👷‍♂️ Tesla plans for 375K Cybertruck annual production (at least) and have first release candidates by late August! [supplier news 6/8/23]

[anionic1]

I still get confused by these discussions that imply Elon has ever stated 2024 production

The question asked at roundup was eventual max production, period. The question was not 2024 max production.

It's possible Musk believes they'll reach max production in 2024, but noone's asked, and he's never said, if that's true.

And in the same vein: this story, and Electrek's information, places no metrics on the timing of these figures. For all we know, it could be 375K next month, or in 2030.

Vendors are usually only planning for actual production about a year or 18 mo out. I have never talked to a vendor talking about production 2 years from now. Most aren't too concerned about production 2 years out. Most are looking at what they will sell this year and next year. Its definitely not a 2030 figure. Probably a 2024 figure.

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[8buck]

Wow. I most definitely need to start making space in the garage. This is feeling very much like a Q1 delivery for us (~49k in line +/-).

So jealous! I'm 400,000+

 

[IJNYamato]

Tesla is planning to have its first Cybertruck release candidates at the end of August.

Fact

 

[Glen]

375,00 annual production works out to 7500 Cybertrucks per week if operating at a 50 week production schedule to allow for holidays.

We are all still waiting for the final puzzle piece. Pricing.

It looks pricing will be revealed within the next 7- weeks if the delivery event is planned for the end of August.

….and if it’s too high above the 2019 announced prices (which were very low by todays standards) we will probably see many canceling their initial order and this will move many others up on the list.

 

[Ogre]

MOAR MOAR MOAR


Turn up the volume!

 

[Flaskman]

That puts my delivery date to '24-'25. I'll be well into my 80s. Iwonder if I will be able to climb into the front seat

I am 65 with my reservation from 6/22. I am right there with you.

 

[anionic1]

I expressed this before and I am still slightly concerned that Telsa will put the CT in its more luxury class with the Model X and S by controlling the price. They could ramp up those vehicles for higher mass production and greatly drive the price down which would increase the demand. I know a lot of folks that would much rather have an X than a Y but they couldn't afford it. The way Elons attitude toward the CT has shifted is concerning. It used to be like this is going to be a crazy efficient car to make at a really low number to this is going to be an expensive car to make and we will probably keep production low unless people really want it. Well people aren't going to really want it for very long if its $80k+. I guess the one positive thing is that they do seem to be setting up production for higher qty's than the X or S. But again, Tesla will have control of the supply demand curve on this one with their pricing.

I am hoping Elon was paying attention when Apple unveiled the pricing for the Apple Vision and people gasped. Anyway, I am a day one reservation holder and I have been looking forward to this beast for years as many others have. I want to see the CT beat the pants off bubbly Rivian and the cookie cutter Lighting.

 

[cvalue13]

Its definitely not a 2030 figure. Probably a 2024 figure.

I was being no more literal about 2030 than I was about "next month"

Vendors are usually only planning for actual production about a year or 18 mo out. I have never talked to a vendor talking about production 2 years from now. Most aren't too concerned about production 2 years out. Most are looking at what they will sell this year and next year.

It seems your comments regarding "planning for actual production" is coming from a perspective of discrete near-term work-orders that result from an otherwise long-term contract, which long-term contracts are themselves negotiated on the bases of assumptions of production over the course of the life of the contract.

Just last month was the leaked story of Seoyeon E-Hwa wining orders for all A, B, and C pillar trim for the Cybertruck, in a parts contract period through until 2028, with life-of-contract sales estimated to reach 300 billion won. Those full-contract sales estimates are only possible if the contract includes notional production volumes for the life of the contract.

In all: we have no idea of the source, character, and context of the "375K/yr" figure, beyond the only information Electrek gives in the story:

"Now, Electrek gets more details through communications that Tesla sent to suppliers for the Cybertruck program"​

There's zero basis to assume that figure is for a near-term work order, vs details regarding estimates in a long-term base MSA, vs a drunken one-night-stand between an Electrek employee and the CEO of Seoyeon E-Hwa

 

[Deleted member 17810]

Baseline of 375 matches my prediction of a million a yea.

 

[bigrin]

I think Elon will surprise many. He may increase the cost of the truck a little to offset unanticipated costs known at reveal, but I think he's a man of the people. I believe he knows that going " FoMoCo Lightning crazy " won't bid well for his reputation. He has shown he's not afraid to lose money (Twitter) doing the right thing. Keepin fingers crossed.

 

[C T Rick]

Elon is paying for mine. But to save on capital gains, I need to front the money from savings, not my IRA that Elon is sitting in.

I was at the Mall last week and stopped in at the Tesla showroom. The sales person had a great video of the CT from when it was at the Peterson Museum with the gate down. The bed definitely looks a lot larger than what’s out there on the other EV trucks.

Rick

 

[Diehard]

Does anyone know what candidates mean in this context? Can Tesla order 375K parts if they don’t know which CT they are building? How does the sequence of events work? Do share if any of you are familiar with the process.

p.s. My assumption is that the weakest link determines the actual production numbers not just one part. And that may explain the difference between 250 and 375.

 

[Space monkey]

I can no longer access my order on tesla.com. I get
403 Access Denied…
But I can access other tesla products I have in my account, solar etc.
Does this mean they are behind the scenes working on my order?

 

[Trbizwiz]

Well for me this means we'll probably have a price in August. If the price is high and I win the lottery (which I don't actually play) I'm sure my place in line will jet forward. If the price is low then I have more time to stash a few acorns.

Trying to figure out how to buy a model 3 before the cybertruck comes out and still be able to buy a cybertruck. And also not get tied down with lots of new debt. And also somehow achieve some financial goals before retirement. Hmm... This may not compute...

I just bought a 3 RWD today. After rebate it is $33,000. I got the Blue with white. White with black would have been $2000 cheaper. I already have a Model Y and we have off peak charging through FPL so the charging for the 3 will be totally free, as long as its off peak. So I used the tesla loyalty rewards from todays purchase, to enter the Cybertruck drawing a few times. They charge you 500 points for each entry. Hopefully no one else enters, and I win it by default!!! LOL!
So go buy your 3, just buy it off inventory, and save $2550, plus the $7500. Performance is around $5,000 off, but that is not really a budget play, since they are $10,000 more expensive. If you're already a Tesla owner, you can get 3500 loyalty points. If you're not, use some ones's referral code, and you can get 1500 points. That'll get you 3 entries. Word of caution, Tesla is very tricky with how you get the loyalty points, if you're already an owner. So you have to jump through specific, and rather silly hoops. If you dont, you wont be getting the rewards.

 

[swengl]

The 375K is right between the low/high end estimates to this point. I see this as a good thing, a bit of cautious optimism on Elon's part. Just because they are targeting 375K doesn't mean that they can't potentially go higher. I wonder how many giga-casting machines will be needed to reach 375K/yr?

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