ED_SFO

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I mention volume production because people seem to only talk about starting production, and they are very different things. Deliveries have to start with someone sometime. Volume production in mid 2023 means that initial production and deliveries must start several months before mid year 2023.
“You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. I hope someday you'll join me.
Let’s hope I am lucky enough to be correct. Optimism defeats pessimism.
I agree we will see production test mules in Q1...production ready examples Q2 and by start of Q3 which is still mid 2023 we should see a good amount rolling off the line by end of July should be in the hundreds per week ramping from there. 🥲

 

charliemagpie

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By then we are building 10,000 battery packs per week, and we will be stacking them high so Jeff and Joe can video them every day lol
 

intimidator

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I mention volume production because people seem to only talk about starting production, and they are very different things. Deliveries have to start with someone sometime. Volume production in mid 2023 means that initial production and deliveries must start several months before mid year 2023.
“You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. I hope someday you'll join me.
Let’s hope I am lucky enough to be correct. Optimism defeats pessimism.
Tesla does great. Elon is amazing.
But I am skeptical about volume production by June of 2023. Simply because of the previous missed timelines.

We will see. Keep an eye on the 4680 production #s. GigaTexas needs to be pumping out quite a few 4680s by at least January so they can build up a supply for CyberTruck. 150,000+ Cybertrucks in 2023 would use a lot of battery cells.
 

intimidator

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I agree we will see production test mules in Q1...production ready examples Q2 and by start of Q3 which is still mid 2023 we should see a good amount rolling off the line by end of July should be in the hundreds per week ramping from there. 🥲
I honestly don't know why we don't see test mules now.

Tesla certainly has enough 4680s to build 3 or 4 test mules.

Maybe they are waiting until they get all the new presses in the factory, and up and running.

So keep an eye on when Tesla first pumps out some test mules. That will indicate they have locked down the engineering, plus the presses/equipment are up, tested and working.
 
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Raebrek

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Tesla certain has enough 4680s to build 3 or 4 test mules.
yes they have enough cells to state they are starting delivery of the Semi. My guess is they are waiting to install the equipment to make the Cyber Truck production line active. Then they can make some testers for real.
 

ED_SFO

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yes they have enough cells to state they are starting delivery of the Semi. My guess is they are waiting to install the equipment to make the Cyber Truck production line active. Then they can make some testers for real.
Yeah by this time he said everything is locked in design and prob feature wise...I bet the next 3 months is getting all the thousands of parts made to put the CT together and all the dies calibrated for the press. Once the press goes in and becomes live...we will see a ton of CT zipping around for testing. Prob in Q1 2023.

 

 
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