4860 wild ___ speculation

CyberMoose

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The average life expectancy of a car is currently ~8 years. 20 years on a CT would be pretty awesome. The pneumatic suspension and wiring harness are a couple areas of concern and can get expensive fast. Then seats, seals and stuff will show some wear and tear. Add 16 years of new tech and I bet most people will be replacing them around then if not sooner.
The average life of a vehicle is so low because the market is saturated with affordable vehicles for people to buy, even if it's not going to last them more than a decade.

I have a truck that's over 20 years old, with a few hundred thousand miles, that still drivers perfectly. Maintenance is always going to be a requirement for vehicles. I've changed all 4 hub assemblies on my truck twice, one of them I changed 3 times, I've swapped out the AC, rewired the rear lights, upgraded the sound system, put in remote start, and got comfier seats. All of the work that I put into my truck totaled around 3000-3500USD. If I add the time I spent for labor costs, i might be around 5000USD.

That's in a 20 year old truck that wasn't really built to exceed 300,000 miles. My car is nearing 300,000 miles and i've put less than $1000 in non-regular maintenance items.

If we ignore the cheap $15k-$20k vehicles, the average life of a vehicle jumps up a lot. Expensive vehicles like a Tesla are built with quality in mind. I'm not saying that every part is going to last 30-40 years on average. But replacing a seat, getting the suspension fixed or even replaced, replacing the MCU, all of that is pretty minimal compared to the cost of another quality vehicle. Even if you buy the Cybertruck for 70k, sell it in 8 years for around 40k-50k and buy the new model for 70k. that's 20k-30k when a few thousand in upgrades would mostly close the gap between models only 8 years apart unless there is a massive technological advancement during that time.





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kev12345

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Personally even if Tesla tells me that the battery will last a million miles, I will replace my battery the moment solid state battery modules are available.
probably easier to just buy a new truck and whoever buys yours benefits from your million mile battery.
 

CyberMoose

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probably easier to just buy a new truck and whoever buys yours benefits from your million mile battery.
I'll never sell my Cybertruck. I've read that replacing the battery back could cost upwards of $16000 in the current Tesla vehicles and I would suspect the Cybertruck to cost more. However the cost to replace just the Battery modules in the battery pack is supposed to be significantly lower but I don't see any examples of that cost, we would have to see in the distant future.

Personally I would strongly considered replacing the battery module even if it costed me $20000 if it meant a solid state battery upgrade. I might buy a new Cybertruck in the distant future if I feel my family needs another truck, like maybe when I have kids and they all start driving, but someday the original Cybertruck will be a classic and I'll be very happy to have one of the original models from the preorders.
 

anionic1

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I would agree with this statement. Tesla might be waiting until they get one-upped before doing a Plaid+ just to know where they need to take it to next. Not to mention that every battery in the Plaid+ (assuming 4680's) would be cannibalizing a CT truck of its batteries. Speculation: In addition they may also be lacking the resources to implement the needed changes to accept the redesign of the pack and the car itself to support the dimensional changes, etc. required.

I could see it as resources better spent elsewhere sort of scenario. Especially from a board of directors. =P

Elon needs to spin off a separate company in the likes of a Shelby or Hennessy for things such as a Plaid+. Then he could have his cake and eat it too. =)
Definitely way off battery topic but on topic of Tesla spin offs. I really think there is a huge market that Tesla isn't tapping into. Yes, their cars look great, but honestly, aside from the truck, I think they all sort of look the same and not necessarily very stylish and arguably are valued heavily by brand identity etc. over looks. I think they need to tap into other styles and I get that we are aiming to bend the barriers of physics and all with low drag coefficients, but is it more environmentally important that they have the most efficient cars or that they get more people to give up their ICE car for electric. All to say, i think they should buy this company and start to make their cars a reality Alpha Motor. I feel like Tesla appeals to a tech/middle class uppity crowd. The Alpha Motors cars seem like they would be appealing to the teen or young adult that didn't want to fit the Tesla mold that seems to have evolved. The Cybertruck seems to break that mold for sure but a company like Alpha Motors would open up an entirely new market. Come on Elon! Lets do it!
 
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Tinker71

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probably easier to just buy a new truck and whoever buys yours benefits from your million mile battery.
The secondary market will be interesting. If there is a leap in technology and say range capacity for towing increases 50% and the cost remains close will you get $50k for your used CT3? Too many variables to foresee 4 plus years out. Best value math should prevail at the time we make the decision to upgrade and repurpose our battery or buy new. We just need the ability to remove and replace the battery pack.
 

Billyboy

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This is just a theory, but I think Tesla must be further along on the battery production than some give them credit OR they have a back up plan. With Berlin and Austin geared up to spit out model Y in the fall/early with 4860 structural packs Tesla has a plan to make things come together. With that kind of production capacity they can't be relying on the pilot plant alone. Did they start making 4860 in Nevada? We don't hear a lot about Nevada. Maybe they are really good about keeping secrets in Nevada.

So either Tesla must be very confident that machines to make the batteries are designed correctly and on order for delivery in October/mass production in November or they can make a semi structural pack out of 18650s or 2170 that will work in the Y and CT.

The18650 and 2170 are still awesome batteries. It may have been slightly strategic of Tesla to roll out the Plaid with 18650 to prove that point. Message sent "if you get a pre 4860 Tesla of any model you are still getting a great vehicle"

It is a bit of a long shot, but would you take a CT1/2 with 18650 batteries if they delivered in December/January? With a 160mm deep battery area maybe Tesla has a plan to build an interim battery pack. That is a lot of volume to build a battery pack with structural properties. If everything else stayed the same they could convert the lines to 4860 when the batteries are available.....and roll out the CT3 around then.

The pieces that need to come together of an overnight switch to 4860 is mind boggling. An interim pack could really ease that transition.
One of the Utube channels answered this. Those older battery types are not tabless and that is required for structural pack.
 

Billyboy

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I'll never sell my Cybertruck. I've read that replacing the battery back could cost upwards of $16000 in the current Tesla vehicles and I would suspect the Cybertruck to cost more. However the cost to replace just the Battery modules in the battery pack is supposed to be significantly lower but I don't see any examples of that cost, we would have to see in the distant future.

Personally I would strongly considered replacing the battery module even if it costed me $20000 if it meant a solid state battery upgrade. I might buy a new Cybertruck in the distant future if I feel my family needs another truck, like maybe when I have kids and they all start driving, but someday the original Cybertruck will be a classic and I'll be very happy to have one of the original models from the preorders.
The Cybertruck battery won’t have modules.
 

TechOps

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My S.W.A.G.:
I think that Tesla is struggling with ramping 4680 production in the short term, but they are stockpiling enough they're comfortable they can bring Berlin (and maybe Austin) online with supplies from CA.

I think they feel relatively comfortable in the ramp, especially in the medium or long term. They have optionality for CT -- they could probably meet spec for Dual motor with 2170's or something similar, if they can get a tabless form factor. But for tri-motor, they'll need 4680s to meet 500mi range.

They don't appear to be panicking, although they're obviously juggling a LOT of projects (semi, roadster, CT, etc..) right now, so it's probably a very fluid situation. Except that it's completely dry. My guess is they're executing according to the battery day ramp plan, but there could be short term fluctuations from that ramp. In the long term, this will work.
 

CyberMoose

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The Cybertruck battery won’t have modules.
I haven't seen any confirmation of Tesla getting rid of modules. I know that early last year Elon was talking about getting rid of them and just combining the module team with the pack team at Tesla but other than that I haven't read any articles that mention that.

If they get rid of modules which would probably be quite beneficial to add more cells, even if just a small amount, I'm sure Tesla it so it's not overly difficult to replace the battery. Without modules it would be far easier to replace just the cells. My assumption is that Tesla could open the battery pack from below, while some of the larger bolts that connect the battery pack to the front and rear castings would be removed, it would be fine while the vehicle is stationary as long as the top part is still secured. Then i assume it would be as easy as replacing the batteries and placing it back in.

Those are just my thoughts if modules are actually going out the door with structural battery packs. It would definitely be a benefit now that there are larger cells that can be replaced a lot faster than many more smaller cells. I hope Tesla does something to make cell replacements that much easier, it would definitely make people really happy in the future when there is an available upgrade.
 
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Tinker71

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One of the Utube channels answered this. Those older battery types are not tabless and that is required for structural pack.
Can send the link. I am interested.
 

Crissa

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Structural needs physically bigger batteries. (Leverage) Bigger batteries need the tabless to perform as well as the current small batteries. (so the current flows across them evenly).

-Crissa
 
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Diehard

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I thought it was prolong exposure to oxygen that is killing us?
It is prolong exposure to digital screens that is doing the killing. Just try (if you can) spend 24 hours without any screens and you will see how much longer you live In that 24 hours.
 

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