My current feelings about the $TSLA Stock Situation:

[DJAlan2000]

I bought in when it was $155 a share a few years back... Then got more, got more until my CB was/is up to $170 now... UNFORTUNATELY, I SOLD most of it (125 shares) last May when it was at $360... Should have waited until Dec. when it was almost at $500... Oh well... I still have 25 shares and will hold them for a while...
I also have another 20 in an IRA (from $155!!)...
I just hate it when the price goes way up right AFTER I sell some stocks (usually to buy others)...

But I am mostly 'retired' now, so I'm more into higher dividend paying stocks like FSCO (15.6%), SPMC (26.46!!!), ORC (20.65%) and ALIT (27.86%)...

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[jahansolu]

At this point it'll dip to $200.

 

[DJAlan2000]

At this point it'll dip to $200.

VERY Doubtful that it will dip THAT low... MAYBE it might go as low as $300, but I doubt that even...

Analysts have the 'average' price (1 yr out) at $421.27 right now and 'high' of $600... Although the 'Low' is at $119, it's mostly due to just 2 analysts... Tesla haters... Both of whom have been saying for years now that the stock is only worth $19 & $25 respective... So, when you have 2 'lowballers' that are valuing stocks 10 times less then they should be, it will drag the 'low' number way down... Take them off the list and the 'real' low becomes $238.12... Currently it's 'down' to $355.28 today...

 

[WoodChuckDad]

Hi Folks,
Anyone else feeling like this?
$TSLA stock got me feeling like:

Hi Folks,
Anyone else feeling like this?
$TSLA stock got me feeling like:

I hope it goes to $100. I’m selling my winners and stacking cash

 

[HaulingAss]

VERY Doubtful that it will dip THAT low... MAYBE it might go as low as $300, but I doubt that even...

Analysts have the 'average' price (1 yr out) at $421.27 right now and 'high' of $600... Although the 'Low' is at $119, it's mostly due to just 2 analysts... Tesla haters... Both of whom have been saying for years now that the stock is only worth $19 & $25 respective... So, when you have 2 'lowballers' that are valuing stocks 10 times less then they should be, it will drag the 'low' number way down... Take them off the list and the 'real' low becomes $238.12... Currently it's 'down' to $355.28 today...

As a long-time experienced investor, I recommend not wasting time looking at what Wall Street analysts say about ANY stock. They are always behind the curve. On average you would become wealthier doing the opposite of what most analysts say.

 

[HaulingAss]

historically selling TSLA at ATH, is a shrewd bet, that pays off in share multiplication. But it’s a game of musical chairs, and has big tax implications.

This is just plain wrong. A stock makes many new ATH's during a bull run, especially a stock like TSLA. Selling at one of those all time highs is a terrible move if it's early in the bull run. And you never know if the bull run is just beginning, or just ending, until after it has ended. Most new ATH's are a terrible place to sell, even if you have already doubled or tripled your oletsriginal investment. It will many small corrections on the way to each new ATH (that feel like big corrections in the moment).

For 5 years TSLA has been relatively flat, that sets it up, at some point in the next year or two, for a new bull run. It could start next week or next month, no one knows because it depends upon investor sentiment. This is not a time to be selling, it's a time to building a big position (if you don't already have a big position) so you can ride the next bull wave. Sure, it might go down to $200 briefly, but it could just as likely make new all-time highs and keep going (without ever hitting $200). Always look at the big picture, not the little moves.

The good places to sell are places near a forward-looking multi-year (4-5 year) ATH, but these places cannot be identified in advance. No one knows where they are until after the time has passed. And note that I'm not using the term ATH in it's strictest sense, I'm using it in a general sense looking only at big moves. For example, let's say you sell a stock at $300 after a big run that tops out at $350 (either before or after you sold). And then for the next 4-5 years it never goes above $400, it's relatively flat even though it goes marginally above your selling price after four or five years. You have thus captured the bulk of the rise. But if you had purchased at $35 and sold after it tripled to $105, you have done terrible. If you sell early in a bull run (simply because you are happy with your gains), you will never perform exceptionally well (even if your profits on that particular trade are excellent). Never sell early when investing for the long term (and always invest for the long-term). That's where the wealth creation is at. It's not about stoking your ego by jumping in and out of the market and saying "Look at my brilliance, I just made $85,00 in two months or two years". That's not wealth creation, it's short-sightedness. It's what happens when you are nervous about the money you have in the market.

Investors pay too much attention to the price of the stock (times the number of shares they hold). They become attached to the dollar figure. In order to turn the market into a money generating machine for yourself you need to divorce your mental state from the current price (whether high or low) and look at the forest, not the trees.

A safer bet, in smaller doses is short term out of the money covered calls, when Tesla starts these slides. It’ll give you weekly income to buy more shares, while everyone is selling. You need to own 100 shares, or groups of 100 shares to play. I look at it as a no money out of pocket investment strategy, or a DIY dividend. This is not investment advice. You can lose money. It requires a lot of study, and consideration, to not lose money in options. But if you figure out the system, it’s a fun way to grow.

I've seen a lot of people advocate for this but it's a short-sighted strategy if your goal is build real wealth. It's the exact trap of needing positive affirmation that you are making immediate money that you should be guarding against. Because it trades off big potential upside for small gains. IMO, a losing strategy (even though you can make a lot of money if you do it during the right periods and not the wrong periods). The problem is no one knows when the time is right, and when it's wrong. Real wealth is made by capturing the big moves, not trading that opportunity away for short-term small gains. We could be 1-2 years away from another big move but I'm not going to trade that opportunity away because a huge move could start this week and never look back. You have to be long and strong to capture the bulk of the big moves, some people constantly shoot themselves in the foot by missing the big moves by selling far too early (which is what selling covered calls tends to force you to do eventually).

Many people will disagree with the above, but that's only because they have a short-term time horizon and value immediate income above real long-term wealth creation. Humanity is in a period where the convergence of multiple technologies is poised to create huge value over the next 20-50 years. We have never seen a technological convergence this massive before. We are exiting the mechanical age in which mechanical machines and fossil fuels created massive wealth, and entering the age of instant information, the digital age, powered by the sun. It got off to a slow start going back to the 1960's, 70's, 80's and 90's. Moore's law needed to play out. Computing has become massively cheaper and the price of compute continues to decline. Starlink is bringing high speed Internet to places that have never seen it, at prices lower than ever. Knowledge is power. New markets will be created, healthcare will become more efficient and costs will plummet, same with transportation, food production, entertainment and energy, AI will drive new ways of doing things, of providing people with what they need and want. The instant information, boosted by AI, will propel value creation like humanity has never seen before. The applications are difficult to even imagine now but it will make the industrial age look antiquated and quaint.

The opportunity for investors is massive. Most investors will have small successes here and there, jumping in and out, afraid to lose money in the short-term. Long-term investors who avoid selling off their biggest winners will see their wealth compound in unbelievable ways. This will be a small minority of investors because investors are told to balance their portfolio on an annual basis to smooth things out and reduce volatility of their "number". This means 100% that they will leave most of the compound growth on the table. Selling off most of your biggest winners each year guarantees your returns will be mediocre, although your "number" will be less volatile. Investors are told to prioritize a lack of volatility but here's why that' s the wrong thing to do. It nerfs your growth. If your number grows to a very big number, you are doing great even when your "number" is at it's smallest. Volatility only matters if you sell. People investing for retirement have a long time horizon and don't need to sell in the near-term. Volatility doesn't matter, poor long-term performance is what you need to avoid. This is the root of why most investment advice is simply wrong. It values stability over a higher rate of compounding growth.

The real risk is being so diversified that you have a lot of exposure to companies who will be disrupted by the new paradigm, by the age of technology. Some old school businesses will be helped by the new paradigm, they will become leaner and more efficient, others will go "poof" and be gone. You want to be invested in the ones doing the disrupting, not those being disrupted. Avoid owning those who will be disrupted, it has a devastating effect on your compound growth over time.

 

[Trbizwiz]

This is just plain wrong. A stock makes many new ATH's during a bull run, especially a stock like TSLA. Selling at one of those all time highs is a terrible move if it's early in the bull run. And you never know if the bull run is just beginning, or just ending, until after it has ended. Most new ATH's are a terrible place to sell, even if you have already doubled or tripled your oletsriginal investment. It will many small corrections on the way to each new ATH (that feel like big corrections in the moment).

For 5 years TSLA has been relatively flat, that sets it up, at some point in the next year or two, for a new b
not about stoking your ego by jumping in and out of the market and saying "Look at my brilliance, I just made $85,00 in two months or two years". That's not wealth creation, it's short-sightedness. It's what happens when you are nervous about the money you have in the market.

Investors pay too much attention to the price of the stock (times the number of shares they hold). They become attached to the dollar figure. In order to turn the market into a money generating machine for yourself you need to divorce your mental state from the current price (whether high or low) and look at the forest, not the trees.



I've seen a lot of people advocate for this but it's a short-sighted strategy if your goal is build real wealth. It's the exact trap of needing positive affirmation that you are making immediate money that you should be guarding against. Because it trades off big potential upside for small gains. IM
and costs will plummet, same with transportation, food production, entertainment and energy, AI will drive new ways of doing things, of providing people with what they need and want. The instant information, boosted by AI, will propel value creation like humanity has never seen before. The applications are difficult to even imagine now but it will make the industrial age look antiquated and quaint.

The opportunity for investors is massive. Most investors will have small successes here and there, jumping in and out, afraid to lose money in the short-term. Long-term investors who avoid selling off their biggest winners will see their wealth compound in unbelievable ways. This will be a small minority of investors because investors are told to balance their portfolio on an annual basis to smooth things out and reduce volatility of their "number". This means 100% that they will leave

I think, we think, nearly the exact same way. I said it with fewer words, which may have lead to a misunderstanding. I am opposed to selling at ATH, until my thesis is proven out, and probably even at that point, if my secondary plan works as planned. I agree with your position on holding.

My point about options, is very short term. I take the temperature of the market on Friday mornings, and then execute a mostly safe trade, that expires that afternoon at 4:30. I am extremely cautious about this trade, because priority 1 is not selling the shares. Priority two is collecting a tiny bit of premium, which goes directly back in to buying shares, sometimes same day, but only on red days.

According to AI, TSLA closed red 33% of the time between 2020 and present. If you deployed capital only on red days, versus deploying capital only on green days, you would have 100% more net profit today. The fallacy in this thinking, is that a red day, can still be higher than a green day, depending on the number of green days involved. But it takes timing the market to get the best deal. Every red day, represents a better deal than the previous day. So in terms of DCA, buying red equals a 100% win rate, and over time, that yields higher profits, unless you have a crystal ball and can buy at the perfect time.

I might consider selling a small percentage of my shares when the share price hits $10K or so, as a diversification tactic. I could probably, at that point put 20% in the Q's and have fairly stable retirement income for life, while still building generational wealth with the remaining 80%. It'll take perfect execution by Tesla to get there. I have a HW4 car, and I think it is possible, mostly based on the experience of my non tech, non Tesla friends and family. When they experience how good 14.2 is, they immediately toss away the narrative, and want a Tesla for themselves, especially those with any sort of impairment. They get the value right away.

 

[swampcrawler]

It's not about timing the market.

It's about time in the market.

Bought my 1st model S in 2014. Two weeks later I said, this is a game changer and bought in.

When I finally ride in another car that is better than or more advanced than what Tesla was selling 5 years ago, it might be time to sell.

For now, I let my truck drive me around and I let me Tesla stock position ride.

 

[Trbizwiz]

It's not about timing the market.

It's about time in the market.

Bought my 1st model S in 2014. Two weeks later I said, this is a game changer and bought in.

When I finally ride in another car that is better than or more advanced than what Tesla was selling 5 years ago, it might be time to sell.

For now, I let my truck drive me around and I let me Tesla stock position ride.

I did not mean to imply anyone was timing the market, I was simply saying that buying on red days gets you a better overall average, over time, buy in price, than trying to time the market for the best value. So I buy on red, and google AI indicates that yields a better return. But that is all based on past results. At some point in the likely near future, TSLA will break all expectations, so past results wont predict what is best to do. Fortunately, I am close to my overall position goal.

 

[swampcrawler]

I did not mean to imply anyone was timing the market, I was simply saying that buying on red days gets you a better overall average, over time, buy in price, than trying to time the market for the best value. So I buy on red, and google AI indicates that yields a better return. But that is all based on past results. At some point in the likely near future, TSLA will break all expectations, so past results wont predict what is best to do. Fortunately, I am close to my overall position goal.

I wasn't referring to you. I was just saying in general. Getting in and out and in and out, usually means you're getting screwed...

Just get in and enjoy the ride.

Why is it that stocks are the only thing nobody wants to buy when they go on sale?

 

[Trbizwiz]

I wasn't referring to you. I was just saying in general. Getting in and out and in and out, usually means you're getting screwed...

Just get in and enjoy the ride.

Why is it that stocks are the only thing nobody wants to buy when they go on sale?

No idea! When my children (that all invest their earned, and gifted money) get concerned about stock drops, I remind them, everyone loves Black Friday sales, that is why we save dry powder all year. We save for holiday shopping, and we save for investment shopping. Life doesn't just happen, you choose by planning, or you choose by failing to plan.

 

[hemiarch]

Certainly not an expert but FSD approval in the Netherlands is in my opinion an enormous piece of news that somehow became a footnote on all the investment advice professionals pages of drivel.
Made me buy more stock. I know that much.
Opens the gates to do what Tesla does and has demonstrated they can do but in Europe. So while everyone sits in the corner and sulks about minor changes in the US market, which is why the stock price is currently depressed, a whole new market just opened.
Conventional investment wisdom is anything but that. If those pieces of advice made people rich there would be many many more rich people. Maybe even as rich as Cramer.

 

[EricGregori]

The $450 price was for robotaxi.
I use FSD for every drive, I know it works, but investors see doubt.
Until we see more robotaxi's without safety drivers, the stock will stay between $250 and $350.
Another potential trigger would be the release of a $25K car (Robotaxi with steering wheel).

I do not see the stock over $500 until we see Optimus building cars or all robotaxi's have no safety driver.

 

[TruckDaddy]

It will go crazy when people catch on to the fact that robotaxis can be produced around $16k, and produce $120k annual revenue.
Factory robots produced at $12k, and produce $130k in labor savings running 22 hours per day.

 

[Cayden Thompson]

It will go crazy when people catch on to the fact that robotaxis can be produced around $16k, and produce $120k annual revenue.
Factory robots produced at $12k, and produce $130k in labor savings running 22 hours per day.

Wake me up when that happens.

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