VINs Pending Delivery Chart & National Map 🗺️

[Spacenoddle]

@agordon117

Added status pie chart to state detail view, so can see an entire state's order breakdown

What reporting engine do you use for these data analysis?

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[cgladue]

What reporting engine do you use for these data analysis?

its custom, i write it myself, C# HTML and Javascript

 

[cybrtrk88]

1) 11285 AWD
2) 1/25/23
3) N/A
4) N/A
5) CA

 

[asucher]

1) 11279 (Cyberbeast)
2) 12.28.2023
3) N/A
4) N/A
5) NC

 

[ArizonaTea]

Oh man, nice work on the web scraping.

I only reply in a thread of my order status, you got me in the list.

Great work, we need a place to check the VIN to deliver status since there is no tracking for this on this forums.

 

[Mal]

@agordon117 Ask and you shall receive:

https://www.cybertruck.vin/order

Wow, super nice. Thanks for putting this together!

 

[mark555055c]

Very cool, thanks for this.

 

[kerry986]

No delivery date ?

March 13 ?

RN #11277
Oregon
Config 12/9/23
VIN 2/22/24
VIN #24xx

 

[mark555055c]

Nice work!

I'm gonna go ahead and say that march 31st is not happening, lol. With beast above, without below.

If you combine this with my 1:8 reporting assumption, this says there are 3712 AWD orders that still do not have vins from 12/8-1/10, and were told january-march delivery. They are currently running at a rate of about 1700 trucks per month, and only have been running that many since 2/29. This means if they stopped going out of order, and continue at the current production rate, it would take 65 days from today to assign vin numbers to all of the outstanding Jan-Mar promised orders. Plus avg 17 days vin to delivery.

Even if we assume absolute best case of 10 days vin to delivery, there would need to be 310 trucks in the outbound lot per day to fulfill the outstanding AWD orders that were promised Jan-Mar.

And like, this is all best case math. We've seen a 2/20 order get a vin assigned in cali, so we know they are going way outside of the sample range that I've picked.


And, sure, linear production rate is not going to turn out to be correct, but the amount they would have to ramp to fill these orders by march 31st, we'd be seeing 500 trucks in outbound per day towards the end of the possible march delivery window (3/14 for most states, 3/20 for some), which is a run rate that they are not projecting reaching until next year.

Looks like my pessimism about march delivery was not unfounded. Even if tomorrow, they doubled the trucks that leave the factory per day from my guess of 57 to 114, it would still take 32 days to assign vin numbers to these orders, plus 17 days vin to delivery. We'll be lucky if we all have trucks before May for Jan 10 and earlier orders

I don't know, I like the logic, but I'm still seeing the "order to delivery" field on the delivered cybertruck sheet in the 70-80 day range. If this holds true, and I don't see why it wouldn't, the Jan 9 orders at least in the est delivery window. The unknown factor I guess is, how many "special" folks they shoved in the middle of existing orders.

We shall see. I have my pitchfork ready to go if my 1/9 order does have a VIN assignment in the next 1-3 weeks.

 

[agordon117]

I don't know, I like the logic, but I'm still seeing the "vin to delivery" field on the delivered cybertruck sheet in the 70-80 day range. If this holds true, and I don't see why it wouldn't, the Jan 9 orders at least in the est delivery window. The unknown factor I guess is, how many "special" folks they shoved in the middle of existing orders.

We shall see. I have my pitchfork ready to go if my 1/9 order does have a VIN assignment in the next 1-3 weeks.

It wasn't a vin assignment window, it was a delivery window.

Vin to delivery is too long to make it heading east. Some of us will get lucky, but some AWD orders in the lower 48 will reach 100-120 days before delivery unless things change drastically.
Never wanted to be wrong about anything more in my entire life. But the numbers in my other post expect that zero beasts are made and zero vins are assigned out of order. So even if they double production tomorrow, it won't change by a lot from what my worst case is. Because factoring in that beasts are being assigned near 50% right now, and they continue to go wildly out of order, that means doubling production would basically get us to my worst case numbers rather than my best case.

The reason, btw, that you are still seeing 70-80 days for delivery is because people in cali are getting vin assignments at less than 30 days, and short vin to delivery. But it isn't the case as you head east, and will continue to climb. I'll go through and check in a while but I think that there were only a handful of East coast vins in the last week.

 

[SentinelOne]

its custom, i write it myself, C# HTML and Javascript

and ty for doing it for the group!

 

[TRKTSLA]

1) 11278
2) 12/12/23
3) 2/28/24 (I think)
4) 3/9/24
5) CA

 

[cgladue]

1) 11278
2) 12/12/23
3) 2/28/24 (I think)
4) 3/9/24
5) CA

thank you !


Everyone who has gotten a VIN or delivery date or delivered truck PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE post it somewhere (here ideally) so we can use it in our tracking ive had SO many people that i reached out to resond saying "oh yea i got my vin or delivered truck" already

 

[ohtruck]

1) 11274 (AWD)
2) 12/16/23
3) N/A
4) N/A
5) OH

I'll get a VIN any day now... ?

 

[agordon117]

1) 11274 (AWD)
2) 12/16/23
3) N/A
4) N/A
5) OH

I'll get a VIN any day now... ?

which delivery center? I'm keeping a separate list of the ohio orders. If you're at lyndhurst that's bad news for me, lol

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