Cybertruck is almost sold out for 2024. Reservation conversion rate very encouraging (per Q4 2023 earnings call)

[CloudNull]

Hot damn I’m glad I didn’t pass up on the FS. Feels bad for the others waiting for the normal skus

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[Spacenoddle]

1. If the conversion is higher than 10%, they would give us some ball park number. I think its somewhere 1-2% of 2mil initial reservation. but its still 20K-40K orders.
( 5 my friends who reserved CT did not even consider ordering FS, they laughed at new price and cancelled) this is why they are desperately sending a invite to many (now its 11285XX or higher)
2. Given the current VIN creation pace, yes, Tesla might be able to fulfill most of 20-30K orders in 2024, so he was not telling a lie

Elon was talking about $100K FS only, there is non-FS CT in his head.
I do not think Tesla can build more than 40K units in 2024. If they could build 100K or 125K, its $10B or $12B revenue!!, they should have been far more bullish during the conference, but did not see any excitement. so my conclusion is 30K unit all FS and $3B in CT revenue in 2024 at best case

It is impossible to go through 2 m reservation already. 11285xxx reservation is still under 100000 and in 24 hour window from the reveal. I agree they can only make 40000-50000 to the most, the conversation rate is about 50%, it is pretty in line with our observation.

 

[PilotPete]

Wow!…Certainly glad I cashed out 600 TSLA shares at 252 to pay for FS AWD. Still invested, but this downturn pretty tough to take.

I’m rounding up uninvested and underinvested dollars to buy right now.

1. If the conversion is higher than 10%, they would give us some ball park number. I think its somewhere 1-2% of 2mil initial reservation.

Based on what evidence?

All I can say that, as I expected, and as they have done during other product starts, the earning calls don't say much of anything that people want to hear.

Well, I hate to say it (ok, not really), but it is called an “earnings call” and not a “product release call”. So those that are involved in investing in TSLA I’m sure heard most of what they wanted to hear. Those who don’t want to hear about the TSLA financials probably shouldn’t listen to earnings calls.

I know, we have digested the release information, and studied every morsel that has come out. And we still want more. But the earnings call ain’t ever going to scratch that itch.

 

[SanJoseNinjya]

I’m rounding up uninvested and underinvested dollars to buy right now.


Based on what evidence?

I calculated backwards. there was a guy who were able to downgrade FS order to standard and was told earliest delivery was 10/31/24. I think this is the very optimistic schedule just like they said April for very recent order. so making it simple, FS throughout 2024. then start non fs in 2025. considering the current yield, and ramp, my guess is 20-30k , and max is 40K. thats how I got a conversion rate. I am still not deciding if I should go with FS or non. so doing my version of forecasting based on very little facts. let me know if you have your version.

 

[Ward L]

As I have said before, Tesla will make only FSCT until their factory can make more trucks than there are FSCT orders. This is why I ordered the FSCT now. I did not want to wait another unknown time before I got a CT.

 

[Sarge588]

I had the same reaction that many of you did when I first read the text from the call. I don't think it's as far down the road as folks think.

Saying "very encouraging". If the trend continues, and it likely will, we will soon sell out all the build in 2024" has a bunch of wiggle room in it. "if the trend continues" obviously lends itself to the possibility that it won't, so there is some space left in 2024 production (unknown amount) that has not been ordered.

I'd add that "soon sell out" could be 6 or 8 months down the road, what is "soon?" purposefully vague in my opinion, all of this helps drive the FOMO effect to increase sales. This is at least a possibility, anyway.

 

[kbolt]

I'm still under the belief system that they will go through the list once and offer foundation series before they go through the list with regular orders. Someone who ordered in the first minute of the announcement should get their foundation series before someone who only heard about the CT a month ago and wants a foundation series. However, from a business perspective, they should both be offered the foundation series. This gives Tesla more money to pay off their costs and it improves the product for regular people and it is great for TSLA investors.

 

[jerhenderson]

Wow!…Certainly glad I cashed out 600 TSLA shares at 252 to pay for FS AWD. Still invested, but this downturn pretty tough to take.

It's temporary.

 

[jerhenderson]

1. If the conversion is higher than 10%, they would give us some ball park number. I think its somewhere 1-2% of 2mil initial reservation. but its still 20K-40K orders.
( 5 my friends who reserved CT did not even consider ordering FS, they laughed at new price and cancelled) this is why they are desperately sending a invite to many (now its 11285XX or higher)
2. Given the current VIN creation pace, yes, Tesla might be able to fulfill most of 20-30K orders in 2024, so he was not telling a lie

Elon was talking about $100K FS only, there is non-FS CT in his head.
I do not think Tesla can build more than 40K units in 2024. If they could build 100K or 125K, its $10B or $12B revenue!!, they should have been far more bullish during the conference, but did not see any excitement. so my conclusion is 30K unit all FS and $3B in CT revenue in 2024 at best case

Desperate? Good grief you're imagining things. They are simply going through the list of people that put money down to say they were interested.

 

[Sjohnson20]

This is why I ordered the Foundation version who knows when a regular version will be available. And I’m not getting any younger lol

 

[Dirt Worker]

What a tragic waste of person. Guessing you are close to forty. So, if someone who was seventy ordered the CT and is now 74, how does that sound? Adding lost parents into a post? Young fella, I'm deeply sad and disappointed that we may be driving the same vehicle. Bad news, the CT doesn't come with the built in flower vase that was standard in your yellow beetle. If you want to get into a DeadPoolesk diatribe, I'm happy to share. BTW, if you shared some backstory of good times with dad or mom I would have softened a bit but you just state, Oh by the F'ing way, lost both parents at 14. Makes you read as kind of a self centered douche. Who knows, Maybe you volunteer at a soup kitchen. Nah, I doubt you even tip 10% when picking up your double latte.

 

[savagecabbage]

Are people with 11276XXXX reservations that were straight up skipped allowed to be pissed yet?

F’ing yes you are. I’m close to selling my model X, my Tesla stock and buying a Rivian.

 

[Alan]

I saw an interpretation that they were almost sold out of the foundation series. That makes more sense than soldout for the year

 

[cvalue13]

As far as I'm concerned, much ado about nothing. The numbers really don't seem to have changed since the last call.

notice any particular number that stayed the same, that jumped out at you?

??

 

[cvalue13]

I'd add that "soon sell out" could be 6 or 8 months down the road, what is "soon?"

in also hear only corporate speak

“if trend continues we’ll sell out soon” is corporate speak for “it’s going gangbusters y’all, just don’t ask what ‘soon’ means”

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