📊 Cybertruck SUBMITTED ORDERS Tracking List & Stats [Add Yours!]

[donnyb]

The AWD has way more acceleration than you ever need, so will the RWD.

The Beast acceleration is just stupid.

The slowest Tesla is faster than most any other vehicle.

I bet Tesla offers an acceleration boost for the AWD down the road. Maybe we can get 3.7 for an extra $2k!

Sponsored

 

[Fleetwood75]

Here's some more data:

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

From the delivered list, the 24th user has the VIN in xxx1000 range, means about 1000 cybertruck being made. The listed user here only represented a small portion of the total users received the truck. So 1000/24=41.66

On the order list, there are 1077 users, for the rough proportion, 1077*41.66=44875！ This is almost the same as wall street predicted number for 2024.

in the earning release, someone said they were almost sold out for 2024 is true. And we know the latest RN range is 11285×××, that is 100,000 reservation. So i guess the FS is 50,000, with the FS take rate is close to 50%.

And for people whose orders placed in second half of January won't get their truck before end of the year.

Even a normal rollout wouldn't have a conversion rate of 50%, let alone this one with [extremely] raised prices from the unveiling. I would have been surprised with a 30% take rate w/o the price increase (let alone the FS price). I suspect that the take rate is below 20% and likely well below it. I am not checking your calculation because it doesn't pass the 'reasonableness' test.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

As a share holder, I'd be disappointed if they did !

I want them to ramp up soon - and start offering non-FS CTs to everyone.

The longer the FS thing goes on - the longer it is taking to ramp up.

I am not sure I see a significant difference between the FS and non-FS trucks from a manufacturing rate perspective. So they add a laser-engraved etching and some accessories. That should be an almost imperceptible amount of time in the factory. What is it about being a share holder that swings your view one way or another? Do you think that when they change over to non-FS ordering that the stock price will magically go up? It might go up when Wall Street sees a significant uptick in production and sales but that doesn't seem related to FS production in my mind. The ramp will be what the ramp is.

 

[Spacenoddle]

Even a normal rollout wouldn't have a conversion rate of 50%, let alone this one with [extremely] raised prices from the unveiling. I would have been surprised with a 30% take rate w/o the price increase (let alone the FS price). I suspect that the take rate is below 20% and likely well below it. I am not checking your calculation because it doesn't pass the 'reasonableness' test.

Yes, i am with you, and most of the others, 50% take rate is indeed unbelievable but from the following facts (if they are true)

1 Tesla claim they almost sold out for 2024 production without even open for non fs CT configuration

2 wall street predicted 2024 production is about 40k to 50k

3 currently the orders sits in 11285xxxx block with it 100k reservation.

Unless we are going to see dramatically FS orders coming later, the conclusion only can be one of these two:

1 take rate is close to 50%

Or

2 production rate 2024 is way below 40k-50k, will be more like in 10k-20k according the most people here think the take rate is 10%-20%.

Either way, for a 1/20 order holder with RN in 11285xxx, i don't have a chance to get the truck as Tesla said in Feb-Apri time frame.

please find my logical flaw to give me some hope.

 

[MillerTime007]

Ordered: AWD.

Although quite displeased with Trade-in Value change by Tesla. Selling trade-in privately instead

 

[Kiborg]

Hi,

Just added my order info.

Thanks

 

[Avery21]

Just added my order info. Thanks

 

[ChiTownCT]

Guess I never really looked into it deep enough, but I made my reservation on 11/25/2019 - RN11300xx - There are individuals that ordered after me that are getting invites to configure.. We still don't know why that's happening correct? I am based in Chicago..

 

[ddives]

Invite received and order placed so I've added myself to the list.

 

[cvalue13]

From the delivered list, the 24th user has the VIN in xxx1000 range, means about 1000 cybertruck being made. The listed user here only represented a small portion of the total users received the truck. So 1000/24=41.66

On the order list, there are 1077 users, for the rough proportion, 1077*41.66=44875！ This is almost the same as wall street predicted number for 2024.

in the earning release, someone said they were almost sold out for 2024 is true. And we know the latest RN range is 11285×××, that is 100,000 reservation. So i guess the FS is 50,000, with the FS take rate is close to 50%.

And for people whose orders placed in second half of January won't get their truck before end of the year.

posting to correct some errors / clarify some confusion in this post (or amplify other's prior corrections/clarifications)

First, seeing VIN 1000 does not mean they've built 1000 trucks, for two reasons. VINs 800-1199 were MC (manufacturing confirmation) unit VINS, of which 110 were built before a single saleable unit was ever produced. So, prior to VIN 1000 there are only 900 saleable VINS. Moreover, about half of the 900 VINs prior to VIN 1000 are Beast VINs, so while they may have been ordered, they sure havent been built (only ~60 Beasts have been built).

Second, the earnings call did not say they were almost sold out for 2024.

Third, the "latest RN" is not 11285 (there are 113's in there), but in any event Tesla is not going sequentially, is clearly leaving gaps (many people's number is well before 113's).

Fourth, the notion that people who placed orders in second half of January wont receive until end of year is incorrect, depending on we're discussing AWDs or Beasts. They are pumping out AWDs at a rate of >9-to-1 compared to Beasts. This is why latest known EDD for AWD is through April, while latest known EDD for Beast is through "late 2024."

 

[Sunnymans]

Just added my order information.

 

[Sleipnir]

Invite received and order placed last night. Delivery Feb - April 2024. RN11274

 

[CyberNickOH]

@cvalue13 has a great post in the VIN deliveries chat about all this. But one thing not mentioned is that making FS for longer than absolutely needed is not likely a goal. $20k to this company at the volumes we're talking doesn't move the stock needle at all.

2 possible reasons they are continuing, that cvalue13 said, not me.

-Parts constraints for non-FS, wheels for example, interior.
-Regulatory since the FS doesn't need an EPA rating, but retail would.

If they could get the $79,999.99999 retails going, they would sell more, not just because they are 20k less, but qualify for the tax credit.

 

[Fleetwood75]

Third, the "latest RN" is not 11285 (there are 113's in there), but in any event Tesla is not going sequentially, is clearly leaving gaps (many people's number is well before 113's).

Sparingly few RN's in the FS order list are higher than 11285 to the point where I genuinely wonder if those are the result of some personal connection favor or whatnot. If we ignore that small handful of exceptions the vast majority of invitation (>99%) have been between 11274 - 11285

Sponsored