CT Delivery Freeze nationwide due to necessary software update

[YDR37]

It should be understood that a production capacity of 125,000 is more of a theoretical maximum. It assumes no downtime for the production line for maintenance, no breakdowns, no supply chain hiccups, no anything. Tesla has often said that the production capacity is never realized, even when they want to make as many as possible. That said, since the 125,000 is accompanied by a ">" sign, it might be possible to hit close to 125,000 if everything went perfect for an entire year (and demand was sufficient to move them all). But 250,000 is literally impossible without an expensive new production line.

The vehicle production capacities that Tesla lists in its earnings reports look like this:

Add those numbers up (ignoring the ">" signs). You will get a global production capacity of 2,350,000 vehicles per year. Yet the ">" signs obviously imply that the real production capacity is higher. How much higher? Well, consider a Tesla statement in the 1Q 2025 shareholder deck (which also includes the table shown above):

Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup ... This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 60% growth over 2024 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.

So according to Tesla, ">2,350,000" really means "close to three million", and that's without "investing in new manufacturing lines." The math only works if you boost all of the ">" numbers by about 25%. And in that case, the true Cybertruck production capacity would be more than 150,000 per year.

OK, that's still less than 250,000 per year. But it does suggest that 125,000 per year is not a "theoretical maximum".

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[AverageJoe]

Completely unrelated, I think. My 2022 MYP just had a service required alert pop up pushed by tesla remotely. It's UI_a006 anyone else having this issue? The alert is vague could be hv battery issues, battery coolant or need software. I can't clear the alert and the app gave me no info.

 

[YDR37]

So according to Tesla, ">2,350,000" really means "close to three million", and that's without "investing in new manufacturing lines." The math only works if you boost all of the ">" numbers by about 25%. And in that case, the true Cybertruck production capacity would be more than 150,000 per year.

OK, that's still less than 250,000 per year. But it does suggest that 125,000 per year is not a "theoretical maximum".

We can also look at it another way. Add up the numbers in Tesla's capacity table for the US factories (California and Texas) only. You will get US production capacity of >1,025,000 vehicles per year.

Does that make sense? Well, Cox estimated 633,762 Tesla sales in the US in 2024. All of those vehicles were made in the US. But the US factories also made vehicles for export in 2024, primarily to Canada, but also S/X for Europe and Asia. So a reasonable estimate of total US production in 2024 would include another 10% for export, or around 700,000 vehicles total. OK, that's well within the table's stated capacity of >1,025,000 vehicles per year.

But here's where it gets interesting. In March 2025, Elon pledged to double US production:



This implies that in March 2025, Tesla was prepared to produce around 1,400,000 vehicles per year in the US (twice the 700,000 produced in 2024). So according to Elon, ">1,025,000" really means around 1,400,000. The math only works if you boost the ">" numbers in the table by about 40%, which would put the true Cybertruck production capacity at around 175,000 per year.

 

[HaulingAss]

Add those numbers up (ignoring the ">" signs). You will get a global production capacity of 2,350,000 vehicles per year. Yet the ">" signs obviously imply that the real production capacity is higher. How much higher? Well, consider a Tesla statement in the 1Q 2025 shareholder deck (which also includes the table shown above):


So according to Tesla, ">2,350,000" really means "close to three million", and that's without "investing in new manufacturing lines." The math only works if you boost all of the ">" numbers by about 25%. And in that case, the true Cybertruck production capacity would be more than 150,000 per year.

OK, that's still less than 250,000 per year. But it does suggest that 125,000 per year is not a "theoretical maximum".

I already addressed the ">" sign as a small unknown. There is no exact capacity of any given line and it depends upon the throughput speeds, something the next generation vehicles are designed to increase. Faster throughput of next-generation models on the "same lines" used for existing vehicles does not imply the lines won't have to be upgraded to accommodate next generation vehicles. Of course they would. What it does mean is that Tesla wouldn't have to build expensive new factories to accommodate the next generation vehicles. That's how they get to "close to three million" on existing lines.

Yes, it's conceivable that Tesla could increase the 125,000+ production capacity of the exiting Cybertruck line somewhat with process improvements, but I don't think it's plausible they could increase it to 250,000. And remember, "production capacity" is a theoretical number that does not equal the number that could actually be built in a year, something Tesla reminds us of every single quarterly release.

I don't know why you are defending the idea that Tesla could actually produce 250,000 Cybertrucks on the existing line, in a single year, it's not an idea that's grounded in reality. That would require an additional production line.

 

[HaulingAss]

This implies that in March 2025, Tesla was prepared to produce around 1,400,000 vehicles per year in the US (twice the 700,000 produced in 2024). So according to Elon, ">1,025,000" really means around 1,400,000. The math only works if you boost the ">" numbers in the table by about 40%, which would put the true Cybertruck production capacity at around 175,000 per year.

Incorrect. the doubling of production is due to the production efficiencies unleashed by the next generation vehicles that are specifically designed to be built more quickly. Applying that to an existing vehicle (like the Cybertruck) is just unrealistic and ridiculous.

Let's try to stay grounded in logical thinking and avoid taking statements out of any reasonable context.

 

[YDR37]

I don't know why you are defending the idea that Tesla could actually produce 250,000 Cybertrucks on the existing line, in a single year, it's not an idea that's grounded in reality. That would require an additional production line.

But I'm not defending that idea. On the contrary, I explicitly acknowledged that 250,000 per year was too high.

OK, that's still less than 250,000 per year.

I'm defending the idea that Tesla's stated ">125,000" Cybertrucks per year probably means about "150,000-175,000".

 

[HaulingAss]

I'm defending the idea that Tesla's stated ">125,000" Cybertrucks per year probably means about "150,000-175,000".

It's possible, but most of the reasons you used to get there don't apply to Cybertruck production.

The most straightforward analysis of the public information we have is that actual Cybertruck production capacity, without line upgrades, is pretty close to 125,000, especially when talking about how many they could reasonably produce in a year (accounting for normal downtime). It could be difficult to hit 150,000/year unless nothing went wrong the entire year. And that assumes they had demand for >150,000/year and were laser focused on maximizing production.

 

[YDR37]

Incorrect. the doubling of production is due to the production efficiencies unleashed by the next generation vehicles that are specifically designed to be built more quickly. Applying that to an existing vehicle (like the Cybertruck) is just unrealistic and ridiculous.

Let's try to stay grounded in logical thinking and avoid taking statements out of any reasonable context.

The proposed doubling of US production may be "unrealistic and ridiculous" whether we apply it to new or existing vehicle lines.

In March 2025, Elon "committed" to doubling US vehicle production in two years. That was 14 months ago. So if we take Elon's statement in "reasonable context", he has 10 months to make good on that commitment.

But US vehicle production since March 2025 has not trended upward. On the contrary, US sales fell in 2025, Canada is now supplied by the Shanghai plant due to tariffs, and the S/X were discontinued.

Maybe Cybercab, Semi, and Roadster sales (which are currently zero) will soar over the next 10 months, boosting Tesla's numbers by hundreds of thousands, and allowing US production to double relative to 2024. But as you say, "let's try to stay grounded in logical thinking."

 

[YDR37]

The most straightforward analysis of the public information we have is that actual Cybertruck production capacity, without line upgrades, is pretty close to 125,000

By your logic, and following Tesla's capacity table:

- Cybertruck production capacity is pretty close to 125,000.
- 3/Y production capacity is pretty close to 2,125,000.
- S/X production capacity is pretty close to 100,000.
- Total production capacity is therefore pretty close to 2,350,000.

I think the S/X number is valid, because (1) Tesla actually did produce a maximum of about 100,000 S/X per year in the past, and (2) there is no ">" in the capacity table.

But the other numbers are too low. Here is another piece of public information: Tesla's total production capacity in early 2025, on existing lines, was "close to three million":

"Close to three million" is not the same as "pretty close to 2,350,000". So unfortunately, the "most straightforward analysis" doesn't seem to work.

 

[Mikec3399]

Just saw this today. My CT does not apply, but maybe they are scrambling at the SC’s to manage the hard recall.

BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published 02:52 PM EDT, May 8, 2026
Tesla is recalling 173 Cybertrucks because cracking in the rotor could cause the wheel stud to separate from the wheel hub, increasing the risk of a crash and injury.

The recall includes model year 2024-2026 Cybertrucks with 18-inch steel wheels. In its report, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said that rough roads and cornering may strain the stud hole in the wheel rotor causing cracks to form and with continued driving the wheel stud could eventually separate from the wheel hub.

Wheel stud separation may affect vehicle controllability, increasing the risk of a collision.

On affected vehicles, Tesla will replace the front and rear brake rotors, hubs, and lug nuts with more durable ones at no cost to vehicle owners.

The manufacturer's recall number is SB-26-33-003

this recall effects approx 173 rear Wheel drive cybertrucks ,
I'm to poor to buy cheap!

 

[jimbaum]

The vehicle production capacities that Tesla lists in its earnings reports look like this:

Add those numbers up (ignoring the ">" signs). You will get a global production capacity of 2,350,000 vehicles per year. Yet the ">" signs obviously imply that the real production capacity is higher. How much higher? Well, consider a Tesla statement in the 1Q 2025 shareholder deck (which also includes the table shown above):


So according to Tesla, ">2,350,000" really means "close to three million", and that's without "investing in new manufacturing lines." The math only works if you boost all of the ">" numbers by about 25%. And in that case, the true Cybertruck production capacity would be more than 150,000 per year.

OK, that's still less than 250,000 per year. But it does suggest that 125,000 per year is not a "theoretical maximum".

I'm just glad they chose to axe the Model S/X over the CT, presumably due to the Optimus robots.

How would Cybercab production affect the Texas lines of Y and CT?

 

[Sephiroth]

Well, that sounds related to what the tech said to me today. Must be nation wide. I am still holding on to the chance that my new delivery appointment will be successful tomorrow (at noon). I’m really bummed that this happened. I was looking forward to driving it this weekend. I also have a tint appointment on Tuesday that I hope I don’t have to reschedule. Fingers crossed…..

Fingers crossed indeed.

Im scheduled to pick up my PAWD in 4 hours.

 

[YDR37]

I'm just glad they chose to axe the Model S/X over the CT, presumably due to the Optimus robots.

How would Cybercab production affect the Texas lines of Y and CT?

It's not just about Cybercab production. It's true that the forthcoming Optimus 3 robots will be built at the Fremont Plant in California. But Tesla is already planning another generation of Optimus 4 robots, which will be built at the Austin Plant in Texas -- at much larger scale.

And it's also true that S/X production in Fremont was sacrificed to accomodate Optimus 3. So will the new Cybercab and Optimus 4 production in Austin affect the existing Y and CT lines?

Probably not, because the Austin facility is way bigger than Fremont. The Fremont faciity is only 440 acres; it is completely built out and hemmed in by other development and freeways. But in Austin, Tesla has 2,100 acres with plenty of room to grow. They don't have to sacrifice anything for Optimus 4; they are currently building a brand new factory on their land instead:

You might ask: "if Tesla has all this capacity in Austin, why sacrifice the S/X to build Optimus 3 in Fremont?" The answer is that Optimus is primarily being developed at Tesla Engineering HQ in Palo Alto, California, only about 20 miles from the Fremont factory. Tesla's administrative HQ is in Austin, but most Tesla engineers are still in the Bay Area.

At this point, Tesla wants to keep the Optimus production team close to the Optimus design team. However, this should not be necessary as Optimus matures.

 

[DMSTR]

Fingers crossed indeed.

Im scheduled to pick up my PAWD in 4 hours.

Were you able to take delivery today?

 

[Sephiroth]

Yup! Sorry I was too busy setting it up and driving.
Had to wait an hour for them to prep it and then another hour to inspect and report a couple things, started driving and it was raining pretty bad, but she’s home!

7 other people doing pickups at that time, all Model Ys, and 3 of them seemed more excited to check out the truck in the middle of their own deliveries lol.

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