Cybertruck is almost sold out for 2024. Reservation conversion rate very encouraging (per Q4 2023 earnings call)

[ArizonaTea]

If they sent 1 million FS invitation E-mail tomorrow, they will also sell out for 2025 and 2026 LOL.

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[jookyone]

I'm still under the belief system that they will go through the list once and offer foundation series before they go through the list with regular orders.

I doubt it, but if the bulk of members on this forum were only early adopters that might hold true. But numbers don't lie and here's the invited/ordered count to date

This gives Tesla more money to pay off their costs and it improves the product for regular people and it is great for TSLA investors.

Agree with you here and elaborating on "improved the product." Now that we are tipped to the notion that FS series are likely the only models produced in 2024 then they are almost assuredly doing this to collect data for FSD on the CT/4WS/Drive by wire. They have no other way to collect enough data than to "force" all Cybertrucks on the road to have FSD by including it in the FS price.

 

[CyberT1]

Heard that as well. News that if you have not ordered a foundation series - you may need to wait until 2025.

Additionally the delivery lead time is inaccurate based on current production volume. Jan - March delivery if you order today? No way if the Investor conference call is to be believed.

I see no evidence of any real production. Also, I have been waiting for a Vin number for a month.

 

[Woodrick]

notice any particular number that stayed the same, that jumped out at you?

??

Sure, things were repeated, is that what you mean? Still doesn't change my projections.

 

[Mini2nut]

“Sold out“ in Tesla speak could mean:

All FS series truck buyers + those who passed on FS trucks but are in the production que for “normal” Cybertruck’s. That number could equal total production for 2024.

Tesla did state that 2025 would be the first year for volume production to kick in.

 

[Woodrick]

I see no evidence of any real production. Also, I have been waiting for a Vin number for a month.

And you can probably expect to wait for another month. They haven't left CA or TX yet.

 

[CyberT1]

And you can probably expect to wait for another month. They haven't left CA or TX yet.

Considering how few they seem to be producing it might even be longer. Someone sees two Cybertrucks and make a big deal out of it. The same people repost on X, Looks like smoke and mirrors to me.

 

[Broski]

I can only now reflect with clarity, and all the prior costing debates / arguments were being made that Tesla would sell it out of the gate at a reasonable price because Tesla‘s mission is to transition the public to EVs.

Update, I guess there’s an exception for the first how many thousands and thousands of units now being sold for who knows how long that two times or more of the original promised price.

I don’t blame Tesla they need to make a profit
Reminds me of some people that have pet grizzly bear cubs and then surprise The bear eats its owner-//I guess no one saw that coming

 

[Woodrick]

Considering how few they seem to be producing it might even be longer. Someone sees two Cybertrucks and make a big deal out of it. The same people repost on X, Looks like smoke and mirrors to me.

If he's anxious now and from NJ, I didn't want to completely burst his bubble.

I'm Dec 27 order.
I'm expecting a March 31 delivery, probably will be May, hoping for February.

 

[CyberT1]

If he's anxious now and from NJ, I didn't want to completely burst his bubble.

I'm Dec 27 order.
I'm expecting a March 31 delivery, probably will be May, hoping for February.

I am from NJ and really don't expect to get vin until late March or early Apr. I place my reserve on 11/21/19 place my Order on 12/26/23 and now I wait like everyone else.

 

[Gurule92]

This is why I ordered the Foundation version who knows when a regular version will be available. And I’m not getting any younger lol

If I was big ballin I would too lol

 

[Wraven]

Are people with 11276XXXX reservations that were straight up skipped allowed to be pissed yet?

There has never been a Tesla new product launch that moved exclusively in a serial order based on sequential numbers. This is normal, it sucks, but it’s a very established pattern by Tesla.

 

[sylvius]

We still don't know how many FS invitations were sent out. Clearly they are sending them out to some of the later (but still very early) RNs but at the same time clearly they skipped some earlier RNs. No way of knowing or even confidently approximating what percent of the early RNs have gotten an invite. Are all the known invites so far still from the first 24 hours that reservations were open? Does anyone from, say, a December 2019 reservation have an invite yet? If the answer to those two questions no and yes, respectively, then maybe the conversion rate is actually quite high.

Given how many day one reservation holders haven't gotten an invitation (assuming there's no stupid reason like a bad email address or overambitious spam filter) I think it's a little early to conjecture that they are going to send invites to all 2 million reservation holders this year and keep selling FS indefinitely.

Based on what we have seen for orders it looks to me like they have some plan to get some number of trucks to every corner of the US and that's why some people are being passed over in line. If that's the case, we will need to wait to see what happens after that initial dissemination. I think it's not hard to imagine they can find enough people that really want this truck to sell 10-20k (maybe double that) this year at essentially any terms. The big question is what happens after that. Does demand stay high to where they can sell steady state 200k+ per year once ramped up or does it become a novelty?

 

[mark555055c]

Considering how few they seem to be producing it might even be longer. Someone sees two Cybertrucks and make a big deal out of it. The same people repost on X, Looks like smoke and mirrors to me.

Estimates right now are 50-100 per day based on drone footage. I keep my expectations low at 50 per day. Considering the delivery event was 11/30, and since then we've had the Christmas and New Years down time, plus a shutdown for a cold snap in the Southern US. I'd say things are looking fine, no smoke, no mirrors.

The vehicles need to reach delivery centers obviously. They get transported to the railyard, loaded on to freight trains, transported cross country at 40 mph, unloaded, and then picked up by vehicle transports to take to Tesla delivery centers. This process takes roughly 2-3 weeks and literally just started a couple weeks ago.

In the next 2-3 weeks, i believe we'll see deliveries get rolling, and then a steady flow thereafter.

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