ARK Invest: What Will Demand Be For The Cybertruck?

[Tinker71]

If you look at the people that registered on the CT spreadsheet, most of the reservations were for the 3 motor version with the next most, the 2 wheeled version and the least were for the 1 motor version (there is nothing more useless than a rear wheel drive pick up truck off road or in the snow)

With regard to affordability, I believe Elon was referencing the 39 k model, which will be difficult to produce and have low margins similar to the 35 k model 3, which took years to produce.

During the AGM, Elon started that the long term demand would be probably 250 K, maybe 500 K, so this is more than twice the demand of the model s and x (about 100 k per year combined), such that the CT (2 motor, 3 motor, 4 motor), should be considerably less than the s and x, and probably 5 to 10 K above the model y which would make it 60-70 k for the 2 motor and 70-80 k for the 3 motor and who knows for the 4 motor.

A well balanced rwd would perform fine 95% of the time. It would only save about $5k. Tesla will sell all the higher trims they can first tho.

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[BeastSlayer]

Am a bit skeptical. But then Norway's sale of new cars are already 65% to 80% EV.

 

[cvalue13]

Am a bit skeptical. But then Norway's sale of new cars are already 65% to 80% EV.

not following what that has to do with the EIA saying 69% of vehicles will be TRUCKS

 

[ColoradoBlah]

A well balanced rwd would perform fine 95% of the time. It would only save about $5k. Tesla will sell all the higher trims they can first tho.

Yes, and be much more fun to drive. I put 100 down on an entry level model 4 years ago since it was a cheap just in case option…. 4 years later I highly doubt i’ll get one of these.

 

[anionic1]

Excellent.

I reckon there is a general train of thought which says 250,000 to 500,000 at a stretch per year.

imo they have plans to expand quickly well beyond that.

I will solely depend on Idra keeping up. It took them over 3 years to get the first two gigapresses to Tesla. Those two will limit production to 250,000. That why musk said they may ramp up to 500,000.

 

[Ebby Jones]

I believe there is NO way the 2019 posted pricing for the Cybertruck will be close to the 2024 CyberTruck price. That is 5 years, with a lot of inflation.

It seems like a fact the Single has been dropped. So $39K is gone.
We don't know if there will be a dual the first year. Maybe, maybe not.
Tesla had said they were going to build a Quad, and hold on the Tri-Motor, but now that may have changed that and are back to a Tri-Motor.

First Edition in 2024 .....best guess......$79,000 - $99,000+ and they will sell everyone they can build.

Don't forget, Tesla is now increasing, or decreasing, price based on demand. If the demand is high, they may raise the price to throttle the demand.

Steel, aluminum and many other commodity prices are about the same price today as they were in 2019. Check out "trading economics .com".

 

[cvalue13]

Steel, aluminum and many other commodity prices are about the same price today as they were in 2019. Check out "trading economics .com".

the dollar, and the cost of capital, aren’t the same

for the same reasons, even if the CT price is identical to 2019 reveal, it is a far more expensive vehicle today

it’s a pickle

 

[intimidator]

Steel, aluminum and many other commodity prices are about the same price today as they were in 2019. Check out "trading economics .com".

I am willing to guarantee you Tesla will not sell a $39,000 Single Motor or a $49,900 Dual Motor version.

I don't see how "First Edition" CyberTrucks won't be closer to $80,000, than $49,000.

I can't wait until Oct/Nov when Tesla should be annoucing the price of the INITIAL version.

 

[Crissa]

I am willing to guarantee you Tesla will not sell a $39,000 Single Motor or a $49,900 Dual Motor version.

I don't see how "First Edition" CyberTrucks won't be closer to $80,000, than $49,000.

I can't wait until Oct/Nov when Tesla should be annoucing the price of the INITIAL version.

Again, that's over a 60% price hike.

Of course it's going to be closer to 80 than 49, the Tri Motor was 69, which is already closer to 80 (eleven points or fifteen percent) than 49 (twenty points or over forty percent).

Anyone's belief is luckily not a constraint to Tesla's pricing.

-Crissa

 

[Jon Snow]

Ding Ding Ding.

YES, there are over a million reservations for the CyberTruck. But how many put down a $100 dollars when they saw the $39,000 price, or $49,000 price in November 2019? We have to assume A LOT.

If the initial version, with unknown specs and # of motors, is a "Platinum" version and is $89,000 plus FSD, etc, how many of those milion + will convert at that price?

Every car analysis on the planet will tell you, no matter what brand of vehicle it is (see Model X) there are limited buyers that will spend close to $100,000.

Elon has already warned us the CyberTruck will be expensive. Let's believe him.

Maybe someday in the future, 2030? (hey it took us 4 years to get this close) Tesla will be able to crank out less expensive versions, but I am not waiting for that to happen. 250,000 CyberTrucks sold in 2025 would be my guess. Even that is a lot if is over $80,000.

New gas/diesel trucks are also expensive and anyone paying attention to TCO will buy electric. There is no doubt in my mind at all that Tesla will sell as many as they can make.

 

[Arctic_White]

Does anyone think that CT will be priced higher than the F-150 Lightning?

The Lightning starts at $59K and tops out at $98K...

I do see the Cybertruck being closer to $80K than the initial $69K they mentioned but it should have more features than the Lightning.

 

[rudedawg78]

Does anyone think that CT will be priced higher than the F-150 Lightning?

The Lightning starts at $59K and tops out at $98K...

I do see the Cybertruck being closer to $80K than the initial $69K they mentioned but it should have more features than the Lightning.

The once and all FINAL Cybertruck introductory price thread | Tesla Cybertruck Forum & Owners Club - News & Discussions - Cybertruckownersclub.com

 

[PilotPete]

I think in a "normal" business environment, linking or relating the price of the CT to the current F150 prices would make sense. But from what I've observed, Tesla completely ignores what everyone else charges and then prices their product where they earn a good margin, and where they think the product will sell at the volumes that they want. Conversely, I think Ford DOES have to price their product in relation to Tesla. Tesla certainly appears to be in the "driver's seat" when it comes to establishing the market. This is the attraction of a ~$25k car. It makes it affordable to over 85% of the population if I recall.

Look at the 3 and the Y, not priced at all anywhere near the competition. And the model Y is the best selling car, period.

Look at the solar panels. They are priced a long stride from the competition. For my house and proposed system, Tesla was $60K, while the "competition" was $95k and $120k?!?!?! My decision didn't even take 2 seconds.

Look at SpaceX. They aren't even in the same neighborhood as everyone else when it comes to pricing. And as a result, they are winning contract after contract from everyone for launch services. They are setting the pricing for the market.

I think they will price the CT where they want it to sit in relation to their cost, their margin, and where they think the right percentage of people will be able to make it a purchase option.

 

[intimidator]

New gas/diesel trucks are also expensive and anyone paying attention to TCO will buy electric. There is no doubt in my mind at all that Tesla will sell as many as they can make.

If Tesla can make 100,000 in 2024 (no guarantee...but hopefully) they will sell all of them no matter the price.

In 2025 if they build 250,000, we will find out at what price people will tap out. By then Ford, GM and Dodge will also have EV pickups for sale. I just hope I can get my CyberTruck before I start collecting social security...

 

[firsttruck]

If Tesla can make 100,000 in 2024 (no guarantee...but hopefully) they will sell all of them no matter the price.

In 2025 if they build 250,000, we will find out at what price people will tap out. By then Ford, GM and Dodge will also have EV pickups for sale. I just hope I can get my CyberTruck before I start collecting social security...

Yes, legacy auto MIGHT technically have models (GM probably claiming 25 models) for sale in 2025, BUT:

Ford Gen2 T3 pickup will not even be in volume production in 2026 and probably barely released in 2025.

Based on GM poor history of volume production of EVs, I would NOT bet even $100 that GM will have volume production of their pickup in 2026.

Dodge/RAM volume shipping even in 2026, doubtful.

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