Promised range of 500 miles ?

[ModelC]

Those who are saying that CT range, tech nor Tesla charging infrastructure is a non-issue:

1. Have not made a road trip to Northwest Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Alberta, Northwest part of WA, Oregon and CA.

2. Have not experienced a 70% drop in range while pulling a 4,200 lbs RV for 89 miles.

3. Have not experienced an unexplained drop in range by 50% without towing and in mild weather in relatively flat freeway in 40 miles.

4. Have not seen the CT giving an estimated
23% charge remaining that was actually 12% when I reached the supercharger (i would have been f'd bigly had I follow the advise for an 80% charge).

And yeah, I am a hypermiler driving 65 to 69 mph and max 55 mph towing an RV.

My puchase use-case for the CT is road trip, camping and hunting up the boondocks that I cannot yet do with confidence after that Canadian turn-around anxiety.

Yeah, it seems like a you problem. Lucky for all of us.

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[ModelC]

You’ve never been to the west, southwest, desert southwest, Sierra Nevada high desert have you? We have significantly more off-road than on-road, Amigo.



Again, you’re making assumptions that can only be made in hindsight. Elon didn’t walk into that presentation without having done any homework. Covid and other complications wrecked their math, but they most certainly believed (correctly) that for the truck that they were producing to handle the capabilities that were promised -towing, doing Baja, and offroading/overlanding- that it would need 500 miles range for those who really wanted to get after it. There were lesser models for those who were only going to be going to the mall.

They had every intention of addressing this market and most certainly had calculations to make it both profitable and practical. That didn’t work out. And you know what happened as a result of that???

? They promised 500 miles, but didn’t deliver it. ?

It’s not a federal case, it’s just what happened.

Nighty-night!

Dalton just Steph Curried you, in a message board. Way to go, Dalton!

 

[dalton108]

Yeah, it seems like a you problem. Lucky for all of us.

Nah, we are legion! We have big vast ranges to explore and we need big range from our batteries.

 

[cybercricket]

I think Tesla was capable.

I was even optimistic on the 500 mile range promise as demonstrated in it's semi which came out earlier and shown in Bay Area to San Diego trip on full load.

They can make a 500mi truck now, but that would likely require upgrading from 4680 cells to something like 46110 (40% volumetric increase). They likely were bidding on some density increases while vehicle is in development, but that didn't materialize. There doesn't seem to be any room to add 4680's other than in the bed like they're already planning for time being.

 

[dalton108]

They can make a 500mi truck now, but that would likely require upgrading from 4680 cells to something like 46110 (40% volumetric increase). They likely were bidding on some density increases while vehicle is in development, but that didn't materialize. There doesn't seem to be any room to add 4680's other than in the bed like they're already planning for time being.

Didn’t Sandy Munro say that there was a lot more room or something like that in the battery pack when he did the teardown and didn’t understand why it wasn’t … fuller?

 

[Jack27]

Yes but you make it sound like Tesla anticipated that the vehicle was going to take five years to develop. Elon didn’t anticipate Covid. Lots of things happened in between the reveal to launch. Thank you for getting the timeline and how it happened - this was not a preview, it was an unveil.

Again, I need to be clear I’m not “whining” about it not having 500 miles I still bought the damn truck. I’m objecting to trying to police people’s use of the word “promise” when it is literally the exact right word in English to describe what was made.

I don’t understand why people are acting like acknowledging that fact is some kind of crime against humanity.

I also reject categorically any suggestion from anyone that 500 miles isn’t necessary. In an EV that is designed for off-road and towing?- Yes, it is!

 

[Jack27]

This thread is fantastic! ?

 

[cybercricket]

Didn’t Sandy Munro say that there was a lot more room or something like that in the battery pack when he did the teardown and didn’t understand why it wasn’t … fuller?

Correct - there was a "big" empty space at the bottom of the pack. It could have been for temp management (air circulation), mechanical protection, or.... for taller cells in the future without having to redesign the rest of the truck.

 

[dalton108]

Correct - there was a "big" empty space at the bottom of the pack. It could have been for temp management (air circulation), mechanical protection, or.... for taller cells in the future without having to redesign the rest of the truck.

AND I think you hit the nail on the head with your last conjecture.

I think the 4680s were harder than they thought, I think the dry cathode process scaling really kicked their asses more than they ever anticipated, I think Covid and inflation just completely fucked the math and they just couldn’t do it and make the 500 mile CB, practical and not laughably expensive. Too many compromises so they recalibrated and delivered something that made sense within what they were capable of doing at the time.

I don’t think there’s any shame in that.

 

[Pulaski]

screen shot from an old post.

 

[Jack27]

AND I think you hit the nail on the head with your last conjecture.

I think the 4680s were harder than they thought, I think the dry cathode process scaling really kicked their asses more than they ever anticipated, I think Covid and inflation just completely fucked the math and they just couldn’t do it and make the 500mph CB, practical and not laughably expensive. Too many compromises so they recalibrated and delivered something that made sense within what they were capable of doing at the time.

I don’t think there’s any shame in that.

Then give the dude a little baby pass on the “promise” ?

 

[dalton108]

screen shot from an old post.

Oh! Nice! That’s very interesting!!!

Honestly I would take it being 0 to 60 in three or 3.5 seconds and get that extra range. It’s cool that it’s quick but there’s just no good reason that I need it to be faster than my C8. If I want extreme speed, I’ve got my S Plaid.

 

[dalton108]

Then give the dude a little baby pass on the “promise” ?

But that’s all I keep saying! I’m not putting any value judgment on it- saying it’s some kind of unforgivable sin. It’s just what happened.

I feel like people want to avoid stating/acknowledging what’s true because they don’t like the >>implication<< and that’s the part that I dislike.

Accept the truth, reject the false narrative derived from it!

 

[cybercricket]

AND I think you hit the nail on the head with your last conjecture.

I think the 4680s were harder than they thought, I think the dry cathode process scaling really kicked their asses more than they ever anticipated, I think Covid and inflation just completely fucked the math and they just couldn’t do it and make the 500mph CB, practical and not laughably expensive. Too many compromises so they recalibrated and delivered something that made sense within what they were capable of doing at the time.

I don’t think there’s any shame in that.

To my knowledge dry electrode process doesn't impact the cell density, only the rate of production and cost. So the range reduction is either a product of physical dimension changes limiting the size of the battery pack, or like I said earlier it was an optimistic expectation that the cell chemistry will improve within a few years which didn't happen.

 

[dalton108]

To my knowledge dry cathode process doesn't impact the cell density, only the rate of production and cost. So the range reduction is either a product of physical dimension changes limiting the size of the battery pack, or like I said earlier it was an optimistic expectation that the cell chemistry will improve within a few years which didn't happen.

Yes I’ve heard it both ways. And I believe that you are correct that it’s not supposed to Affect density just cost and efficiency in production. So when I mention that above I’m really talking about cost savings that they couldn’t realize due to the difficulties they had in producing that process.

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