Battery Replacement

[CyberMoose]

Why don't you get out now and avoid any potential rush

I was thinking the same thing. I don't see any manufacturer putting a 15 year warranty on a battery

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[SpaceYooper]

Why don't you get out now and avoid any potential rush

I'm hopeful Tesla overdelivers.

Why don't you get out now and avoid any potential rush

Like I said...I'm hopeful Tesla over delivers.

 

[SpaceYooper]

I was thinking the same thing. I don't see any manufacturer putting a 15 year warranty on a battery

Why not? Kia has a 10 year. You think Tesla is going to build a million mile battery and put an 8 year warranty on it?

 

[CyberMoose]

Why not? You think they are going to build a million mile battery and put an 8 year warranty on it?

Absolutely. If they release a million mile battery, the first million mile battery would probably be with ideal driving conditions only. Also a million mile battery isn't going to be a million miles with 100, 90, 80, or even 70% retention.

The 8 year warranty would also include people who work their truck harder than the average person.

I know some people think that if they buy something with an advertised feature, that they should be able to treat that product in whatever way they want within the literal boundaries of what it's intended to do with it matching whatever it's advertised as. I find that thought process to be pretty idiotic.

Even if Tesla wanted to release a million mile battery with a million mile warranty, with a clause that it will only last that long under ideal driving and charging habits, and they could even specify what those are, that would cause so many problems. Tesla could even set parameters in the app or the car to tell people whether they've voided their warranty for doing something too many times. There would be mass complaints and a bunch of angry customers when they are excluded.

Short warranties protect companies from unreasonable customers who try to get away with too much. If I asked the manufacturer of my car how long the engine should last and they say 300,000 miles at least, that doesn't mean I get a 300,000 mile warranty. A warranty is give for long enough for someone to determine if there is a manufacturer fault with the product before it's your responsibility to fix it.

The nice thing about a warranty is we can look at the trend of something, especially for a Tesla battery because we can actually pull up the information in the car.

If Tesla did actually release a million mile battery, they would probably say that it's with 50% battery retention or a number around there. Warranties also usually assume around 12,000 miles per year so it would probably be something like 120,000 miles or 10 years with 93% battery retention. With a continuous trend, you would reach one million miles with approximately 50% battery retention after any time up to 83 years. But no company is going to give a million mile warranty, it would be stupid for any company to do a warranty that would last anywhere near that long.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Absolutely. If they release a million mile battery, the first million mile battery would probably be with ideal driving conditions only. Also a million mile battery isn't going to be a million miles with 100, 90, 80, or even 70% retention.

I'm not asking or saying a million mile battery will have 70% - 100% retention of whatever it's driving range is as it starts approaching that million lifetime miles. I'm saying what you said here...

If Tesla did actually release a million mile battery, they would probably say that it's with 50% battery retention or a number around there. Warranties also usually assume around 12,000 miles per year so it would probably be something like 120,000 miles or 10 years with 93% battery retention. With a continuous trend, you would reach one million miles with approximately 50% battery retention after any time up to 83 years.

I agree with that completely...except I'm less optimistic about 50% at a million miles (more at that later) That's far better then the current warranty.
If I can count on 90% of 500 miles after 10 years, that's 450 miles. I'd think about it.
If the EPA range is 550, now we're up to 495 miles of range after 10 years. I'm buying!
If I'm losing 10% after the first 10 years (that means 5% every 5 years; though I'm sure the attrition rate slows, but let's keep it simple) that means it's within reason that they could offer an 85% warranty at 15 years. That's better then I asked for in my statement...and I didn't even start at your stated 93%.

Warranties help sell products, because companies know most of the time, the consumer doesn't cash in on the warranty. (I feel obligated at this point to include a link to a Tommy Boy reference, I know this reference doesn't help my argument, just enjoy the 2 minutes and provide me a great warranty so I can feel good and I'm buying.

But no company is going to give a million mile warranty, it would be stupid for any company to do a warranty that would last anywhere near that long.

I'm not asking for that. It was not my intent to say a million mile battery should be warrantied to 80% of it's range when approaching a million lifetime miles. By my own example, I asked for a battery warranty of 80% at 250k and 15 years. Tesla currently uses 8 yrs 150k miles on their largest vehicles (S and X). So they are saying 18750 miles/year. Extrapolate that out to 15 years and you get 281,250 miles. I rounded down to 250k. I would use simple math to take that all the way out to a million miles, meaning 20% degradation every 250k miles. So I would assume if the same battery was still in use at a million miles, the user would be getting about 20% of the original range.

If they make 80% at 15 years and 180k (using your 12k year statement)...I'm good with that. But by doing this they are cutting the annual mileage they already warranty on two of their vehicles. This seems like an odd thing to do if the new 4680 battery is the better product they say it is. (I'm not calling it the million mile battery, but it does seem like a substantial upgrade.)

 

[Tinker71]

It was a joke...hence the goof face after the sentence.



Yes, that 500 is extremely important to me. I've made several posts talking about why that is the case. I know the range will vary depending on how I drive and the road conditions and the weather, etc.

When the full specs are released...
1) If it's not at least EPA rated for 500 miles, I'm out.
2) If the CT battery warranty is the same as the current warranties (70%, 8 years and 100k or 150k miles) even 70% of 600 miles is only 420 miles of guaranteed range. I'm out.
3) If they change the warranty to 70%/15 years or 250k miles then we're moving the needle but not enough. I'm out.
4) I want the CT battery warranty to read 15 years or 250k miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 80% retention of battery capacity over the warranty period.
6) 80% of 500 miles, is still only 400 miles. I'm out.
7) 80% of 550 miles, is 440 miles. I'd think about it.
8) 80% of 600 miles, is 480 miles. I'm in!

Nobody said selling to trucks owners was easy. If we end up somewhere between where I said I'm out vs where I said I'm in. I'll have to think about it. I'm preparing myself for the letdown, but I'm hopeful Tesla overdelivers.

Bye

 

[John K]

A million mile battery is not based on distance travel but number of charge cycles.

How you treat the battery will extend or reduce the battery.

or, bad luck with battery breakdown.

Warranty’s are actuary calculations. All batteries do not automatically go to the min usage. The vast majority will be a range from the min max plus a buffer worked in as a safety for the majority of the mins to not cross the line.

Suggest to keep watch on Tesla’s range of cars. Trust will be earned or proven unrealiable.

One of the main reasons I am purchasing the CT is due to having trust in batteries and motors. I have less confidence in fit and finish but like the trend improvement impression.

Stainless Steel is also a huge, something shiny, that influences my heart over reason.

Your mileage may vary.

 

[CyberMoose]

If I can count on 90% of 500 miles after 10 years, that's 450 miles. I'd think about it.
If the EPA range is 550, now we're up to 495 miles of range after 10 years. I'm buying!
If I'm losing 10% after the first 10 years (that means 5% every 5 years; though I'm sure the attrition rate slows, but let's keep it simple) that means it's within reason that they could offer an 85% warranty at 15 years. That's better then I asked for in my statement...and I didn't even start at your stated 93%.

You are completely right here. The only issue is that I was using arbitrary numbers as an example and you are just saying what you want. Now no one is going to blame you for having that desire, we're just voicing our own opinions and reasoning behind why we don't think that's going to happen.

I'm not asking for that. It was not my intent to say a million mile battery should be warrantied to 80% of it's range when approaching a million lifetime miles. By my own example, I asked for a battery warranty of 80% at 250k and 15 years. Tesla currently uses 8 yrs 150k miles on their largest vehicles (S and X). So they are saying 18750 miles/year. Extrapolate that out to 15 years and you get 281,250 miles. I rounded down to 250k. I would use simple math to take that all the way out to a million miles, meaning 20% degradation every 250k miles. So I would assume if the same battery was still in use at a million miles, the user would be getting about 20% of the original range.

If they make 80% at 15 years and 180k (using your 12k year statement)...I'm good with that. But by doing this they are cutting the annual mileage they already warranty on two of their vehicles. This seems like an odd thing to do if the new 4680 battery is the better product they say it is. (I'm not calling it the million mile battery, but it does seem like a substantial upgrade.)

The biggest question I have and probably anyone else reading this is how are you taking the information that Tesla offers warranty of 8 years or 150k miles with at least 70% battery retention, then adding a possible 7 years and 100k miles to the warranty and on top of that, increasing the minimum battery retention by 10%.

It would already be a massive leap if Tesla came out this year and said that their batteries could go an extra 100k miles with the same battery retention, but you are asking for 10% more battery retention. I don't even remember Tesla saying anything about increased battery retention during battery day which would have been a major topic to bring up since that would be a huge factor towards increasing the life of their vehicles before the need of replacement parts.

I completely understand why you would want a battery with such high retentions, everyone would, and Tesla would love to provide that, but I don't think we are anywhere near hitting those numbers as a guaranteed figure for a warranty in the next few years.

I would love to be wrong on this, I really really would, I really hope I am. I wouldn't even doubt Tesla to come out with a higher retention rate. But 80% after 250,000 miles is like me running a half marathon and then all of a sudden running a full marathon the next week. There are so many steps between those two goals.


I will say, and this kind of goes with saying but i'm going to mention it anyway, warranties are for worst case scenarios. Companies are covering themselves with quite a lot of wiggle room so if there are differences between between vehicles, they aren't getting sued. If me and my friend both got Cybertrucks and after 8 years I had 85% retention and he had 80% retention, we're both within the correct range and there is no trouble for Tesla to take care of.

https://electrek.co/2020/06/12/tesla-data-battery-degradation-limited-mileage-packs-equal/

Here Tesla S/X are showen to have roughly around high 80% retention after 200,000 miles. I've seen a couple reports of Teslas going close to 500,000 miles before they are dipping below 80% retention. I've also read that the man with the most miles on the tesla which was 1,333,333km (828,000 miles) is on his third battery, probably because to do that much driving, he probably visits lots of superchargers which will degrade the battery.

Most reports of battery retention I see are very high, most reports I see of low battery retention is people looking at estimate range and not realizing that the car is adjusting for several factors.

However, even with so many people getting high retention rates on their vehicles. This doesn't mean Tesla will just increase the warranty. For one reason, using a supercharger every day doesn't void your warranty. If someone drives 100,000 miles and only charging with superchargers up to 100% charge, they will definitely see higher degradation than someone who charges at home, but if Tesla says 80% at some very high miles like 200,000-250,000. That person is still covered and will just cost the company money for them abusing their vehicle.

A warranty needs to cover everyone who is using their vehicle in any way that doesn't void the warranty. While some people might make it to 250,000 miles or even past that with around 80% or higher retention, the average person might not and the guy who doesn't have a level 2 charger at home and uses the supercharger 2-3 times a week definitely won't see that kind of retention.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Lots to unpackage here.

The biggest question I have and probably anyone else reading this is how are you taking the information that Tesla offers warranty of 8 years or 150k miles with at least 70% battery retention, then adding a possible 7 years and 100k miles to the warranty and on top of that, increasing the minimum battery retention by 10%.

I didn't say they would. Like you mentioned, "no one is going to blame you for having that desire". I caveated my statements with the words;

I'm preparing myself for the letdown, but I'm hopeful Tesla overdelivers.

I completely understand why you would want a battery with such high retentions, everyone would, and Tesla would love to provide that, but I don't think we are anywhere near hitting those numbers as a guaranteed figure for a warranty in the next few years.

Your own research pretty much shows they can hit those numbers now. Even if not by actuary standards. I know nothing about better retention was mentioned on battery day, but I don't think it's unreasonable to believe this new 4680 battery can out perform the old battery retention. So if the old batteries can and the new batteries are better, then maybe?

If someone drives 100,000 miles and only charging with superchargers up to 100% charge, they will definitely see higher degradation than someone who charges at home, but if Tesla says 80% at some very high miles like 200,000-250,000. That person is still covered and will just cost the company money for them abusing their vehicle.

A warranty needs to cover everyone who is using their vehicle in any way that doesn't void the warranty. While some people might make it to 250,000 miles or even past that with around 80% or higher retention, the average person might not and the guy who doesn't have a level 2 charger at home and uses the supercharger 2-3 times a week definitely won't see that kind of retention.

This may all be completely true. If it is, then it's another problem I have. Why would a company build something that hurts their vehicle? Why not just over build the battery? Build it for a capacity of 600 miles of range but then make the vehicle smart enough to limit the charge on a superchargers (or all chargers for that matter) to 500 or 550 or whatever is not harmful, and then advertise it as a 500 mile range battery...because that's all it will charge to. It will look and read as 100%, charge, but it will actually only be 90% or whatever is safe.

Overbuild, use smart software, take the abusive charging out of the equation, extend the life of the battery, give a better warranty, and sell more trucks!

 

[CyberMoose]

Lots to unpackage here.



I didn't say they would. Like you mentioned, "no one is going to blame you for having that desire". I caveated my statements with the words;




Your own research pretty much shows they can hit those numbers now. Even if not by actuary standards. I know nothing about better retention was mentioned on battery day, but I don't think it's unreasonable to believe this new 4680 battery can out perform the old battery retention. So if the old batteries can and the new batteries are better, then maybe?



This may all be completely true. If it is, then it's another problem I have. Why would a company build something that hurts their vehicle? Why not just over build the battery? Build it for a capacity of 600 miles of range but then make the vehicle smart enough to limit the charge on a superchargers (or all chargers for that matter) to 500 or 550 or whatever is not harmful, and then advertise it as a 500 mile range battery...because that's all it will charge to. It will look and read as 100%, charge, but it will actually only be 90% or whatever is safe.

Overbuild, use smart software, take the abusive charging out of the equation, extend the life of the battery, give a better warranty, and sell more trucks!

Of course my research and probably anyones research will show that the average Tesla will have much better retention than 70% at the end of the warranty. My truck is so far beyond it's estimated life because i take care of it. My car is older than an average car when it is junked and has far more miles on it, but still runs perfectly. Warranty criteria isn't for people who take perfect care of vehiles or even average care of their vehicle.


As for superchargers and battery charging. It's not just charging to 100% but Tesla also recommends not using a supercharger all the time because it's not good for your batter.

On the other hand, what if you travel a lot for work and you want a Tesla, If you are traveling long distances each day to meet with clients, to do consulting, or whatever the job may be; you might not have time to wait several hours for a level 2 charger to fill your battery. Tesla warns customers of the risks but they aren't going to tell them not to do something with a vehicle they own.

As for battery percentage, that can also be a similar argument. If you are someone who is traveling a lot, especially to rural areas that might not have charging infrastructure, you might need the additional range so you aren't sitting around in the middle of no where waiting for your Tesla to charge just enough from a 110v outlet to get you back to to a supercharger.

Also using a supercharger or charging to 100% isn't going to immediately make any noticiable difference for the battery. It's over a period of time. I don't see the possibility of any vehicle company telling their customers that they can only charge at level 2 speeds and they have a 100kw battery but only 80% of that battery will ever be permitted to use because of a small percentage of people who are going to damage their batteries, just to revise the warranty.

As far as I can see from chevy, nissan, VW, Ford, and Tesla. All of their warranties start at 100,000 miles or 8 years with 70% retention. I'm sure that all of these companies come close to 80% or better on average. But warranty isn't always about what the vehicle can live up to with proper care, I personally view warranty as the minimum acceptable level before it's undeniable that something is wrong with the vehicle.

 

[Akgolf]

After losing around 25% with only 20K miles on my Nissan Leaf, I’m willing to take my chances with Tesla.

 

[SpaceYooper]

As far as I can see from chevy, nissan, VW, Ford, and Tesla. All of their warranties start at 100,000 miles or 8 years with 70% retention. I'm sure that all of these companies come close to 80% or better on average. But warranty isn't always about what the vehicle can live up to with proper care, I personally view warranty as the minimum acceptable level before it's undeniable that something is wrong with the vehicle.

I haven't been accused of this and I'm not saying this to be argumentative, but I need to say it again; I'm just looking at CT3 because of the range it offers. As far as I'm concerned it's only competition are full size ICE trucks. So I draw no comparisons to it vs other EV batteries. I compare it to what I know I can get from an ICE truck, which is well over 500 miles per tank (stock) for as long as I would ever own it and convenient access to gas stations everywhere if I get in a pinch. Albeit, not as convenient as my house, but my house or neighborhood or even 90% of the time isn't my concern. It's hunting season that drives my requirement. I will take into consideration that the data shows better retention then warrantied. But I still might need Tesla over deliver on this front.

 

[CyberMoose]

I've just been voicing what me and others are trying to express, which is just a more realistic expectation on what the warranty will almost certainly be. I wish you and all of us the best of luck in getting a warranty that far surpasses any other warranty offered in the EV market by Tesla or Tesla competitors. But I think that's a long time away and if that's a major factor for your purchase, I'm not going to say give up on the Cybertruck, but I would be looking at ICE vehicles for the likelihood that the warranty either doesn't improve or doesn't improve by much at all.

 

[Crissa]

I hope that Tesla seems worries like these - that trucks are often asked to work extended hours, range, power - and comes up with what Cybertruck Todd cal 'dynamic charging'. A way we can plug in solar, trailer, extra batteries, generator sources - so that we can customize our energy to whatever use and range we need.

The same thing that would enable trailer to traction or solar to traction would enable these other solutions which would obviate the worry that out main pack won't suffice alone one day.

I live in a little cabin. I can't really opt for traditional solar. I don't use alot of power, so being able to tap that battery would be right nice... like last night, some transformer melted and left my entire zip-code out of power. Usually it's some dumb driver, but in the peak of heat, I would prefer not to suffer. And I don't want to run the generator unless I have to... but a few hours hour of relief is barely a trip into town, regarding range.

-Crissa

 

[CyberMoose]

I hope that Tesla seems worries like these - that trucks are often asked to work extended hours, range, power - and comes up with what Cybertruck Todd cal 'dynamic charging'. A way we can plug in solar, trailer, extra batteries, generator sources - so that we can customize our energy to whatever use and range we need.

The same thing that would enable trailer to traction or solar to traction would enable these other solutions which would obviate the worry that out main pack won't suffice alone one day.

I live in a little cabin. I can't really opt for traditional solar. I don't use alot of power, so being able to tap that battery would be right nice... like last night, some transformer melted and left my entire zip-code out of power. Usually it's some dumb driver, but in the peak of heat, I would prefer not to suffer. And I don't want to run the generator unless I have to... but a few hours hour of relief is barely a trip into town, regarding range.

-Crissa

I can definitely see the appeal for wanting vehicle to home support in the Cybertruck. The only thing that I can see as an arguement against that is it's not really a problem that vehicles should be solving.

I'm sure a lot of people might disagree with me there but I think that turning your vehicle into a possible battery pack for your home isn't something that Tesla should really focus on when it already has an actual battery pack for your home. I think that a great alternative instead of running your entire home off of your Cybertruck would be to have a battery pack for your home and have the Cybertruck capable of charging that at a slow rate.

Ford will offer vehicle to home but if i remember correctly, it's only if you have their top wall charger which is 80 amps and has 150kW charging. While that is great, I don't think that's at all necessary for a home charger. A fast charger might be good for some very specific people who are in the middle of no where, drive a ton, and don't have access to any fast charger. Or a business who wants to save money on charging a fleet of Cybertrucks. But other than that, I don't see many people needing a supercharger so much that they basically put one in their garage and on extremely rare occasions they can reverse the flow and power their home with their truck.

On another note, does anyone know how that will affect the battery? i personally don't know but i've always heard you shouldn't only use superchargers for a Tesla because it can degrade the battery.


I would be very happy if I had a powerwall that could power my home for even just 1-2 days in an emergency and it would be awesome if Tesla could make it so my Cybertruck could help recharge that powerwall if I don't have solar and the grid is down. If the grid is down I can plug my Cybertruck into the powerwall to keep it topped up, I can go to a supercharger, recharge, and bring it back, and I wouldn't have to worry about the battery working overtime while i'm cooking or doing laundry if it's a long blackout. That way you get pretty much get the benefits of vehicle to home without even leaving the vehicle at home. I live in Canada and I would hate to have to uber into the city during an outage because my family will be cold if I take the truck.

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