Tesla Must be starting back at the front of the reservation line for FS CT

[Spacenoddle]

For marketing, it also makes sense to try to spread out these trucks across the United States. They probably have some type of algorithm based on addresses. To create the maximum exposure, they want to have Cybertrucks in as many areas as possible. You just don't want the first 1000 trucks in an area like LA.

In Fresno, they had a local news story about an owner of a Cybertruck. It may not depend on your reservation number, but your reservation number compared to people close to you in geographic locations. The free advertising Tesla gets by spreading these trucks across the US can't be ignored.

Yes, cannot agree more. The location ( aka local market) must be one of variables in their invitation algorithm along with the RN sequence.

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[LarryASilva]

I don't think you are helping people here with your speculation. No evidence and people may take you seriously. Tesla can't even get hub caps for the FS. What makes you think they even have all season tires ready to go for the regular Cybertruck? FS AWD is now pushed through April, which is probably June in Tesla time. Why would they even start taking orders now?

RESPECTFULLY ... you are SPECULATING also. We all have been speculating for over 4 years now on all things Cybertruck. That is why many of us check this page every day ... to hear about the latest news, rumors, and speculation ... including YOUR speculation today.

 

[MeadowShade]

It's more than obvious Tesla is batching reservations made the same day (24 hour period) and then using other metrics to decide the exact order. I don't mind that as long as people who ordered more than 24 hours after the reveal don't jump in front. So far, we haven't seen anything like that going on.

Imagine having 2 million leads that paid $100 or more to be a lead, then sending out invites to those same people to pay $1,000 that is NOT refundable, to wait in yet another line of unknown length ... starting to feel like Walt Disney World. We get to pay and wait and then pay and wait again ... But ... I can still not imagine what it looks like from Tesla's view.
I have ordered an X, in 2019 that came BEFORE the expected date, then again last year I wanted Hardware 4 and I ordered a new X and it came a full month earlier than expected.

 

[CyberGus]

Imagine having 2 million leads that paid $100 or more to be a lead...

Imagine a world without hypothetical situations...

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I know, reality of it is a bitch. choices to be made now. I was set on waiting before when I was passed up, but now I am wanting it now and not wanting to wait.
Like a kid in a candy shop.

I am missing the analogy. A kid in a candy shop wants everything. You are trying to decide on something or nothing. But I do understand your frustration. Just order it. Or don't and let your spot trickle up the RN line.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Imagine a world without hypothetical situations...

Probably would be a boring place

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I know, reality of it is a bitch. choices to be made now. I was set on waiting before when I was passed up, but now I am wanting it now and not wanting to wait.
Like a kid in a candy shop.

I met a guy yesterday who got the invite in the first group. He is young, has 3 kids, and they really need a van or an SUV. I can definitely understand him passing up the invitation (as he said he has done). Someone like me who has been saving, is retired, has no one depending on my assets, has no reason to not order, but I have no invitation. The world is a funny place (not laughing).

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

This forum is becoming funny to a point of ridiculous on all the numbers tossed around.

"90% acceptance rate"
"50,000 invites sent out"
this that the other.

No one knows, so its anyones guess, but when I see crazy stupid non-foundational numbers (pun intended) blurted out as fact, its hard not to engage.

If you can afford the truck and you like it, buy it, if not, move on. It's a premium on a premium truck, it's common. So saying you like Tesla because they don't do this, well, they are right now, it's just that Tesla is getting the markup, not a dealership. My ford dealer wanted 10k over sticker on my non-raptor Bronco. We worked out a deal and I own it, because I like it and can afford it. If you are on the fence, that says your decision is made. Wait for the $80k version, IMO it will be better than the FS anyways because of time to mature. I want mine now.

You are right, there are some bizarre guesses. I think that 90% is way too high, but the 50K invites is too low. If we all believe the RN numbering system is remotely viable, then the difference between RN 11275XXX and RN11300XXX is 250,000. If they got out to RN11285, and if they actually sent invitations to everyone (which we know they did not), then they would have sent out about 100K invitations by now. I am betting that the conversion rate is closer to 10%, maybe less. Not that this means anything. The only thing that matters is whether you get an invitation.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

RESPECTFULLY ... you are SPECULATING also. We all have been speculating for over 4 years now on all things Cybertruck. That is why many of us check this page every day ... to hear about the latest news, rumors, and speculation ... including YOUR speculation today.

just daily?

 

[Ward L]

I did not want the FSCT initially. I convinced myself if I did not get the FSCT, I would be waiting until 2025. I love almost everything about the FSCT. The FSD not a development priority and getting the production bugs worked out are the two issues that bother me. Hubcaps? Not a concern. I did not want to wait, so I ordered on 12/31. The scary thing is I don't see too many deliveries with orders after 12/8 on our "Delivery" thread.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I did not want the FSCT initially. I convinced myself if I did not get the FSCT, I would be waiting until 2025. I love almost everything about the FSCT. The FSD not a development priority and getting the production bugs worked out are the two issues that bother me. Hubcaps? Not a concern. I did not want to wait, so I ordered on 12/31. The scary thing is I don't see too many deliveries with orders after 12/8 on our "Delivery" thread.

At least you have an order in. What’s the problem?

 

[cgladue]

Hello everyone,
I know I have been complaining that Tesla passed me up on the reservation list.
Well! I just got the invitation to purchase the FS version. It looks like Tesla is starting back at the top of the list and hitting up on the reservations that they passed over for the FS. I would love to accommodate this invitation, but really don't want to pay this $20K +tax = $1200($6000 (instead of $4800))+$7500 (tax credit lose). This means I will pay $28,700 more for the FS model. I will get about FSD (which I have currently and don't really use much), some accessories, House Power share (cost me $4000 to hook up) and a badge. Maybe worth a total of $18,000 MAX. So about $2000 I would normally want to order after purchase of Standard CT.
So, $28,700 - $2000 accessories = $26,700 extra for the FS.
IS IT REALLY WORTH IT?
Waiting means end of year most likely before delivery of normal CT.
Time for Tesla to get battery technology improved, Correct some manufacturing current issues, update software issues.

Not waiting means:
Getting the CT now, paying more, living with non FDS and Auto pilot for a while, living with current battery efficiency.

Frustrating on what I should Do.
What do you all think?

so you complained that they passed you by and now you are complaining that the price is too high ? so what is it you just want to complain ? whats next ?

 

[MarkM913]

Congrats

Congrats! What was your RN?

 

[Ward L]

You are right, there are some bizarre guesses. I think that 90% is way too high, but the 50K invites is too low. If we all believe the RN numbering system is remotely viable, then the difference between RN 11275XXX and RN11300XXX is 250,000. If they got out to RN11285, and if they actually sent invitations to everyone (which we know they did not), then they would have sent out about 100K invitations by now. I am betting that the conversion rate is closer to 10%, maybe less. Not that this means anything. The only thing that matters is whether you get an invitation.

I believe they will send an invitation for every last one of us on the 2,000,000 reservations list to order a FSCT before they produce a standard CT. That is my belief based on it being good way for Tesla to maximize their profit. The Powershare option also gives them a way to sell more solar panels and stay connected with owners through home power generation. When I realized that was a possibility, I ordered a FSCT immediately. You tell me, why wouldn't Tesla offer a FSCT to 2,000,000? Ford offered their Lightning truck to 333,000,000 Americans. Same for the Riv.

I keep thinking of the TV commercial where this tech startup made a gadget and put it on the internet for sale. They were not sure how many they could sell. They had a counter showing sales and were super excited when they got the first sale, then another, and another sale. They were dancing for excitement of more sales! Then the counter started spinning out of control and soon the techies realized they would struggle to meet demand and became terrified at the prospects of out-of-control sales. Wonder how similar this TV commercial is to the Cybertruck story of overwhelming sales.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I believe they will send an invitation for every last one of us on the 2,000,000 reservations list to order a FSCT before they produce a standard CT. That is my belief based on it being good way for Tesla to maximize their profit. The Powershare option also gives them a way to sell more solar panels and stay connected with owners through home power generation. When I realized that was a possibility, I ordered a FSCT immediately. You tell me, why wouldn't Tesla offer a FSCT to 2,000,000? Ford offered their Lightning truck to 333,000,000 Americans. Same for the Riv.

I keep thinking of the TV commercial where this tech startup made a gadget and put it on the internet for sale. They were not sure how many they could sell. They had a counter showing sales and were super excited when they got the first sale, then another, and another sale. They were dancing for excitement of more sales! Then the counter started spinning out of control and soon the techies realized they would struggle to meet demand and became terrified at the prospects of out-of-control sales. Wonder how similar this TV commercial is to the Cybertruck story of overwhelming sales.

We willl see I guess. I was hopeful before Tesla went back to the beginning of the list. Maybe we will know more in a week or two.

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