With sales down is the CT going to become a Delorean

[REM]

LOL, Tesla energy's business is just repackaging batteries that other companies manufacture at astronomical markups. How long do you really think that gravy train is going to last?

Ah, ok. So you finally said enough to out yourself as an ignorant FUDster.

You should short Tesla's stock. They are going to go bankwupt

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[HaulingAss]

LOL, Tesla energy's business is just repackaging batteries that other companies manufacture at astronomical markups. How long do you really think that gravy train is going to last?

I'm hoping you simply don't know much detail about Tesla's grid scale energy storage business. If so, you really need to learn how not to opinionate on things you are ignorant of. It's not a good look.

But I suspect @REM probably hit the nail on the head.

 

[Mini2nut]

With the $7500 federal tax credit expiring on 9/30 I predict Tesla will be dropping MSRP's on all models that currently qualify in Q4.

I think we will see great Q3 delivery numbers as buyers who qualify rush to beat the 9/30 tax credit deadline.

 

[HaulingAss]

Where did you get that? There is no limit on production. Their current limit is demand, which is growing.

Demand is highly elastic based on price. Lower price = higher sales. Production is limited by how much money GM is willing to lose chasing higher sales. And common sense says they just want to make enough to have a presence in the EV space until the cost to manufacture is lower than the price they will fetch in the market. That point could conceivably happen suddenly if GM can stick around long enough, which is certainly possible with enough government protectionism in the American market. But I think they are still many years from being able to support their bloated and inefficient manufacturing model with EV sales.

Even in the best case scenario, GM will be a shadow of their former self. More likely, they will not survive without another government bailout using taxpayer money. And that might not be an option depending upon the political situation at the time. You can count me as one patriotic American who does NOT support the multiple bailouts of a company that repeatedly fails due to a lack of exceptionalism. Capitalism can only work because it's a merit based system and merit is not measured by what a company achieved in the past, it's measured by what a company has become. Their EVs are too expensive to produce to be mass market vehicles without selling them at a large loss. That's not sustainable in high volumes.

And, no, GM did not pass Tesla in EVs by 2025 as Mary Barra famously proclaimed around 2020. Not even a close call. It was obvious that they wouldn't, but she said it anyway.

 

[SlegMD]

Tesla needs to improve their exposure to the general public. Most people have no idea Tesla is a tech company. Most people have no idea what the cyber truck does.

Had this convo the other day with a patient, an educated man;

“So your trip went well? You took the cybertruck”

“Ya, truck drove itself, it was actually fairly relaxing”

“Where did you put all your stuff? Where does it all fit?”

“???…?”
“What do you mean?

“…where does all your gear, dogs, etc go?”

“In the bed, there’s a 6ft bed in the truck…”

“Really!? How? You mean it all fits there?

“Yes… it’s a truck….”

There are too many general convos like this.
And then you have to correct the FUDsters

 

[roadrunner32]

And don't forget all of the negative posts on social media about the truck as a reason they are not selling. I believe once that subsides, sales of the CT pick up will pick up.

Factors negatively affecting sales:
1. polarizing appearance
2. perception that if cost at least and more than $100,000.00
3. daily Barrage of negative social media
4. It is a bigger and more visible of a target to the haters Its been talked about plenty on this site

All of that can be overcome in time, and there are plenty of people that pay more for their gas pickups than the current CT price of $80,000,

Two more reasons for the CT not selling:
5. the perception that you need a gas car or pickup because you don't want to be stranded if Electricity goes out.
6: people don't want to stick out and the cyber truck does stick out.

The last two reasons may cause me to sell the model Y replace it with a Lexus which has not changed in the last ten years at least. May be the only way I can get the CT.

 

[HaulingAss]

The very question posed by this thread's title is ridiculous. The Delorean was in production for nearly 2 years, 3 months longer than total Cybertruck production, and Tesla has sold over 5 times as many Cybertrucks in that shorter period. That's five times the sales and production in a shorter period. The Cybertruck is the best-selling electric pickup in the world. Unlike Delorean, Tesla is under no threat of bankruptcy, and bankruptcy is why Delorean production ended.

John Delorean thought he could go up against GM and the other big manufacturers but they made sure he failed in dramatic fashion. Elon Musk thought he might not be successful challenging the big automakers but he succeeded in dramatic fashion by accelerating the transition to electric cars using first-principles reasoning. Tesla designed and manufactures the best-selling car in the world for two years in a row. The media doesn't want to tell you that the best-selling vehicle in the world is not a gas vehicle, it's a pure electric vehicle, or that, for the first time in many decades, the best-selling car in the world is made by an American manufacturer. Today is the celebration of the 4th of July, the birth of American independence, so I think it's fitting that the media should recognize that an American auto manufacturer has finally taken back this coveted title (without having to limit it to electric vehicles). Japan held it for many years. This is a big deal for American innovation and leadership.

The two companies couldn't be more different. Why would Tesla stop production of the best-selling electric truck in the world when the world is building out EV infrastructure and moving towards electrification each and every year in greater numbers? Elon and the teams he assembles are no stranger to adversity, they have a long track record of succeeding at much more difficult tasks than this. Time is the friend of innovation and the enemy of moats.

 

[HaulingAss]

People don't want to stick out and the cyber truck does stick out.

The last two reasons may cause me to sell the model Y replace it with a Lexus which has not changed in the last ten years at least. May be the only way I can get the CT.

Cybertruck is one word. And both the Model Y and the Cybertruck are capitalized, like you saw fit to do with your Lexus.

But to my real point, I don't like to stand out in a crown either, because I'm a pretty low-key kind of guy who likes to blend in and do my own thing. But when I compare the Cybertruck to my F-150, the best-selling truck in the world, well, there is no comparison. And that's even true if I compare it to the electric version of the F-150.

There is no way I would buy and drive a vehicle so inferior simply to blend in. I'm not saying that some people don't have a low enough confidence level that they let others chose what they purchase and drive, simply that most people are not willing to do that, particularly when the value proposition comparison is so stark. People are just slow to learn how stark the value proposition comparison really is. But they are gradually learning.

We are still in the early days of the Cybertruck. If you have one already, count yourself fortunate!

 

[WILLK]

It’s a meaningless clickbait statistic. Sales are mostly down across all automakers with the exception of a few models across brands and fleet sales. I imagine your local carmax is looking pretty bloated right now. There was a dumb rush to buy cars during the tariff scare - but that has subsided from what I read.

On top, Average new auto loan rate is pushing 7%, and closer to 12% for a used vehicle. On above average credit. Unless automakers are offering heavily incentivized rates at absurd time intervals - shit ain’t movin.

And you don’t need a PhD from a local community college to figure this out.

I wonder if all the publicity about how the CT was over $100,000 (since they kept the FS going so long) has continued to hurt sales. Tesla needs to advertise the CT. Show the AWD price and the new RWD price. Show the CT in action. Many people don't even realize it is a truck. It does so many things well. It maneuvers easy. You can off road in it. It is fun to drive. We owners know this. The public does not.

 

[WILLK]

Cybertruck is one word. And both the Model Y and the Cybertruck are capitalized, like you saw fit to do with your Lexus.

But to my real point, I don't like to stand out in a crown either, because I'm a pretty low-key kind of guy who likes to blend in and do my own thing. But when I compare the Cybertruck to my F-150, the best-selling truck in the world, well, there is no comparison. And that's even true if I compare it to the electric version of the F-150.

There is no way I would buy and drive a vehicle so inferior simply to blend in. I'm not saying that some people don't have a low enough confidence level that they let others chose what they purchase and drive, simply that most people are not willing to do that, particularly when the value proposition comparison is so stark. People are just slow to learn how stark the value proposition comparison really is. But they are gradually learning.

We are still in the early days of the Cybertruck. If you have one already, count yourself fortunate!

I had a Ford Lightning Lariat previous so I can attest to what you said. The Lightning is really a comfortable vehicle. It is not so much fun driving around parking lots or off road. It is boring compared to a CT.

 

[CyberRout66]

Tesla needs to improve their exposure to the general public. Most people have no idea Tesla is a tech company. Most people have no idea what the cyber truck does.

Had this convo the other day with a patient, an educated man;

“So your trip went well? You took the cybertruck”

“Ya, truck drove itself, it was actually fairly relaxing”

“Where did you put all your stuff? Where does it all fit?”

“???…?”
“What do you mean?

“…where does all your gear, dogs, etc go?”

“In the bed, there’s a 6ft bed in the truck…”

“Really!? How? You mean it all fits there?

“Yes… it’s a truck….”

There are too many general convos like this.
And then you have to correct the FUDsters

I have the EXACT same conversations. Then, when someone asks me whether or not they should buy Tesla stock, I say "Tesla hasn't even seen the need yet to advertise". If Tesla ever got desperate, the advertisements would come out - they aren't close to be desperate.

 

[Gigahorse]

I wonder if all the publicity about how the CT was over $100,000 (since they kept the FS going so long) has continued to hurt sales. Tesla needs to advertise the CT. Show the AWD price and the new RWD price. Show the CT in action. Many people don't even realize it is a truck. It does so many things well. It maneuvers easy. You can off road in it. It is fun to drive. We owners know this. The public does not.

Valid point, I think the Foundation overall (even though I own one) was a bad idea.
Gives the general public the impression that the CTs are all $120k

With the tax credit going away Tesla needs to step up and get some trucks sold.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

And y

Q2 delivery numbers were out for Rivian today, 10,661. Recently around 70% of Rivians sold are R1S, so it's probably fair to estimate 3k-4k R1Ts and 7k-ish R1S sold. I am pretty sure that would make the R1S the most in demand luxury EV.

And yet Rivian loses actual cash on every vehicle they sell, with a negative gross margin on every vehicle they have ever sold. Tesla, while it did have numerous quarterly and annual losses, has never sold a single vehicle at a gross margin loss, and still has record margins despite price cuts. It is in a position to scale to demand and has no risk of failure as a company, even with smaller volumes. Rivian, on the other hand, has no path to survival other than a massive bailout or outright sale. Even then, a purchaser would have to eliminate the premium models that cost $125k to make but sell in limited quantities for $75k. Damn, I’m starting to sound like a TSLA fanboi.

 

[gillfoto]

These low volume vehicles are high volume platforms. The Hyundai/Kia eGMP platform, for example, is running 60,000 units a quarter. The TNGA-L underpins teh Lexus LC, Toyota Crown, and the LS. The eTNGA on the RZ is also the vehicle platform for the BZ, CHR, and Subaru. The Volvo EX30 shares its platform with Geely's Zeekr X , Smart 1 & 3 and the Lynk Z20.

The challenge for the Cybertruck is that it currently is a single-use, low volume platform. If Tesla can come out with a few additional models (e.g. delivery van, Full-sized SUV) built on the same platform, it will have a much better chance of surviving.

Also they could change body panels to plastic like in CyberCab, creating less fuss maintaining current Cybertruck and offering multiple colors, then I might trade in my FS24. Time well tell.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Friends, Tesla designed and built the Cybertruck because they wanted to, not because they had to.

“The general public is blissfully unaware of the utter behemoth that Tesla is about to become. Cybertruck sales are not even a blip on the radar. In fact, I have always seen this truck as a roaming billboard for what is coming next. A living technology demo to display the amazing things to come.

Stop reading clickbait headlines and taking them for face value; they are just delaying and denying the inevitable. Tesla is building an entire ecosystem along with SpaceX and TBC that the majority….and when I try to explain it, they immediately scoff at me).

Because obvious fanboi oblivion is laughable. When people around you are dying it’s time to stop drinking the Kool-Aid. I installed multiple Tesla products this week, have two new Teslas, have two Starlinks, was one of the first TSLA shareholders and bought my first MS in 2012, but I still live in realville. None of what you repeat from dear leader’s playbook is remotely feasible.

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