as a separate item, like sail pillar storage and air pump
The ugly:
  • LMAO for people to even treat this as a work truck. Perhaps after 2 years of refinement and removing some of the costliest features like 4WS and air suspension, we'll get to 55-65k dual motor ~340mi and 70-80k for >400mi range
  • expensive truck is expensive, regardless of how amazing this truck is. It will scare off many potential buyers until prices come down. This however is mostly a downside for consumers and is unlikely to affect Tesla in the short term as they ramp up production
  • Whether they can come close to 200k annual production depends on their ability to create trim level(s) that appeal to enough potential buyers, whether it's fleet customers, overlanders, mall crawlers, etc. Big long-term challenge
*Cyberus just rolls off the tongue better than Cyber Beast and fits the decal. Thanks to whoever came up with the name in this forum. I don't ever believe the top model will be anything but a halo truck even with all the improvements that could materialize after they ramp up production, similar to the plaid models.
Work trucks have a huge range. It used to be the cheapest white 2wd. You were lucky to get AC and a stereo. Now every mid level exec gets a "work truck" with all the trinkets. People can get the same amount of "work" done in either. Trucks are a status thing now.

Good opinion pierce.
 

davelloydbrown

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Work trucks have a huge range. It used to be the cheapest white 2wd. You were lucky to get AC and a stereo. Now every mid level exec gets a "work truck" with all the trinkets. People can get the same amount of "work" done in either. Trucks are a status thing now.

Good opinion pierce.
Yeah I bought my last truck in 2009, at the bottom of the last recession when no one was buying trucks. GM offered me every incentive you could believe and I got it for 28 k CAD including taxes. I couldn't believe the price of the silverado as my truck before that was a 2500 sierra that cost me 22 k CAD in 1992.

I guess the era of cheap trucks is over, but what is going to happen when all the city people start to buy CT's and stop buying 80-100 k GM, fords and rams?
 

cvalue13

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I threw out the possibility of a tonneau delete option. Replace it with a fabric design. Then the battery could be expanded into the tonneau storage area which is significant and in the right spot.

I doubt it given the that the CT pack will be standardized ( perhaps missing 4 rows on the RWD)
It’s not a bad idea, In terms of ID’ing potential available space within the envelope of the truck.

But, if the Tesla-approved reviewer specs are to be believed, driving with the tonneau open (or in your case, absent) has a 10% range hit. That’d do considerable work against the range added by the pack.

Your suggestion of a fabric Replacement for the tonneau in this scenario, I suppose, would be a patch. But I’m not sure how a fabric tonneau would work in this truck.
 

mhaze

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I have been preaching that reservation holders need a plan B. ...
A plan B - the Bitcoin plan - is required.

2019 November 19 data

Bitcoin - $8,300
Dual Motor Cybertruck $59,000
Price in BTC - 7.10

2023 December 3 data
Bitcoin $39,500
Dual Motor Cybertruck $79,990
Price in BTC - 2.02

What a great deal!

350% cheaper than when announced!
(measured by a true reliable and stable currency)

Although the above calculations and conclusions are very simple and clear, I have ran into a problem. What has actual inflation been since CT announcement in November of 2019? It's tempting to consider the decline in the US Dollar's value relative to Bitcoin. By this measure the USD is 21% of what it was in 2019.

But why shouldn't the USD value be compared directly to the Cybertruck?

Inflation(CT) = (CT2019 Price)/(CT2023 Price) = Today a dollar has 61% of the value a dollar had in 2019, four years ago. This is in line with consumer experience in pricing important things like beer, Netflix, ammo and gasoline. Of course we know the US Gov cannot be trusted to accurately report its own inflation data, but now we have The Secret and True Method.

The Cybertruck is the exact same price each year, as it is the sole determinant of value, against which other things should be valued. Indeed, the day may come when a new US monetary system is based in CT fractional units, CTbits.

Hoping for early delivery in 2024.
 
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datechboss101

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I am not sure what Elon and Tesla was thinking about 340 miles for a dual + a range extender? The Model S Long Range does 400+ miles without the need of a range extender. Tesla quite literally blew the ball on this vehicle, especially with range. If we compared with ICE vehicles, the bricks known as SUVs and Minivans (less efficient vehicles to exist) can easily hit 400 miles for half the price. The Cybertruck already has better aerodynamics and is lighter than the competition, but this range is definitely disappointing.

Even if Tesla knocks down the price next year or two, it is overpriced just like the Model Y that happened earlier this year, and I am not talking about the Tri motor CyberBeast trim. But then I invested In Tesla stock as well, and from a shareholders perspective, the stock isn’t even doing well.

For this price, even the base single motor, its literally making another Lifestyle truck a better option: Honda Ridgeline. Its almost equal in terms of usefulness, other than price and towing capacity.

I do have Plans B through Z. Might as well get a Civic Type R or Integra Type S for MSRP if Tesla doesn’t make the Dual motor a great value (i.e.: Lower price, more range w/o extender). Also, toying with the idea of a ZDX from Acura as well.
 

MexiTruck

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Every truck off the line will be sold for the next two years I guarantee..
I don’t doubt that.

Tesla has been strong on matching production to orders. Unlike legacy makers who sell through dealerships, Tesla doesn’t get stuck with unsold inventory.

Tesla has said it can produce 125k CTs in the first year and 250,000 CTs annually after that. Maybe it will and maybe it will sell every one of those 875k CTs in the first four years of production at current prices. Maybe Tesla will curtail production if necessary to make sure it does not have unsold inventory.
 

davelloydbrown

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A plan B - the Bitcoin plan - is required.

2019 November 19 data

Bitcoin - $8,300
Dual Motor Cybertruck $59,000
Price in BTC - 7.10

2023 December 3 data
Bitcoin $39,500
Dual Motor Cybertruck $79,990
Price in BTC - 2.02

What a great deal!

350% cheaper than when announced!
(measured by a true reliable and stable currency)

Hoping for early delivery in 2024.
How about this,

November 19, 2019 Tesla stock = $17.46, Duel motor CT = $59,900 or 3,429 shares

December 2, 2023 Tesla stock = $ 238, Duel Motor CT = $79,900 or 335 shares,

a 10 fold or one order of magnitude reduction !

I plan on selling 1/4 of my tesla shares to buy a duel, but I need the stock to recover to at least $350, which is not impossible.
 

mhaze

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How about this,

November 19, 2019 Tesla stock = $17.46, Duel motor CT = $59,900 or 3,429 shares

December 2, 2023 Tesla stock = $ 238, Duel Motor CT = $79,900 or 335 shares,

a 10 fold or one order of magnitude reduction !

I plan on selling 1/4 of my tesla shares to buy a duel, but I need the stock to recover to at least $350, which is not impossible.
This really actually hurts. I though I was smart to pre order the CT, but at that moment I should have been buying the stock.... like not investing in Gold but in Levi Strauss during the CA gold rush...
 

Berno

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Pickup trucks have definitely evolved into a luxury vehicle, but there is obviously a market for them. When your need for a vehicle is to haul around the family and pick up pallet sized packages of toilet paper from Costco, then why not have something nice. On the other hand, a lot of people need a truck designed for work. Personally, I would be embarrassed driving up to the job site in such an expensive vehicle. Especially one that isn’t really designed for loading tools and materials. Tesla has been selling two sets of cars. The S and X are luxury vehicles while the 3 and Y are more affordable. Tesla sells about 1 model S and X for every 25 of the models 3 and Y. Which group will CT fall into. Elon is a great engineer and he’s even better at getting things done, but he’s become such an incredible a..hole. He’s turning into his father and that’s not a good thing. Unfortunately, I have really soured on Tesla because of Elon, especially when other options are becoming available.
 


mhaze

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.... I plan on selling 1/4 of my tesla shares to buy a duel, but I need the stock to recover to at least $350, which is not impossible.
I expect Tesla stock to have a nice upwards bump as people start actually seeing it out on the road, because that's marketing for Tesla stock. Teslas now on the road are now largely invisible, and blend in.
 

davelloydbrown

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I expect Tesla stock to have a nice upwards bump as people start actually seeing it out on the road, because that's marketing for Tesla stock. Teslas now on the road are now largely invisible, and blend in.
hope your right.! It wouldn't hurt if they made their 1.8 mil for 2023 in Q4.
 

MEDICALJMP

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A plan B - the Bitcoin plan - is required.

2019 November 19 data

Bitcoin - $8,300
Dual Motor Cybertruck $59,000
Price in BTC - 7.10

2023 December 3 data
Bitcoin $39,500
Dual Motor Cybertruck $79,990
Price in BTC - 2.02

What a great deal!

350% cheaper than when announced!
(measured by a true reliable and stable currency)

Although the above calculations and conclusions are very simple and clear, I have ran into a problem. What has actual inflation been since CT announcement in November of 2019? It's tempting to consider the decline in the US Dollar's value relative to Bitcoin. By this measure the USD is 21% of what it was in 2019.

But why shouldn't the USD value be compared directly to the Cybertruck?

Inflation(CT) = (CT2019 Price)/(CT2023 Price) = Today a dollar has 61% of the value a dollar had in 2019, four years ago. This is in line with consumer experience in pricing important things like beer, Netflix, ammo and gasoline. Of course we know the US Gov cannot be trusted to accurately report its own inflation data, but now we have The Secret and True Method.

The Cybertruck is the exact same price each year, as it is the sole determinant of value, against which other things should be valued. Indeed, the day may come when a new US monetary system is based in CT fractional units, CTbits.

Hoping for early delivery in 2024.

If there were a middle finger emoji response button, you'd have gotten it for that type of reasoning.
 

mhaze

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If there were a middle finger emoji response button, you'd have gotten it for that type of reasoning.
If you drive or intend to drive a CT, get used to a lot of middle fingers.
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