Non-Founders Series Cybertruck timeline

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

About 200 service centers, 5 technicians/sales staff min, 1000 in the first batch, another 1000 to wrap up the training, wind up logistics and correct forecast. Then build more to test out constraints in suppliers and production bottlenecks while funding the ramp-up. Non-FS production will go in parallel. Doesn't have to be a clear phase switch.

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[TexasRaider]

When you order a FS Cyberbeast, that’s the estimated date.

Not mine. I have been told mine will be delivered within the next 60 days. With a higher probability of within the next 30 days.

 

[cofree]

I recall our Signature Model X was delivered late (at the factory) ... months after the first non-signatures were already delivered. So historically things can definitely get out of order.

 

[whatnot]

Not mine. I have been told mine will be delivered within the next 60 days. With a higher probability of within the next 30 days.

New orders are showing mid-late 2024

 

[CYBEAST]

If i had ordered a Foundation beast, i would cancel. Paying a premium is i would think mostly for getting it earlier. If that's not in play, i think there are very few who give a dam about powershare or a home charger.

Remember, foundation and regular trucks are the same save a couple of itchings. All regular CTs can be optioned up too

I ordered a Foundation Beast. Getting FSD 12k & bi directional charging hardware 3k plus 4k install credit puts it a 117k before the other options. Also white interior, foundation badging, premium connectivity 1k, premium wheels 5k, the light bar 3k and accessories $500. Seems like a no brainer to me if you want these options as I do. You would spend 126,500k after the fact anyways. . And getting in on an early order is cool.

 

[cvalue13]

Even if the 1st round of FS Cyberbeasts get delivered, there’s still the question of the 2nd round FS Cyberbeasts. I would be pissed if i payed a premium and regular AWDs get delivered before my FS Cyberbeast.

MANY of the AWDs will be getting delivered before a FEW of the Cyberbeasts are delivered

Knowing this beforehand would be a benefit to watching this forum closely

 

[Dazajj]

MANY of the AWDs will be getting delivered before a FEW of the Cyberbeasts are delivered

Knowing this beforehand would be a benefit to watching this forum closely

So are you thinking that non Founders Series AWD will be delivered prior to some of the Founders Series Cyberbeasts?

 

[cvalue13]

Anyone getting the feeling that non founders series CT will not be delivered until 2025? Seeing how the Cyberbeast FS aren’t being delivered until 2nd half of 2024… no way they deliver regular AWDs before FS Cyberbeast, right?

So are you thinking that non Founders Series AWD will be delivered prior to some of the Founders Series Cyberbeasts?

It's an interesting question, and I think based on what we know to date has a two-part answer.

One of two things will be true:

(1) Tesla continues selling AWD Foundation series well past say Q1 of 2024, such as to ensure that no normal retail CT deliveries occur in 2025 (this seems unlikely to me), in which case, as you say, few to ~no retail CTs will be delivered in 2024​

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OR​

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2) Tesla stops selling AWD Foundation series around say Q1 of 2024 (this seems more likely to me), which means that both:​

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(a) Tesla will have completed delivery of all AWD Foundation units somewhere like end of Q2, and then begin delivering AWD retail units the back half of 2024, but​

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(b) w/r/t the Cyberbeast, Tesla could still be catching up with Foundation builds through most/all of 2024, before being able to turn to the first retail Cyberbeast builds/deliveries, and​

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(c) which means, the first people buying retail AWD CTs (weeks or months from now) will be seeing deliveries before people who bought the last Foundation Cyberbeasts (now or over the next few weeks)​

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​

Again, how exactly this plays out depends heavily on the general ramp of CT production, but also the length of the Cyberbeast driveline parts constraints.

But for Cyberbeast bottleneck prognostication, it's not a great sign that Tesla is, before 2024 even starts, already feeling compelled to signal that the last of the Foundation Cyberbeasts being ordered last week may not be getting delivered until mid- to late-2024. If they stopped selling Foundation Cyberbeasts today, that's how long they expect Foundation Cyberbeast deliveries to take.

If they keep selling Foundation Cyberbeasts for a few more weeks (much less months), we could see no normal retail Cyberbeast deliveries for quite a long while.

 

[Dazajj]

It's an interesting question, and I think based on what we know to date has a two-part answer.

One of two things will be true:

(1) Tesla continues selling AWD Foundation series well past say Q1 of 2024, such as to ensure that no normal retail CT deliveries occur in 2025 (this seems unlikely to me), in which case, as you say, few to ~no retail CTs will be delivered in 2024​

​

OR​

​

2) Tesla stops selling AWD Foundation series around say Q1 of 2024 (this seems more likely to me), which means that both:​

​

(a) Tesla will have completed delivery of all AWD Foundation units somewhere like end of Q2, and then begin delivering AWD retail units the back half of 2024, but​

​

(b) w/r/t the Cyberbeast, Tesla could still be catching up with Foundation builds through most/all of 2024, before being able to turn to the first retail Cyberbeast builds/deliveries, and​

​

(c) which means, the first people buying retail AWD CTs (weeks or months from now) will be seeing deliveries before people who bought the last Foundation Cyberbeasts (now or over the next few weeks)​

​

​

Again, how exactly this plays out depends heavily on the general ramp of CT production, but also the length of the Cyberbeast driveline parts constraints.

But for Cyberbeast bottleneck prognostication, it's not a great sign that Tesla is, before 2024 even starts, already feeling compelled to signal that the last of the Foundation Cyberbeasts being ordered last week may not be getting delivered until mid- to late-2024. If they stopped selling Foundation Cyberbeasts today, that's how long they expect Foundation Cyberbeast deliveries to take.

If they keep selling Foundation Cyberbeasts for a few more weeks (much less months), we could see no normal retail Cyberbeast deliveries for quite a long while.

Thanks for the thoughtful answer!! Yeah it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out… it does seem that ramp up is going to be pretty slow though, regardless of which CT gets built first.

 

[cvalue13]

Thanks for the thoughtful answer!! Yeah it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out… it does seem that ramp up is going to be pretty slow though, regardless of which CT gets built first.

It actually causes me to wonder, and want to poll, whether the "no resale" provision is showing up in BOTH Foundation AWD and Cyberbeast purchase agreements

I have a vague sense/memory that it is, but wasn't really clocking that detail over the past few weeks

 

[Dazajj]

It actually causes me to wonder, and want to poll, whether the "no resale" provision is showing up in BOTH Foundation AWD and Cyberbeast purchase agreements

I have a vague sense/memory that it is, but wasn't really clocking that detail over the past few weeks

Definitely showed up on my FS AWD order… I would think it’s also part of the Cyberbeast agreement

 

[cvalue13]

Definitely showed up on my FS AWD order… I would think it’s also part of the Cyberbeast agreement

Ok great - that was a fast and sufficient "poll"


What remains for me, then, is to see if the no-resale provision is Founders edition specific (which I can better understand and appreciation from Tesla's view - especially given the developing landscape of the ramp and esp Cyberbeast production).

When the first retail units are made available for configuration, it will be very interesting to see if the no resale provision is ALSO there.



Personally, as much as I dislike the no resale provision (at least with respect to normal retail sales), I recognize that it's utility/importance to Tesla (not consumers!) increases with each decrease in production ramp expectation within Tesla.

That is, if Tesla expects to deliver eg 100K CTs in 2024 the no resale provision is far less justifiable (for either Tesla corporate, or consumers) than if Tesla expects to deliver e.g. 40K CTs in 2024.

Only because, in my view, the secondary market premiums that would be demanded would become a PR nightmare for Tesla corporate, in terms of drawing attention to and underlying the slow ramp. If Tesla builds 40K trucks in 2024, AND dozens of those trucks are fetching 2X premiums on the secondary market, it is a BAD look for corporate.

Whereas if Tesla builds 100K trucks in 2024, and hundreds of those trucks are fetching only like $20K premiums on the secondary market, Tesla corporate couldn't care less - in fact, that's if anything good for PR.

(Bias disclaimer: representing companies like these for a living, they don't weigh customer concerns/effects nearly as much as people would like to think... see, e.g., the current confusion around orders, RNs, etc.)

 

[Dmcgee]

Not mine. I have been told mine will be delivered within the next 60 days. With a higher probability of within the next 30 days.

Please keep us in the loop as the process progresses for you... voyeurism is keeping me invested at the moment.

 

[Dazajj]

Ok great - that was a fast and sufficient "poll"


What remains for me, then, is to see if the no-resale provision is Founders edition specific (which I can better understand and appreciation from Tesla's view - especially given the developing landscape of the ramp and esp Cyberbeast production).

When the first retail units are made available for configuration, it will be very interesting to see if the no resale provision is ALSO there.



Personally, as much as I dislike the no resale provision (at least with respect to normal retail sales), I recognize that it's utility/importance to Tesla (not consumers!) increases with each decrease in production ramp expectation within Tesla.

That is, if Tesla expects to deliver eg 100K CTs in 2024 the no resale provision is far less justifiable (for either Tesla corporate, or consumers) than if Tesla expects to deliver e.g. 40K CTs in 2024.

Only because, in my view, the secondary market premiums that would be demanded would become a PR nightmare for Tesla corporate, in terms of drawing attention to and underlying the slow ramp. If Tesla builds 40K trucks in 2024, AND dozens of those trucks are fetching 2X premiums on the secondary market, it is a BAD look for corporate.

Whereas if Tesla builds 100K trucks in 2024, and hundreds of those trucks are fetching only like $20K premiums on the secondary market, Tesla corporate couldn't care less - in fact, that's if anything good for PR.

(Bias disclaimer: representing companies like these for a living, they don't weigh customer concerns/effects nearly as much as people would like to think... see, e.g., the current confusion around orders, RNs, etc.)

I don’t know man, even 40K CT deliveries in 2024 is looking unlikely right now… that said, i have no evidence whatsoever for this assessment : )
But that’s coming from someone who was able to snag a FS, if i hadn’t, I would be like, “Tesla is delivering 100K easy!!” Haha.
only time will tell i guess

 

[cvalue13]

I don’t know man, even 40K CT deliveries in 2024 is looking unlikely right now… that said, i have no evidence whatsoever for this assessment : )
But that’s coming from someone who was able to snag a FS, if i hadn’t, I would be like, “Tesla is delivering 100K easy!!” Haha.
only time will tell i guess

I have what I feel is a very conservative view of Tesla’s forward-looking production ramp.

And even from that conservative view, I see no reason to have confidence that Tesla would produce fewer than 40K units by YE 2024.

• The production output of Cybertrucks we are presently seeing are in effect the absolute earliest stages of a complex and sensitive ramp.
• The reality, is that Tesla has been assembling trucks for sale for essentially three weeks, and not yet with any clear intent for full-throated ramp (despite marketing optics).
  
  
• One might fairly even say that Tesla is still currently in a pre-ramp phase, and has not yet begun actual - technical - production.

To the extent any of the above seems surprising or controversial, it is in no small part fueled (ironically) by the types of xwitter influenzas who have for months been way out over their skis (and Tesla’s skis) regarding where Tesla’s assembly and production-readiness is.

In other words, to listen to those fanbois, onlookers might reasonably conclude something like “Tesla’s been in production for months, and *this* is all we’re seeing!?”

The reality is, Tesla has been weeks or months behind those claims by outsiders.

The good news being, the result is that nothing we’ve seen the past few weeks (or the next several weeks) should be materially indicative of the ramp trajectory.

Again, not at all to suggest that a conservative view would suggest eg ‘we might still see 100K trucks in 2024.’

Instead only to say that even a conservative view would be that we don’t yet have sufficient info to reasonably doubt Tesla won’t achieve 40K or more units in 2024. Not that it might not turn out that way, but that we just don’t know much either way at present.

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