Tesla Must be starting back at the front of the reservation line for FS CT

[U92]

any advice on Financing best rates ?

Credit unions. Mine -Navy Federal Credit Union. Member for 17 years. Likely around mid 6% apr. For me. I will likely get one this summer to fall so likely see lower rates with prime rates dropping soon.

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[MeadowShade]

I met a guy yesterday who got the invite in the first group. He is young, has 3 kids, and they really need a van or an SUV. I can definitely understand him passing up the invitation (as he said he has done). Someone like me who has been saving, is retired, has no one depending on my assets, has no reason to not order, but I have no invitation. The world is a funny place (not laughing).

I am in the same place as you ... except I got and invite. So, after thinking about it overnight, I ordered. I had an X for almost 3 years and follow Tesla closely, especially FSD. Hardware 4 and Sound Cancelling is why I got a new X last year and went without FSD, for months and the Sound Cancelling is honestly, a joke. The car is much quieter but the Sound Cancelling barely makes any difference at all to my ears.
Getting it after this initial Foundation group could be a LOT better. Batteries and some hardware upgrades ... my new X is a LOT better in most every way than the 2019 one. Your CT will be too.

 

[MeadowShade]

You are right, there are some bizarre guesses. I think that 90% is way too high, but the 50K invites is too low. If we all believe the RN numbering system is remotely viable, then the difference between RN 11275XXX and RN11300XXX is 250,000. If they got out to RN11285, and if they actually sent invitations to everyone (which we know they did not), then they would have sent out about 100K invitations by now. I am betting that the conversion rate is closer to 10%, maybe less. Not that this means anything. The only thing that matters is whether you get an invitation.

THE YOUTubers , TFL, had a reservation number that was around 50,000 and mine was around 100,000. The invitations came out two weeks apart. IF that is right, who knows, this math makes sense. 100,000 CTs in 2024, average 2,000 per week or 400 per day ... wait, way too many ... 50,000 in 2024, 1,000 per week, 200 per day (BIG Number!!!) AND they are converting 25% of RN's to orders because 50% drop off (multiple orders, no financing. have other truck, etc.) and another 50% need to wait.
So Tesla wants to book production for 2024, at 50,000 to 100,000 (higher rate with 3rd shift starting in June). So 200,000 knocked off the RN list, 100,000 invites sent and 50,000 orders.
That is my Out of My A Guess.

 

[CyberT1]

You can look at all my last posts and my reasoning has been more sound than the people speculating on here. I go by past Tesla trends and current data.

I pushed back against the nonsense that people were saying about batteries being the bottle neck. I pushed back early against the insanity that 1000 FS will be produced. I pushed back against the insanity that 80% of orders for FS were accounted for on this forum. I am now pushing back against the narrative that Tesla will soon be sending out non FS invites.

I do agree with you if you want a Cybertruck this year 2024 I think it will have to be the FS. I had the same thoughts as others and decided not to wait and going with the FS waiting now for the Vin all financing complete. I am ready.

 

[intimidator]

It is worth it to me. It would most likely be 2025 before you get another opportunity. By the time you get another chance, there might not be the $7500 credit available.

Lots of people still living in fantasy land thinking the non FS will be ready for them to buy soon. 2024 is the FS year and unfortunately that is reality.

Congrats!

Yes, many many will be waiting well into 2025.
If you ordered Dec 1st, 2019, you are looking at Dec 2025 - 6 years

 

[MeadowShade]

And then this came out!

 

[Sousray]

Congrats! What was your RN?

112745198

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Yes, many many will be waiting well into 2025.
If you ordered Dec 1st, 2019, you are looking at Dec 2025 - 6 years

Not sure what hat you pulled that out of but I am hoping that it is the wrong hat. I reserved very early on 11/26/2019 and I really want the truck in 2024.

 

[intimidator]

Not sure what hat you pulled that out of but I am hoping that it is the wrong hat. I reserved very early on 11/26/2019 and I really want the truck in 2024.

If you ordered on Dec 1, you are probably #375,000 in line.
Ordering on 11/26 is WAY better.

If you want a Foundation Series, that moves you way up the list as well.

If you want a non FS, $79,000 Cybertruck, it is unclear when a Nov 26, 2019 reservation holder can get that version CT. Timelines for anyone Dec 1st, 2019 and later are just really murky.

 

[geoffgeoff]

I don't think you are helping people here with your speculation. No evidence and people may take you seriously. Tesla can't even get hub caps for the FS. What makes you think they even have all season tires ready to go for the regular Cybertruck? FS AWD is now pushed through April, which is probably June in Tesla time. Why would they even start taking orders now?

Nearly everyone on this forum speculates on whatever. Maybe you'd like to be the "Chief Opinion Monitor" - ya know, just so everyone toes the line you prefer?

 

[alzwanen]

I'd wait if I were you.

 

[dandor]

Nearly everyone on this forum speculates on whatever. Maybe you'd like to be the "Chief Opinion Monitor" - ya know, just so everyone toes the line you prefer?

If opinions have some merit or logic behind them, I am fine with it. Conspiracy theories or speculation based on a feeling drives me nuts.

Everyone wants to believe you will get your invite to the $72490 Cybertruck in a few weeks. It doesn't even exist with IRS. FS for the beasts are end of 2024. No evidence or logic is made on this speculation.

 

[Alan]

I think they are about done offering the foundation series and that’s why they have gone back to front of the res line.

 

[DfibRL8R]

I think they are about done offering the foundation series and that’s why they have gone back to front of the res line.

Or maybe they got far enough into the Texas and California early reservations that they are now cycling through the early reservations in other regions? Makes sense to have the first rounds of deliveries in only a few regions for service and delivery team training simplicity. Perhaps now they are rolling out to other areas. I'm in Northern VA (DC metro region) and just got my invitation to Configure at 12:01 am on 12/31, RN 11275xxxx (placed as soon as orders opened 11/21/2019).

 

[jerhenderson]

I would never trust Tesla to go by reservation number. Look how it worked out for you with the FS invite.

If you had expected that, I'd wonder why. Reservations aren't orders.

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