4860 wild ___ speculation

CyberMoose

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I am planning on keeping my CT for 10+ years so I would pass on 2170 cells if it meant an earlier delivery. 4680's all the way.
I'm also in the boat for 'I just want them'. I'm not a battery expert but Tesla provided a good argument for the new batteries on battery day and I trust Tesla to give me the best vehicle possible. If we are right around the time where they are putting the 4860s in some vehicles and not in others, I want to be with the group that get 4860s. Even if the difference won't be much, or it won't be enough for me to notice a difference, I still want it.

Just like the body is bullet proof to a 9mm handgun. Do i need it? no. Will I notice it? no. Do I hope I will ever find out? no. Do I want a bullet-proof truck? absolutely.





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John K

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The battery I want:

million mile rated
High capacity/range
cost efficient to produce and use
safe
quick and safe to charge and efficient to get me to 60 in seconds (and turn off insurance monitoring)

what I don’t want
bringing the truck in to repair/replace battery
delays in my CT delivery and compromising quality

My contribution to VOC
 

CyberMoose

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The battery I want:

million mile rated
High capacity/range
cost efficient to produce and use
safe
quick and safe to charge and efficient to get me to 60 in seconds (and turn off insurance monitoring)

what I don’t want
bringing the truck in to repair/replace battery
delays in my CT delivery and compromising quality

My contribution to VOC
I think the current battery hits all of those points except the million miles of use. However, no one has really had the time to hit a million miles yet. In 2019 someone hit the 1,000,000km mark and as of two days ago their twitter shows they hit 1,333,333km. they are still a few hundred thousand kilometers from a million miles but it's possible.

The real question is how many people will do a million miles without replacing the battery. Personally even if Tesla tells me that the battery will last a million miles, I will replace my battery the moment solid state battery modules are available. if that's in 10 years from now, I probably won't even have more than 300,000 miles on it but it would be worth it if we finally reach solid state batteries for insane charging speeds and greatly increased range.
 

John K

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I will replace my battery the moment solid state battery modules are available. if that's in 10 years from now, I probably won't even have more than 300,000 miles on it but it would be worth it if we finally reach solid state batteries for insane charging speeds and greatly increased range.
I anticipate buying a newer CT (hover CT) when the time comes over retrofitting previous model if the current battery is within operational limits.

if the early discusion remains at on million mile expectancy, I plan a personal use at 50%. Which means, if my son wants the truck, it will remain a viable vehicle for him as I hover around in my new one.
 

CyberMoose

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I anticipate buying a newer CT (hover CT) when the time comes over retrofitting previous model if the current battery is within operational limits.

if the early discusion remains at on million mile expectancy, I plan a personal use at 50%. Which means, if my son wants the truck, it will remain a viable vehicle for him as I hover around in my new one.
I'm kind of the opposite. I would love to keep the original Cybertruck forever. I really wanted the original roadster too but I was starting highschool when it came out so there was no chance I would have gotten one. The model S came out when I was starting University and the Model 3 and Model Y, while fantastic vehicles, didn't really speak to me. Now that I've actually made something of myself and can afford a brand new vehicle, I am not passing up on getting the original Cybertruck.

I'm hoping the Cybertruck wins the race to deliveries so it'll also be the first electric truck on the market.
 

John K

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Oh, the original will stay in the family, everything becomes my son’s eventually. 😀

I am banking the truck will not only last but also increase with classic value
 

madquadbiker

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I agree. The CT1/2 may have a different battery than the CT3. Now that my dyslexia has been brought to light, you could double stack the 2170 as well. The structure is really a hybrid of the Exoskeleton, the mega casting and the battery pack. I don't see that a structural battery pack necessarily means that it cannot be replaced or upgraded. The batteries just have to support themselves and have enough connection points to provide some residual strength back to the exoskeleton and castings and tie everything together. My theory is that the battery cavity will stay the same so they don't have to reengineer the whole truck.

That is my hope anyway so my CT2 batteries can be upgraded in 5-8 years. Maybe even skip a generation of batteries.

After all at battery day Elon did say it would be at least 3 years before everything was realized. I think we may have been over optimistic to think the CT would get the 4680.
These would then make a great battery storage system.
 

Crissa

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I am planning on keeping my CT for 10+ years so I would pass on 2170 cells if it meant an earlier delivery. 4680's all the way.
Why would that matter to you, though?

Cybermoose's point 'I just want them' is perfectly valid, but generally Tesla upgrades their battery formula constantly, no matter the cell size.

I think the Cybertruck will use them, though. It will help their range density problem for a truck. Just as they'll solve the numerical problem they were having with the Semi.

-Crissa
 
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Tinker71

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These would then make a great battery storage system.
I can't wait to see if they are removable. That is probably my number 1 concern. Electric motors are near the efficiency limit a stainless steel body should last 20 with abuse, the only thing that would really need an upgrade is the battery and maybe the computer. The total carbon footprint of a Tesla with a 20 year life expectancy would be awesome.

I could slum it with 300 mile range for a couple years. Especially if I could make a battery storage unit out of it to help offset the upgrade cost.
 

CyberMoose

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I can't wait to see if they are removable. That is probably my number 1 concern. Electric motors are near the efficiency limit a stainless steel body should last 20 with abuse, the only thing that would really need an upgrade is the battery and maybe the computer. The total carbon footprint of a Tesla with a 20 year life expectancy would be awesome.

I could slum it with 300 mile range for a couple years. Especially if I could make a battery storage unit out of it to help offset the upgrade cost.
When you say 20, you mean 20 years? Does your abuse include weekly cliff jumps? The model 3 drive unit and body is said to be made to last a million miles and you would need to replace the battery to get the full life out of it. With a stainless steel body, even with abuse, the body should last longer than the rest of the vehicle.
 

CyberT

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Why would that matter to you, though?

Cybermoose's point 'I just want them' is perfectly valid, but generally Tesla upgrades their battery formula constantly, no matter the cell size.

I think the Cybertruck will use them, though. It will help their range density problem for a truck. Just as they'll solve the numerical problem they were having with the Semi.

-Crissa
I meant that with updates on the 4680 cells from battery day, I am interested in having the latest/greatest since I'll be keeping this truck for a long time, and as BAD as I want my CT I would wait another year if it meant getting the 4680 cells.

But this is all for nothing because I am confident that the first CTs will roll out with 4680s.
 
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Tinker71

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When you say 20, you mean 20 years? Does your abuse include weekly cliff jumps? The model 3 drive unit and body is said to be made to last a million miles and you would need to replace the battery to get the full life out of it. With a stainless steel body, even with abuse, the body should last longer than the rest of the vehicle.
The average life expectancy of a car is currently ~8 years. 20 years on a CT would be pretty awesome. The pneumatic suspension and wiring harness are a couple areas of concern and can get expensive fast. Then seats, seals and stuff will show some wear and tear. Add 16 years of new tech and I bet most people will be replacing them around then if not sooner.
 

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