Musk on Affordable Electric Truck

[anionic1]

Exactly how many high precision robots are you installing?

I don’t get too involved with the purchase of the process equipment. They send us the specs and tell us to make sure we have everything that tool needs to run. Sometimes we set the equipment, but often the vendor of the equipment is heavily involved. We built a car plant for fisker. I wasnt involved with that. I budgeted Rivians facility in Irvine. This doesn’t count but I built a Toyota dealership. Ive done quite a few classified type projects for satellite or rocket companies. I’ve done a lot of work for 3M and coordinated a lot of their heavy processing equipment. If I had to guess those robots are probably between $500k to $1M ea.

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[Crissa]

I don’t get too involved with the purchase of the process equipment. They send us the specs and tell us to make sure we have everything that tool needs to run. Sometimes we set the equipment, but often the vendor of the equipment is heavily involved. We built a car plant for fisker. I wasnt involved with that. I budgeted Rivians facility in Irvine. This doesn’t count but I built a Toyota dealership. Ive done quite a few classified type projects for satellite or rocket companies. I’ve done a lot of work for 3M and coordinated a lot of their heavy processing equipment. If I had to guess those robots are probably between $500k to $1M ea.

The point is that a paint facility now is basically a clean room plus heavy scrubbers plus lots of robots plus big vats and baths for chemical handling. Any one of these would be expensive, but air scrubbers plus clean room equals super-expensive.

-Crissa

 

[go99s]

You have a very optimistic outlook and that's great. I am guessing you don't work in any financial or purchasing application currently, because any business buying anything in almost any market sector right now will tell you cost are significantly higher than they were 2 years ago. A quote from Elon around June 2021, "Prices increasing due to major supply chain price pressure industrywide," he tweeted. "Raw materials especially." No one could have predicted or planned for 30% to 300% price increases over 2 years. My prediction is that if the truck is made, they will get out of preorders by not offering those options and we won't ever see a CT under $60k. That's why the options are removed and the pricing is removed. They are already going to disappoint over 1M people. Why add more by leaving options up that won't be available.

The market will correct itself over the next few years and Musk is probably waiting for that.

The only thing the exoskeleton design does is eliminate the paint. They still have to put a sheet of steel in a machine to shape it and it will get attached to other body parts prior to assembly just like a painted steel unibody would. People act like the exoskeleton is just these big sheets of steel that somehow hold the whole frame together like a crab skell. That will not be the case and you can see it some of the images. There are interior body panels that will connect to the stainless exterior panels. Yes the stainless panels will likely take a lot of the load and help reduce the interior panels but its not simple slapping exterior panels together and you have a frame.

Regarding paint, according to Munro the painting is not a significant savings in the fabrication process. The stainless is also likely to get some kind of treatment to make it appear more uniform and to remove any manufacturing imperfections so I doubt it will be free of finishing as others believe.

My comment seems to have stirred up a hornets nest and I can see from your responses that you have a much deeper understanding of the macro economics of manufacturing plant works than I ever will. I apologize for any and all discomfort I have caused you by my post.
I do genuinely believe that the engineering behind the raw stainless Cyber design concept will lead to it being significantly less expensive to build at scale but concede that I cannot quantify by how much. Most people seem to agree that Sandy Munro does have a deep understanding for this and my 'feeling' was bolstered by his conclusions video made shortly after the Cybertruck launch.
Your replies and those of others have made it clear that there are many other aspects to this that someone such as myself is simply not privy to.
Kind regards, Go99s.

 

[EV Rob]

Thus, I consider that we will not have a significant price hike.

Tesla Raises Prices Across Lineup; Cheapest Model Is $46,990 (yahoo.com)

Who thinks single motor CT will be Tesla's cheapest car?
Note Model S/Y dual motor is now $99K/$63K. And CT dual motor CT will be $49K?
Model S tri motor (396 mile range) is $136K. CT tri motor (500 mile range) will be $69K?

 

[Crissa]

He's got alot of good data here, check out the whooe video for charts. But basically, taking Tesla's actual numbers from their quarterly reports, you get this: That Tesla actually has been making their costs go down.

Now of course, they're going to see raw materials go up, so they're planning ahead, while also keeping their wait list down. (And the wait is still nuts).

As Rob points out, a bunch of things will reduce costs this year with the new factories spinning up and reducing logistics costs and then using more efficient factory methods...

Prices will come down. It's a matter of when, tho, and it might be pretty far when.

-Crissa

 

[Bill906]

Not sure if this has been pointed out before, but other automakers prices go up and down all the time. They just hide it in marketing BS. They set the MSRP to a very high number. Then offer discounts, cash back, 0% financing etc. which lowers the actual price from MSRP. If sales are slow, the marketing BS lowers the actual price. If demand is high, the selling price approaches MSRP.

A quick search of automaker websites right now show demand is high, the sales crap is low. According to Chevy this is Truck Month. Get $1000 in accessories with the purchase of a new truck. Jeep is offering 0.0% financing. Toyota is offering 2.4% financing.

Tesla doesn't play the marketing BS game. So when they change the selling price, it seems like a big deal because it's a direct number and not hidden in cash back or financing deals.

 

[EV Rob]

Prices will come down. It's a matter of when, tho, and it might be pretty far when.

I hope you're right. Not since Ford's Model T has there been a car company that could cut their prices in half with improved manufacturing efficiency. Will there be some kind of Moore's law for EVs, at some point?

other automakers prices go up and down all the time. They just hide it in marketing

That's a great point. Our conversion to EV/PHEV is a case in point. Through sheer luck, we got our MS just as Tesla dropped the price, pre-refresh, at the end of 2020. Then got a hybrid Pacifica, which still had local discounts and corporate incentives. Today it looks like Tesla raised its price on a MS (refreshed) by 40%. MSRP on the '22 Pacifica (essentially the same car as the '21) is up 10%. But today, if you can find one, there are now zero incentives as well as added dealer mark-up. The out-the-door price on the Pacific is up much more than just the increase in MSRP.

 

[Ogre]

Not sure if this has been pointed out before, but other automakers prices go up and down all the time. They just hide it in marketing BS. They set the MSRP to a very high number. Then offer discounts, cash back, 0% financing etc. which lowers the actual price from MSRP. If sales are slow, the marketing BS lowers the actual price. If demand is high, the selling price approaches MSRP.

A quick search of automaker websites right now show demand is high, the sales crap is low. According to Chevy this is Truck Month. Get $1000 in accessories with the purchase of a new truck. Jeep is offering 0.0% financing. Toyota is offering 2.4% financing.

Tesla doesn't play the marketing BS game. So when they change the selling price, it seems like a big deal because it's a direct number and not hidden in cash back or financing deals.

Yep. I know which GMs are selling poorly, I‘m still in the Costco auto program and get mailers all the time for various vehicles advertising an extra $2000 off some car or another. You know if they are pumping a vehicle with big discounts on top of the Costco program there is some serious discounting going on.

 

[John K]

0.00% loans are awesome

 

[anionic1]

Tesla Raises Prices Across Lineup; Cheapest Model Is $46,990 (yahoo.com)

Who thinks single motor CT will be Tesla's cheapest car?
Note Model S/Y dual motor is now $99K/$63K. And CT dual motor CT will be $49K?
Model S tri motor (396 mile range) is $136K. CT tri motor (500 mile range) will be $69K?

Any version of the CT, even the lowest motor version, will be more costly than the Model Y and the Model 3 at any trim/motor. The single motor CT will never be built. Look how far we have come in just 10 years. a single motor CT would be at least 5 years out and by then the world will be an entirely different place. I don't see a single motor CT happening. The model y has increased 30% in price since around the time the CT was introduced. Even with Teslas manufacturing and design improvements. It would be safe to assume that any CT option will go up 30%. Its anticipated that inflation could get over 5% this year as well and having evaluated over $1B in cost this year personally already I can say its definitely accurate. Hey maybe all this inflation will drive the demand for the cheaper CT option. Unfortunately there are a lot of folks out there making a killing off the economic fluctuations so Tesla would still make a lot for a long time selling a $90k plus CT so I am not holding my breath.

 

[Crissa]

The single motor CT will never be built. Look how far we have come in just 10 years. a single motor CT would be at least 5 years out and...

Is it 'never' or 'five years'?

-Crissa

 

[anionic1]

Is it 'never' or 'five years'?

-Crissa

If they are aiming to build it, it would happen 5 years out. And being 5 years out, I don't think it will ever get built because so much in the EV world will have changed by then. That is what I meant. Next year I give any CT coming to market a 25% chance due to inflation and material shortage likely to last through this year and next. I think a $90k quad motor version of the CT may come in 2024 and a dual motor in 2025. Once they work through the 1M preorders a single motor may follow, but seeing their past and seeing that this is likely a 6,000 lb plus vehicle, a single motor version is really doubtful in my opinion. The dual motor will probably land around $70k and they will have an unending demand similar to the F150 over the years.

I think we will see the quad motor long range and a dual motor standard range and dual motor long range and that's it.

 

[hridge2020]

Maybe we need a letter like this.


For anyone with a Cybertruck preorder as of the March 1 pricing announcement, your original configured price will be honored. If you canceled your preorder on or after March 1 and would like to reinstate it, we will restore your original configuration, pricing and delivery timing. Our team will be sending an email in the next few days with more details.

 

[Ogre]

Fundamentally, there is nearly zero correlation between Tesla’s pricing and the actual cost of goods sold.

They’ve made multiple price increases over the past year even as their cost of goods sold went down.

The mid-range Cybertruck was priced similar to the Model Y AWD LR. Chances are that’s where the base Cybertruck will land price wise. The idea that Tesla would increase prices on existing Cybertruck pre-orders faster than on Model Y 2022 sales is just bizarre. Keeping pace with them? I can see that, but not outpacing them.

Increasing prices increases the chance Tesla will launch a single motor truck to make the line more approachable to consumers. Tesla has introduced the base RWD version on both the Model 3 and the Model Y (in China) to stimulate demand. They are apparently re-launching the Model Y RWD version in the US as well.

Suggesting that Tesla will not launch the single motor truck just suggests people don’t understand how Tesla does business.

 

[anionic1]

https://tflcar.com/2022/03/rivian-ceo-letter-price-clarification-for-current-reservations-news/

Rivian is losing so much money on every vehicle already and they can't afford to lose their fan base so they probably figured what the heck lets just honor the numbers for previous order holders prior to March and deal with it, since half the people in polls were threatening to pull their order. And the fact that they are raised their price for new orders only strengthens my argument. The new equivalent Rivian with quad motor and 400 mi range is now a $90k vehicle. The equivalent (if you can call it that) F150 lightening is also in the $90k range. The CT will be right there when it comes to market.

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