Reconsidering My CT order, YouTube Reviewers stating it's another Edsel, worst new car flop ever

[yamadirt]

Being a Cybertruck owner is like the vehicle version of the movie Shallow Hal.

I almost didn’t buy due to clickbait.

Then I actually drove one. It was so much better than anything else I looked at and it wasn’t even close.

The Cybertruck gets clicks / views online. Negative press gets more clicks than positive press. Clicks are how the media, including influencers online make money.

I’ve had zero issues with my truck other than people being nasty here and there. The truck itself is amazing.

…but what you are saying is a valid concern. Even even if it’s the right vehicle for you, you are going to have to know that you will have a bunch of people in your life that are seeing the same videos… and then you’re going to find yourself having to be on the receiving end if “I heard XYZ” exaggerated claim from a clickbait article, post or video.

Right on. For a minute I thought I was the one who had written this. I totally agree.

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[scottf200]

By "OTA" do you mean Over The Air updates?
I remember when Rivian rolled out such and update and the vehicles which installed the update were "bricked" for several days.

1 out of 100s. If you have followed closely they have had many many successful OTAs.

Tesla has had their share of ups and downs in the OTA-land!! Many have started going out and then stopped or rolled back (removed after download) ... then another dot release goes out to fix what they broke. Certainly a learning process and Tesla has figured out how to incremently roll them out as to not break all for the calmity. Now Tesla had 100s of active OTA version across all their cars and has to constently figure out upgrade paths or how to deal with it.

Multiple reports emerged of Tesla Cybertrucks becoming inoperable ("bricked") after installing software update 2024.45.25.5. Owners reported their trucks becoming completely unresponsive. In some cases, the charging cable was also stuck and couldn't be removed.

There are four pages worth in just the past few years here. Several required 3 dot releases to fix things (eg. 2025.14.3.2)
https://teslafi.com/firmware

 

[Arctic_White]

A very long time follower.
So you have not seen all the stuff they did for Gen 2 or the R2x in terms of savings and engineering. Got it.
Lot of positives including a popular EDV (Amazon and other companies now), very strong customer base, their OTAs are at or better handled than Tesla (huge) do to better vertical integration than most, Amazon backing, VW investments (meet gross margins recently for this) and arch usage, strong IL manufacturing and expanding and new supply chain setup there. R2x in IL. A variety of things happening. RJ has made a ton of great moves and gets great response in his actions and interviews.

I think a guy named Elon once said that production is hard. Unless Rivian can scale (250K+ units per year), they are doomed.

I hope that their gen 2 and gen 3 stuff is amazing and that they are able to scale. Good luck to them, either way, and I wish them the best.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Your comments don't jive with reality. Apparently have have not followed closely on what they did with the R1x Gen 2 or all the things that are coming out with R2x and cost savings they are/have done.

Yeah, Rivian used to lose $50k on EVERY vehicle they sold - and that’s gross vehicle margin loss - not corporate losses, which were MUCH higher per vehicle. Now they’ve pared the gross margin loss per vehicle down to about $30k per vehicle as of last quarter. They claimed a gross margin profit, but only with regulatory credits. Looking at vehicle sales less actual costs of vehicle production, they still lost $30k per vehicle. Rivians simply have way too much engineering and physical content to make a profit per vehicle just on production costs, forgetting marketing, G&A, R&D, and capex (new plants, etc.). There’s no way to fix that - they have tried valiantly but the ship has sailed - making the vehicles simpler and with fewer premium materials was tried, but there is a limit given the cost of their motor and battery tech, and basic design ethos.

Rivian has never sold a single vehicle at a gross profit - and likely never will as they go off the cliff. Meanwhile, Tesla has never sold a single vehicle at a gross margin loss (sales price per vehicle net of warranty reserve and transportation costs, less the physical cost of producing that vehicle, excluding R&D, plant amortization, G&A, etc.). Their average positive margin since inception is about 23%, has sometimes been over 30%, and has never been below 15%. Meanwhile Rivian only dreams of that performance.

You point out the next gen stuff. Too little too late, and still way to much content compared with what a consumer will pay for a vehicle - and now Tesla has predatory pricing power - whatever any other EV maker can do (outside China), Tesla can do 2x. Rivian can chase until they run out of money, but run out of money they will. Their carcass will be picked for the usable parts, such as the delivery truck business, and maybe the factories and certain design elements have some residual value to someone (Tesla?), but it is going the way of the Tucker Torpedo. Great engineering that few could afford and that could not be made cost-competitive.

 

[scottf200]

You point out the next gen stuff.

Yes, I've heard your same rants in other threads.

You ignore when Tesla only had the Model S large and expensive sedan, relying on credits and with hopes of a smaller Model 3 to get to affordability. The Model S, X, 3, Y all have similar plain exterior and interior styles and are getting long in the tooth. You ignored that the R2, R2X (then smaller CUV R3, R3X) are Rivian's equivalent to get to more affordable cars which are made in the USA. China is obviously (seeing latest sales data [link] ) eating Tesla's lunch and that is the largest market.

While the challenges Rivian faces, particularly regarding achieving consistent gross profitability without relying on regulatory credits, are significant and should not be dismissed, your bearish statements might be overly pessimistic. Rivian has demonstrated progress in reducing costs, has strong strategic partnerships, and is developing a more cost-effective platform with the R2.

The ultimate success of Rivian will depend on its ability to:

• Continue to aggressively reduce production costs.
• Continuing into the EDV market as they continue selling to Amazon and have started selling to other companies (also continue on fleet management link this new article [link] )
• Successfully launch and scale production of the R2 at a competitive price point (IL, GA).
• Further leverage its partnerships with V[W] (and Amazon).
• Maintain its strong brand loyalty and attract a broader customer base.

 

[dalton108]

Yes, I've heard your same rants in other threads.

You ignore when Tesla only had the Model S large and expensive sedan, relying on credits and with hopes of a smaller Model 3 to get to affordability. The Model S, X, 3, Y all have similar plain exterior and interior styles and are getting long in the tooth. You ignored that the R2, R2X (then smaller CUV R3, R3X) are Rivian's equivalent to get to more affordable cars which are made in the USA. China is obviously (seeing latest sales data [link] ) eating Tesla's lunch and that is the largest market.

While the challenges Rivian faces, particularly regarding achieving consistent gross profitability without relying on regulatory credits, are significant and should not be dismissed, your bearish statements might be overly pessimistic. Rivian has demonstrated progress in reducing costs, has strong strategic partnerships, and is developing a more cost-effective platform with the R2.

The ultimate success of Rivian will depend on its ability to:

• Continue to aggressively reduce production costs.
• Continuing into the EDV market as they continue selling to Amazon and have started selling to other companies (also continue on fleet management link this new article [link] )
• Successfully launch and scale production of the R2 at a competitive price point (IL, GA).
• Further leverage its partnerships with VS (and Amazon).
• Maintain its strong brand loyalty and attract a broader customer base.

I don’t know what “Punxsutawney Phil” is talking about (literally, because I muted him long ago and can only see his name- I’ll just assume it’s nonsense), but I will tell you this much: the R3 and R3x are going to sell like fucking hot cakes!

Bookmark it! I’ll be back to tell you I told you so.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Yes, I've heard your same rants in other threads.

You ignore when Tesla only had the Model S large and expensive sedan, relying on credits and with hopes of a smaller Model 3 to get to affordability. The Model S, X, 3, Y all have similar plain exterior and interior styles and are getting long in the tooth. You ignored that the R2, R2X (then smaller CUV R3, R3X) are Rivian's equivalent to get to more affordable cars which are made in the USA. China is obviously (seeing latest sales data [link] ) eating Tesla's lunch and that is the largest market.

While the challenges Rivian faces, particularly regarding achieving consistent gross profitability without relying on regulatory credits, are significant and should not be dismissed, your bearish statements might be overly pessimistic. Rivian has demonstrated progress in reducing costs, has strong strategic partnerships, and is developing a more cost-effective platform with the R2.

The ultimate success of Rivian will depend on its ability to:

• Continue to aggressively reduce production costs.
• Continuing into the EDV market as they continue selling to Amazon and have started selling to other companies (also continue on fleet management link this new article [link] )
• Successfully launch and scale production of the R2 at a competitive price point (IL, GA).
• Further leverage its partnerships with V[W] (and Amazon).
• Maintain its strong brand loyalty and attract a broader customer base.

Wow, what a Rivian fanboi. No one accuses me of being a TSLA fanboi. Your response reads like a Rivian press release and is just nuts. Have you actually read their financials? I have, in detail, every quarter. I use them in my finance classes at Johns Hopkins.

There is zero prospect for Rivian to ever show a profit from automotive production and sales. That’s zero - there is simply no path to get there, only aspirational talk - that you parrot above. They have already done everything possible to reduce production costs. That isn’t the issue. The issue is that the product is too good - it is too expensive to make - its specs are for a $125k vehicle - and so its content is that of a $125k vehicle. They have pushed suppliers to reduce costs and may have gotten that down to $100k per copy - but that’s still $25k more than consumers will or can pay for a midsized SUV or truck. That cannot be fixed, even with the new models.

I briefly toyed with buying a Rivian in March, so test drove one. Wonderful - except for one thing - their software is awful. OK, two things, the cabin is way too small and the back seat sucks. The user interface is fine, but FSD in our two Teslas is the true game changer - it is beyond belief how good it has become - and Rivian has neither a nacient version nor anything in planning to catch up - instead they are going with Ford and GM copies, using mapped roads and geofencing to accomplish a limited version of self driving - if they ever really deliver it. Failure to have that or any real prospect for self driving made my choice of the CT very easy - there is simply no comparison.

The Rivian salespeople admitted it is a huge issue and is costing a lot of sales. My sales rep at Rivian personally owns a M3 for that very reason. Rivian will not exist in its current form a year from now. As I said above, its pieces may exist in some other form, but its cash burn is unsustainable, and it sales trajectory is negative for a permanent reason (fewer sales every quarter), unlike Tesla’s short term blips.

I see your anti-Tesla statements for what they are - uninformed and intentionally self-confirming, but also based on either false understanding of actual history, or intentional misstatement. For example, you say “Tesla only had the Model S large and expensive sedan, relying on credits and with hopes of a smaller Model 3 to get to affordability.”. This is the exact OPPOSITE of the truth. Tesla intentionally sold a hugely profitable MS and MX initially - in order to grow the company profitably so they could afford to ramp up, using profits to design, equip and tool for producing the consumer model 3 and ultimately the world’s most successful car the MY. They were gross profit positive from DAY ONE. Margins are coming IN now from their highs in the 2013-2018 years because they are reducing prices due to wider acceptance and lower priced vehicles, and in the process, putting teh squeeze on all of Tesla’s EV competition - because they are so profitable, they can now be predatory.

When I paid six digits for my first two MS and my MX, they were making 35% gross margins. You cannot get around the fact that Rivian has never had a positive gross margin on a single automotive sale. Tesla has had positive gross margins on millions of sales - and that fact includes every single Tesla vehicle ever sold. Facts are sticky things, but truth is truth.

 

[BlueLightning]

Well they report that the price of the CT used is coming down. Still not below $70k. Seen this article thrashing the possibility of these thousands of “New” CT sitting unsold could all develop problems. But don’t all cars just sit and sit and sit if they go unsold. Tesla must rotate them hopefully like a ICE dealership would.

Come on “the $55k 2024 AWD CT” one day!

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