Cybertruck prototype spotted again on Fremont track. (2/7/2022)

[Cybertruckee]

These are really interesting points. Thanks for sharing that. I've also been wondering why we are not seeing more CT's around in general by now. Seems like either:

1) They are way further behind on this than they should be.
Or
2) They have been really good at keeping the CT under wraps, to keep other manufacturers in the dark about Tesla's plans.

I lean towards possibility number 2.

I'm also with no. 1. Previously, tests and actual mass production of Tesla vehicles are too close in between that other manufacturers cannot design and come out with something better or superior.

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[Ogre]

If that is the case, what has Tesla been working on for the last 3 years? Surely with all that time they should have completed the design (except for some new changes like rear steering) and been preparing for mass production. Not to mention they have stated these things on earning calls. I think they are ahead of what we think and are sandbagging the release dates/numbers.

The CT is Tesla's first vehicle that will have actual competition from other OEMs. They know this and are playing games with them.

I suspect Tesla is updating the truck on the fly.

They don’t want to release a truck that was designed 2-3 years ago with 2-3 year old tech. They are going to release a truck which is current with bleeding edge tech when it’s launched.

“A technology bandwagon” doesn’t come with 3 year old tech.

So even if they had most of this stuff largely ready to go, they are going to continue improving it until production.

 

[electricAK]

We know they are way further behind than they should be. If they were on time we’d be seeing them on the road!

Usually public sightings of new Tesla vehicles start cropping up 3-6 months before shipping starts. I don’t think this is that unusual.

Remember when 2 or 3 cybertrucks were sent to Alaska for cold weather testing? That was over a year ago I believe.

 

[Ogre]

The CT is Tesla's first vehicle that will have actual competition from other OEMs. They know this and are playing games with them.

Hmm? The Bolt was out prior to the Model Y. Wasn’t the Leaf also?

Not exact 1:1 competitors, but the Cybertruck isn’t 1:1 with anything else either.

 

[Sedoy]

If that is the case, what has Tesla been working on for the last 3 years? Surely with all that time they should have completed the design (except for some new changes like rear steering) and been preparing for mass production. Not to mention they have stated these things on earning calls. I think they are ahead of what we think and are sandbagging the release dates/numbers.

The CT is Tesla's first vehicle that will have actual competition from other OEMs. They know this and are playing games with them.

Well I hope I'm wrong, but they were not only working on CT but also needed built TX factory, setup an assembly line there, develop new 4680 cells for CT, etc. Plus the pandemic and parts shortage happed. Seems like quite a lot in 3 years...

 

[Ogre]

Remember when 2 or 3 cybertrucks were sent to Alaska for cold weather testing? That was over a year ago I believe.

Did they let you test drive them?

How come you didn’t get any spy photos? Don’t they grow potatoes there?

 

[Ogre]

Well I hope I'm wrong, but they were not only working on CT but also needed built TX factory, setup an assembly line there, develop new 4680 cells for CT, etc. Plus the pandemic and parts shortage happed. Seems like quite a lot in 3 years...

It’s likely a little of column A and a little of column B.

Seems like a fair number of bits of the Cybertruck are not on public display since the prototype. The vault cover being the big one.

Tesla is clearly still doing some things to finalize the Cybertruck, but it’s also likely there are some things they don’t want to share with GM/ Ford/ Rivian until it’s ready to start production. Range, charging speed, battery size, lots of things we’re not hearing about yet.

 

[Sedoy]

Remember when 2 or 3 cybertrucks were sent to Alaska for cold weather testing? That was over a year ago I believe.

How can they cold weather test something if they didn't even had 4680 cell and still don't

Did they let you test drive them?

How come you didn’t get any spy photos? Don’t they grow potatoes there?

Not only that... how can they cold weather test something if they didn't even have 4680 cells and still don't...? Could be very early pre-pre-pre production models for exoskeleton testing...

 

[Crissa]

If that is the case, what has Tesla been working on for the last 3 years?

Why waste time and manpower on a project that didn't have a factory to be built at?

They'd just have to repeat a bunch of the work to get the parts right. The parts available in 2019 are not the same as the one available in 2022.

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

Not only that... how can they cold weather test something if they didn't even have 4680 cells and still don't...? Could be very early pre-pre-pre production models for exoskeleton testing...

They were testing 4680 packs in 2019.

Volume ≠ 'have'.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

How can they cold weather test something if they didn't even had 4680 cell and still don't


Not only that... how can they cold weather test something if they didn't even have 4680 cells and still don't...? Could be very early pre-pre-pre production models for exoskeleton testing...

They’ve had test 4680 cells for quite some time. They’ve had lab scale production of the 4680 since well before the Cybertruck was announced. The problem with the 4680 was always about how they build millions of them.

Also “Still don’t?” They are ramping up their 10GWH battery factory in Fremont right now. They are running Model Ys using those and just waiting for certification of the pack to start production of the 4680 Model Y.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

It’s likely a little of column A and a little of column B.

Seems like a fair number of bits of the Cybertruck are not on public display since the prototype. The vault cover being the big one.

Tesla is clearly still doing some things to finalize the Cybertruck, but it’s also likely there are some things they don’t want to share with GM/ Ford/ Rivian until it’s ready to start production. Range, charging speed, battery size, lots of things we’re not hearing about yet.

Yes!
As Elon has said multiple times the vehicle design is significantly easier that designing the machine that makes the machine.
I think much of the engineering talent is being allocated to manufacturing not the actual truck…
I think they are confident in the vehicle design and know they they can easily manage minor issues in vehicle design.

I believe most of the challenges and real work is being done on the factory floor.

 

[Sedoy]

They were testing 4680 packs in 2019.

Volume ≠ 'have'.

-Crissa

I know, researchers have been testing solid-state batteries for years too, doesn't mean they will have it in production anytime soon

 

[Crissa]

Also “Still don’t?” They are ramping up their 10GWH battery factory in Fremont right now. They are running Model Ys using those and just waiting for certification of the pack to start production of the 4680 Model Y.

Fremont is probably ramped and they're building Austin to match. There's a pile of cars produced in Austin with 4680 packs now, not just test packs, but from the new factory.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Tesla likely has a few Cybertrucks they’ve built prototyping the assembly line and we’d never know. They probably finish testing or validate the production steps then quietly ship them off to dark corners of their facilities to gather dust until after launch when they will be given to employees or sent to museums.

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