A new U.S. based giga factory just for Cybertruck

Ogre

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Nor did I say that people were hoarding electric vehicles.
You quite specifically brought up Toilet Paper, not me. The only reason toilet paper was scarce was hoarding. There was no sudden run on toilet paper need. Not my fault you chose a crap example. (Puns intended)

I said TODAY the demand is not there.
As I said before, we don't know this.

How many people would buy them if they were available?

We have no idea what actual demand is because supply is massively limited on all the cars and trucks people actually want. More than a million people paid $100 to be put on a 2-4 year wait list for an electric truck. That's just for one weird looking truck. 120,000 paired to be put on the wait list for the F150. There are 10s of thousands on the wait list for the Aptera. The Arcimoto has huge waitlists as well. 10s of thousands on the Rivian wait list.

There are EVs that don't sell well, but they are mediocre cars. The cars which are released which are *good* cars that happen to be EVs sell out immediately.

As I said previously, there is no separate demand channel for "BEV" versus "ICE", only for good (and decent value) vehicles and (little demand) for bad/ overpriced vehicles.

It’s gonna take some time to build up that charging capacity.
This is all circular. Tesla builds out infrastructure as they increase capacity for producing cars. If they could produce 20m cars a year, they would be churning out enough charging stations to support them. That is how Tesla has built out their entire network. More cars, more charging stations. They go hand-in-hand. Musk was quite specific about this in the most recent earnings call.
Sponsored

 
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Crissa

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Energica has a waitlist. Zero and Livewire don't, but both of these are priced so high you could buy three similar ICE powered bikes for one.

That doesn't show a weakness in demand! It says the demand is there, if supply could meet it.

-Crissa
 

MEDICALJMP

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You quite specifically brought up Toilet Paper, not me. The only reason toilet paper was scarce was hoarding. There was no sudden run on toilet paper need. Not my fault you chose a crap example. (Puns intended)


As I said before, we don't know this.

How many people would buy them if they were available?

We have no idea what actual demand is because supply is massively limited on all the cars and trucks people actually want. More than a million people paid $100 to be put on a 2-4 year wait list for an electric truck. That's just for one weird looking truck. 120,000 paired to be put on the wait list for the F150. There are 10s of thousands on the wait list for the Aptera. The Arcimoto has huge waitlists as well. 10s of thousands on the Rivian wait list.

There are EVs that don't sell well, but they are mediocre cars. The cars which are released which are *good* cars that happen to be EVs sell out immediately.

As I said previously, there is no separate demand channel for "BEV" versus "ICE", only for good (and decent value) vehicles and (little demand) for bad/ overpriced vehicles.



This is all circular. Tesla builds out infrastructure as they increase capacity for producing cars. If they could produce 20m cars a year, they would be churning out enough charging stations to support them. That is how Tesla has built out their entire network. More cars, more charging stations. They go hand-in-hand. Musk was quite specific about this in the most recent earnings call.
Just like with my wife during any other inane conversation which has proceeded far too long and produces no tangible benefits I will admit I’m wrong and give you a win.

I’m wrong, honey. Congratulations, fine sir. You hath vanquished your mortal foe! ?

Don’t expect flowers.
 

Ogre

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Just like with my wife during any other inane conversation which has proceeded far too long and produces no tangible benefits I will admit I’m wrong and give you a win.
Sort of like winning the prize at the upwind pissing contest... a dubious prize, but I'll accept it.
 

Bill906

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The only reason toilet paper was scarce was hoarding.
Not to disagree with you but I heard somewhere (no source) that part (probably small part) of the TP issue was that offices typically use large TP rolls and homes use the small ones. Because of COVID everyone started working (and pooping) from home. It took a while for the small roll supply to adjust.

Again, not disagreeing, just bringing it up as a fun thing to think about.
 


LDRHAWKE

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Tesla also needs to build the mines and refining capacity before they build more Gigafactories. There isn't even enough supply line for the Austin facility yet!

-Crissa
How do you know that?
 

Quicksilver

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No one has claimed that there won't be some people who will stubbornly resist EV's by continuing to buy ICE vehicles long after it makes any practical sense to do so but those people will be largely outnumbered by rational consumers who want the most value for their money (and the nicest, most convenient car with better performance and reliability).
A lot of these people will be low income types (and maybe low IQ types) but as the number of EVs increases and the demand for gasoline and diesel wans the price of fuel will go up.
It will be hard to justify ten buck a gallon gas or diesel.
Big Oil will cut production and as we all know when the supply tightens the price goes up.
Pipelines and distribution costs (trucking fuel to the stations) will not get any cheaper and will have a direct effect on price. Truckers still have to be paid.
It would be ironic to have Tesla semis delivering gas and diesel.
States may also increase the fuel tax to make up for lost revenue which will further increase the price of dino juice. Of course they may jack up fees for registering an EV too.
At some point the even the most obtuse EV resistors will be priced out of ICE ownership.
 
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Ogre

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A lot of these people will be low income types
The used EV market is weird, but there are already a lot of good value used EVs. Leaf's are deep in bargain territory ripe for folks with a limited budget. I expect lots of these i3s, Golf EVs, Bolts (if they ever sort their battery issues), and low-range EVs are going to drop in value quickly as well.

So far Teslas have held their value quite well (increased in value recently!).
 

LDRHAWKE

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...Because Elon said so?

Also, there's constrained global raw mineral extraction, as in, not enough currently to supply everyone's need. So the mines need to be built.

-Crissa
Where and when did he say that?
 


jerhenderson

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According to one of the Tesla talking heads on YouTube there is not enough income in India (population yes, income no) to warrant a plant there. Average income there is $3,168.00 per year.
Giga Berlin can send cars to India.......mayhaps the 25K model we are hearing about for the more affluent Indians. .
South America is the next logical place for Tesla EV production.
Maybe....but 1% of 1.4 billion people is a lot of sales.
 

jerhenderson

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Much like China, concepts like "average" income greatly distort reality over there. There are 1.3 billion people in India. Most of them are in poverty, but much like China, there is also a large middle class making decent money. When jobs get outsourced to India, those folks get paid half to a third what US tech workers make, but that's still a decent income, particularly in a country where the cost of living is low.

Sounds like they want to import cars into India but aren't committing to large scale production right now.
let's not forget the US has less than 400 million people and a large % also live in poverty.
 

Ogre

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let's not forget the US has less than 400 million people and a large % also live in poverty.
Too lazy to look up the exact numbers so don't @ me, but it's something like this:

In the US, poverty is $30,000/ year.

In India, it's $1,200/ year.
 

Crissa

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