Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[Coolbreeze704]

Can you update the list without being a member?

No. As you see there are 2000 guest right now. These guests most likely have been checking in over the years and even more now.

Guest gets invite today/tomorrow or next month and gets excited and now joins after years of visiting so this new member can place his invite in spreadsheet, and later his/her order.

So many like yourself have joined since release event because now that the sh1t is hitting then fan they want to be in the middle of all the news and excitement is going on and you can not find this level of content that is new and relevant on CT anywhere else.

Sponsored

 

[cvalue13]

Can you update the list without being a member?

did you?

trust me, at this point I wish certain fewer people found this forum after hearing deliveries started, invites were going out, receiving an invite, etc.



meanwhile, having been active on this site for over a year I can count on one hand the recognizable member names on that order list

To only briefly prove that up, I just went to the order submission list, and thumb-scrolled to 10 random entries

every single one fell into the bucket of (a) joined since delivery event, (b) joined just before delivery event, or (c) joined long ago but long inactive.

One of you doubters can feel free to get out of your damn armchairs, put in some legwork, and build a script to survey the order list members and get a more statistically relevant sample of this theme.

state your piece and move on, or instead actually have some intellectual curiosity and honesty that converts into effort past your (frankly) dense armchair quips and uninformed conjectures

 

[Coltpete]

I was going to pipe in on this and totally agree. I think many would be surprised how many CT res holders have found this site during their 4 year wait. Why wouldn't they?

The pure joy of placing an order after this long wait would lead you back here to share in your excitement.

I will feel like it is north of 70% of orders placed are entered here in our tracker. If I was bold enough to say what I really feel and have thought through, I would say it is more like 90%. How can you place an order for this outlandish vehicle 4 years ago and not want to get in contact with others, get updates or just shoot the sht.

Just my opinion.

That is exactly how I found this forum. I have to imagine a very large majority of early reservation holders felt exactly the same way I did. Not to mention this is definitely a younger demographic overall that is familiar with this kind of forum.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

That is exactly how I found this forum. I have to imagine a very large majority of early reservation holders felt exactly the same way I did. Not to mention this is definitely a younger demographic overall that is familiar with this kind of forum.

Great validation. Thanks.

As @cvalue13 pointed out with his quick search of the order submissions most orders are placed by new members to the site and like yourself have either visited over these 4 years or joined and were silent members that have now jumped in for these exciting moments we get to be part of.

Unfortunately it has also brought in new members that want to bring in some of the confrontational interactions that are the norm in the world of the internet.

Has chased off some really delightful and brilliant contributors recently because of the change in the forum environment but we are also gaining some really incredible new members at the same time.

 

[cvalue13]

That is exactly how I found this forum. I have to imagine a very large majority of early reservation holders felt exactly the same way I did. Not to mention this is definitely a younger demographic overall that is familiar with this kind of forum.

and not to underplay the relevant context here:

even people on this forum have no clue what the f*ck Tesla is doing presently

So you hear delivery event is about to happen, or that invites are going out, or you get an invite - then you survey the Tesla website or emails, and the main conclusion is: “what does any of this mean? When might I get an invite? When might this order get delivered? When will I have to pay? Why is it $20K more? Can I wait to get a non-FS?”

That list could go on and on.

So you take to google, and the third hit presented:

Or maybe you already follow the big cybertruck influenzas on xwitter:

Or you’re previously active or inactive on TMC, and go over there for info then find folks pointing here:

all the while, however they get here, they see this:

All and only to say, it’s FAR from true that the submitted orders list here is populated all or primarily by historical and active CTOC membership

And so while I wouldn’t bet my favorite pillow that the order list capture is as high as 70%, I at the same time if it turned out to be true it wouldn’t exactly rock my world

I would be more shocked to find out it’s less than 30%

 

[agordon117]

and not to underplay the relevant context here:

even people on this forum have no clue what the f*ck Tesla is doing presently

So you hear delivery event is about to happen, or that invites are going out, or you get an invite - then you survey the Tesla website or emails, and the main conclusion is: “what does any of this mean? When might I get an invite? When might this order get delivered? When will I have to pay? Why is it $20K more? Can I wait to get a non-FS?”

That list could go on and on.

So you take to google, and the third hit presented:

Or maybe you already follow the big cybertruck influenzas on xwitter:

Or you’re previously active or inactive on TMC, and go over there for info then find folks pointing here:

all the while, however they get here, they see this:

All and only to say, it’s FAR from true that the submitted orders list here is populated all or primarily by historical and active CTOC membership

And so while I wouldn’t bet my favorite pillow that the order list capture is as high as 70%, I at the same time if it turned out to be true it wouldn’t exactly rock my world

I would be more shocked to find out it’s less than 30%

30-70% is much more sensical than 95% though, which is what I was taking issue with earlier.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

That is hilarious! Who in the world knows or cares about Teslarati, Sawyer Merritt, Tesla Motor Club or knows how to use a Google search no less.

I bet all those silly's that placed orders on day 1 and 2 have been playing Angry Birds and watching cool movies like Barbie over the last 4 years waiting on an email or call from Tesla

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Not exactly. Your point was no one knows this forum. False statement.

" There's just no way. Hardly anyone on earth even knows what a forum is."

You joined like 2 weeks ago. Honestly calm down and join the community to support and share and a good laugh everyday.

 

[Woodrick]

No. As you see there are 2000 guest right now. These guests most likely have been checking in over the years and even more now.

Guest gets invite today/tomorrow or next month and gets excited and now joins after years of visiting so this new member can place his invite in spreadsheet, and later his/her order.

So many like yourself have joined since release event because now that the sh1t is hitting then fan they want to be in the middle of all the news and excitement is going on and you can not find this level of content that is new and relevant on CT anywhere else.

My statement about the size of the forum is in response to

" I will feel like it is north of 70% of orders placed are entered here in our tracker. If I was bold enough to say what I really feel and have thought through, I would say it is more like 90%. How can you place an order for this outlandish vehicle 4 years ago and not want to get in contact with others, get updates or just shoot the sht. "

All I was asking is that do you believe that there is "north of 70% of orders in this tracker" when only 22000 people are able to add themselves to the tracker?

If you assume that there are only 500,000 real reservations out there, then this forum would represent less than 5% of the Cybertruck reservation population.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

My statement about the size of the forum is in response to



All I was asking is that do you believe that there is "north of 70% of orders in this tracker" when only 22000 people are able to add themselves to the tracker?

If you assume that there are only 500,000 real reservations out there, then this forum would represent less than 5% of the Cybertruck reservation population.

I am not a math guy - 21k members is less or more then 1000 registered orders?

Also as far as I have been told the forum is not closed to new members and when a non member who has been visiting for 4 years gets a invite they can join to post it?

 

[Guylouis]

let’s get back on topic….

Any beasts today

 

[Woodrick]

I am not a math guy - 21k members is less or more then 1000 registered orders?

Also as far as I have been told the forum is not closed to new members and when a non member who has been visiting for 4 years gets a invite they can join to post it?

My point is that the orders listed on the site were entered by members of the site. So if there are 1,000 orders in the list, that means that there are 1,000 orders per 22,000 people.

But there are probably at least 500,000 reservations (many would suggest 2M+) and that may indicate that there are more like 25,000 orders.


As with many products, while it feels as if Internet Forums represent the population of users, reality is that it is often well less than 10%. And from the numbers posted, this forum seems to represent less than 5% of the Cybertruck population.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

My point is that the orders listed on the site were entered by members of the site. So if there are 1,000 orders in the list, that means that there are 1,000 orders per 22,000 people.

But there are probably at least 500,000 reservations (many would suggest 2M+) and that may indicate that there are more like 25,000 orders.


As with many products, while it feels as if Internet Forums represent the population of users, reality is that it is often well less than 10%. And from the numbers posted, this forum seems to represent less than 5% of the Cybertruck population.

Okay.

 

[Gracilis]

My point is that the orders listed on the site were entered by members of the site. So if there are 1,000 orders in the list, that means that there are 1,000 orders per 22,000 people.

But there are probably at least 500,000 reservations (many would suggest 2M+) and that may indicate that there are more like 25,000 orders.


As with many products, while it feels as if Internet Forums represent the population of users, reality is that it is often well less than 10%. And from the numbers posted, this forum seems to represent less than 5% of the Cybertruck population.

Realistically I don't think it's that simple. My assumption would be that there are a higher ratio of early reservation holders on this site than delayed holders.

People who would watch the actual reveal as well as keep refreshing the order page until the link goes up are the same type of people who would google search for VIN lists and order stats.


So the earlier in the delivery cycle we are, the closer the data here will match. Then, as we hit 20,000+ deliveries we'll see the accuracy taper off.


End of the day though, speculation is all we have.

 

[Woodrick]

Realistically I don't think it's that simple. My assumption would be that there are a higher ratio of early reservation holders on this site than delayed holders.

People who would watch the actual reveal as well as keep refreshing the order page until the link goes up are the same type of people who would google search for VIN lists and order stats.


So the earlier in the delivery cycle we are, the closer the data here will match. Then, as we hit 20,000+ deliveries we'll see the accuracy taper off.


End of the day though, speculation is all we have.

I don't disagree that there may be a higher distribution of early reservations on the forum then the general population. But if it is 50% higher, it's still a low number. I think it becomes a little obvious from the number of new vehicles being delivered vs the ones listed on this site. Lots more delivered than listed.

I think that the number of people who watched the reveal and who created a reservation far outnumber the number of members of this forum by far.

I'm not saying that any of the lists are incorrect or that their proportions don't reflect reality. All I'm saying is that drawing conclusions from a relatively small and focused user group should always be made carefully.

For example, assuming that a 1,000 person order list means 1,000 Foundation Cybertrucks is quite a stretch. With a 1,000 person list, it may be closer to assume 30,000-50,000 Foundation Cybertrucks will be made.

Sponsored