Musk Expects Cybertruck Production to Begin Mid-2023 [Per Q2 Earnings Call]

[TyPope]

Yep Volume production mid 23.

And he said equipment in 2 or so months, and did he say they would be getting things up and going ?

Finally !!! Will we receive information we crave for much sooner than we anticipate ?

We calculated a month or so ago, receiving the 9 ton Sept/Oct.
3 months to set up and production starting to gear up around March 23.

Volume = 5000 per week...250,000 per year.
A single 9 ton press can't do that, so we should be seeing 2 installed before March 23. ?

And if Volume is as we think, Can two 9 tons reach 300-400,000 per year by end of Dec 23 ?

Yeah, if the new giga casting machine can squeeze out 1 per 60 seconds, that'd be 480 per day running one shift on the machine. I see no reason the machine couldn't run 2 shifts... 960 per day is 4,800 per week which is a run rate of 240,000 per year with 2 weeks down time per year.

The old GM plant in Shreveport could pop out one S-10 every 54 seconds and THAT thing was probably more complicated than the Cybertruck in production (obviously, the CT is more complicated in general). I mean, the S10 had 27 different options for cross-body harness back in the day. Basically, every configuration available used a different wiring harness that went from the dash to the engine bay and that thing wasn't simple - it was about 6' long and the work station sucked for trying to engineer better flow...

Anyway, my point is that Tesla SHOULD be able to equal that feat if they can get materials fast enough.
A 54 second run time would pop out 533 vehicles per shift per day. How fast can one 9 ton giga caster make parts? (and remember, if there's only one giga caster for the CT line, it'll have to make two parts per truck... front and rear castings.

I didn't reserve right away but I AM within the first 500,000 ordered so it matters to me how fast they ramp up and how many they make per year... I'm sure it matters to almost everyone, actually.

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[Ogre]

Yeah, if the new giga casting machine can squeeze out 1 per 60 seconds, that'd be 480 per day running one shift on the machine. I see no reason the machine couldn't run 2 shifts... 960 per day is 4,800 per week which is a run rate of 240,000 per year with 2 weeks down time per year.

The old GM plant in Shreveport could pop out one S-10 every 54 seconds and THAT thing was probably more complicated than the Cybertruck in production (obviously, the CT is more complicated in general). I mean, the S10 had 27 different options for cross-body harness back in the day. Basically, every configuration available used a different wiring harness that went from the dash to the engine bay and that thing wasn't simple - it was about 6' long and the work station sucked for trying to engineer better flow...

Anyway, my point is that Tesla SHOULD be able to equal that feat if they can get materials fast enough.
A 54 second run time would pop out 533 vehicles per shift per day. How fast can one 9 ton giga caster make parts? (and remember, if there's only one giga caster for the CT line, it'll have to make two parts per truck... front and rear castings.

I didn't reserve right away but I AM within the first 500,000 ordered so it matters to me how fast they ramp up and how many they make per year... I'm sure it matters to almost everyone, actually.

If your reservation is under 100k or so, it’s most important when they start production. If your reservation is over 100k or so, it’s most important what “volume production” looks like in terms of units/ month.

If you are 550k down the line, it’s far more important that they crank out 10k/ week.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Yeah, if the new giga casting machine can squeeze out 1 per 60 seconds, that'd be 480 per day running one shift on the machine. I see no reason the machine couldn't run 2 shifts... 960 per day is 4,800 per week which is a run rate of 240,000 per year with 2 weeks down time per year.

The old GM plant in Shreveport could pop out one S-10 every 54 seconds and THAT thing was probably more complicated than the Cybertruck in production (obviously, the CT is more complicated in general). I mean, the S10 had 27 different options for cross-body harness back in the day. Basically, every configuration available used a different wiring harness that went from the dash to the engine bay and that thing wasn't simple - it was about 6' long and the work station sucked for trying to engineer better flow...

Anyway, my point is that Tesla SHOULD be able to equal that feat if they can get materials fast enough.
A 54 second run time would pop out 533 vehicles per shift per day. How fast can one 9 ton giga caster make parts? (and remember, if there's only one giga caster for the CT line, it'll have to make two parts per truck... front and rear castings.

I didn't reserve right away but I AM within the first 500,000 ordered so it matters to me how fast they ramp up and how many they make per year... I'm sure it matters to almost everyone, actually.

I think they mentioned in the Munro IDRA tour video the time between castings one of the 6 ton takes, based on how long it takes to cool the form. Can't remember off the top of my head exactly.

 

[Raebrek]

yes he said production mid-23.

You are correct he said "Volume Production" Middle of next year. not 2023

 

[jerhenderson]

You are correct he said "Volume Production" Middle of next year. not 2023

since we're in 2022 and he said middle next year I'll go Vulcan and assume that means 2023.

 

[jerhenderson]

Yeah, if the new giga casting machine can squeeze out 1 per 60 seconds, that'd be 480 per day running one shift on the machine. I see no reason the machine couldn't run 2 shifts... 960 per day is 4,800 per week which is a run rate of 240,000 per year with 2 weeks down time per year.

The old GM plant in Shreveport could pop out one S-10 every 54 seconds and THAT thing was probably more complicated than the Cybertruck in production (obviously, the CT is more complicated in general). I mean, the S10 had 27 different options for cross-body harness back in the day. Basically, every configuration available used a different wiring harness that went from the dash to the engine bay and that thing wasn't simple - it was about 6' long and the work station sucked for trying to engineer better flow...

Anyway, my point is that Tesla SHOULD be able to equal that feat if they can get materials fast enough.
A 54 second run time would pop out 533 vehicles per shift per day. How fast can one 9 ton giga caster make parts? (and remember, if there's only one giga caster for the CT line, it'll have to make two parts per truck... front and rear castings.

I didn't reserve right away but I AM within the first 500,000 ordered so it matters to me how fast they ramp up and how many they make per year... I'm sure it matters to almost everyone, actually.

that's where it gets interesting in what gets built first. I was only 46k in line on the Trimotor.

 

[charliemagpie]

The Tri motor will be built last. lol

 

[Crissa]

that's where it gets interesting in what gets built first. I was only 46k in line on the Trimotor.

Although, position overall matters for when they can jump into the configurator. At least, with the prior Tesla roll-outs.

-Crissa

 

[TyPope]

The Tri motor will be built last. lol

LOL. No. Tesla won't start out the Cybertruck by putting out a version that can be out towed, outrun, and out mileage by one of the legacy automakers. No. Tesla will start off by producing at least enough of the top of the line version just to be able to claim King of the Hill. Then, they may pop out some cheaper ones just to show they can... But, I kind of doubt they'll bother with the cheaper ones at least for a while.

 

[Sirfun]

I'm curious with all this talk of casting why not do a casting for inside the bed. That way they wouldn't have that piece of s*** plastic.

 

[TyPope]

I'm curious with all this talk of casting why not do a casting for inside the bed. That way they wouldn't have that piece of s*** plastic.

I don't think the inside of the bed will be plastic. There was a prototype that had some plastic but I'll bet it'll be tougher than that. I'm hoping they just did that t o mock up the part for further fitment work. Sort of like that carpeted box they had on the floor in front of the center seat.

 

[Ogre]

The Tri motor will be built last. lol

… or be replaced by the quad motor completely. Or be released after the dual motor but before the single motor.

Its Schödinger’s Truck. We won’t know until it’s observed.

 

[Crissa]

I'm curious with all this talk of casting why not do a casting for inside the bed. That way they wouldn't have that piece of s*** plastic.

The big casting is under the plastic.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

Its Schödinger’s Truck. We won’t know until it’s observed.

LOL. I just used the Schrödinger's cat reference then come over here to find Ogre preposted me... Oh well... Can't win them all.

 

[MikeInTheWoods]

Being Canadian is suffering.

• Our deliveries will lag behind US deliveries, potentially for a while if it's a lengthy production ramp start
• If I want my truck sooner rather than never, I'll need to switch to the quad motor config
• In addition to the exchange rate, we're also getting hit with the Luxury Goods tax for anything over $100k CAD.

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