ARK Invest: What Will Demand Be For The Cybertruck?

[intimidator]

Yes, legacy auto MIGHT technically have models (GM probably claiming 25 models) for sale in 2025, BUT:

Ford Gen2 T3 pickup will not even be in volume production in 2026 and probably barely released in 2025.

Based on GM poor history of volume production of EVs, I would NOT bet even $100 that GM will have volume production of their pickup in 2026.

Dodge/RAM volume shipping even in 2026, doubtful.

Wait a minute, you mean we shouldn't believe the commercials from GM and Ram, and the flood of emails I get from both about their Electric pickups that are coming soon? LOL

A tangential question is...why the heck does GM, Ram, etc spend millions and millions on advertising EVs....that they can't deliver for another 2 years? Seriously. GM for example spent a lot of marketing money and TV advertising on both the Hummer and the Lyriq for about 2 years....and then they can only deliver about 2 a month. Makes no sense. What a waste of money.

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[jerhenderson]

Wait a minute, you mean we shouldn't believe the commercials from GM and Ram, and the flood of emails I get from both about their Electric pickups that are coming soon? LOL

A tangential question is...why the heck does GM, Ram, etc spend millions and millions on advertising EVs....that they can't deliver for another 2 years? Seriously. GM for example spent a lot of marketing money and TV advertising on both the Hummer and the Lyriq for about 2 years....and then they can only deliver about 2 a month. Makes no sense. What a waste of money.

they're trying to stop people from buying different models / brands.

 

[cvalue13]

Based on GM poor history of volume production of EVs, I would NOT bet even $100 that GM will have volume production of their pickup in 2026.

No doubt

and also, a bit interesting that this past quarter GM overtook Ford as the #2 producer in US

this resulted from a combo of GM increasing production, while Ford production fell (I believe the production freeze for that battery investigation was a material slow-down)

obviouslyeither way this is a distant #2

 

[TBONO]

Wait a minute, you mean we shouldn't believe the commercials from GM and Ram, and the flood of emails I get from both about their Electric pickups that are coming soon? LOL

A tangential question is...why the heck does GM, Ram, etc spend millions and millions on advertising EVs....that they can't deliver for another 2 years? Seriously. GM for example spent a lot of marketing money and TV advertising on both the Hummer and the Lyriq for about 2 years....and then they can only deliver about 2 a month. Makes no sense. What a waste of money.

Uh, well: This is not much different than Tesla
Cybertruck was announced in 2019
Other products, including the roadster, similar arguments, could be made

I mean specific to launching or stating a product before it will be available for some time, noted that the approach on marketing is different, where traditional auto manufactures have advertising versus Teslas approach

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Again, that's over a 60% price hike.

Of course it's going to be closer to 80 than 49, the Tri Motor was 69, which is already closer to 80 (eleven points or fifteen percent) than 49 (twenty points or over forty percent).

Anyone's belief is luckily not a constraint to Tesla's pricing.

-Crissa

It is amazing how many people push this point of view and how repeatable it is. It comes in waves, every month or so. You and others make the same arguments and it goes away for a month and then resurfaces again. Fortunately for all of us, October is getting close. For myself I will breath a sigh of relief when the release candidates show up because certification and pricing will surely follow closely.

 

[firsttruck]

Wait a minute, you mean we shouldn't believe the commercials from GM and Ram, and the flood of emails I get from both about their Electric pickups that are coming soon? LOL

A tangential question is...why the heck does GM, Ram, etc spend millions and millions on advertising EVs....that they can't deliver for another 2 years? Seriously. GM for example spent a lot of marketing money and TV advertising on both the Hummer and the Lyriq for about 2 years....and then they can only deliver about 2 a month.
.....

There are three whys.
3. Hoping to delay exodus of previous loyal GM customers to competition that does have EVs.
2. Hoping to delay GM stockholders from selling massive amounts of shares and price drop.

##### 1.
Mary Barra & other GM executives stock based compensation losing most of its value.

Makes no sense. What a waste of money.

Executives don't care. Not their money.

They just need to fool (delay) the public until the executives can sell enough of their stock.

 

[JollyRoger]

How it will actually pan out:

Email to south USA tri-motor reservation holders.

"Dear Cybertruck customer,

As Elon previously stated, Tesla will start releasing the Quad-motor version of the CT. We are now opening the configurator for you to upgrade - if you so wish. Delivery time Sep-Dec based on geography and time of order"

Duh, imo this is blatantly obvious. Further offers will extend to greater US and dual motor reservations, prices adjusted as we go.

Your "place in line" will not matter. As long as you go to the configurator and make the order.

Eventually in a few years we will see global deliveries of all trims.
Perhaps at prices approaching reveal pricing.

Bottom line is that you will pay $89420 for your 2023 truck. Unless you buy second hand for minimum 150k. Or you have patience and wait until production ramps and the appropriate trim-level appears at a promised affordable price.

Like you can now get the Model 3 for the 35k reveal price.

 

[intimidator]

Uh, well: This is not much different than Tesla
Cybertruck was announced in 2019
Other products, including the roadster, similar arguments, could be made

I mean specific to launching or stating a product before it will be available for some time, noted that the approach on marketing is different, where traditional auto manufactures have advertising versus Teslas approach

Tesla doesn’t run millions of dollars worth of commercials on TV. As we all know Tesla has spent zero on commercials.

 

[intimidator]

There are three whys.
3. Hoping to delay exodus of previous loyal GM customers to competition that does have EVs.
2. Hoping to delay GM stockholders from selling massive amounts of shares and price drop.

##### 1.
Mary Barra & other GM executives stock based compensation losing most of its value.



Executives don't care. Not their money.

They just need to fool (delay) the public until the executives can sell enough of their stock.

Best of Luck to Mary, and her stock options.

 

[TBONO]

Tesla doesn’t run millions of dollars worth of commercials on TV. As we all know Tesla has spent zero on commercials.

I made that point in my post when referencing their approach to marketing…

 

[cvalue13]

A tangential question is...why the heck does GM, Ram, etc spend millions and millions on advertising EVs....that they can't deliver for another 2 years? Seriously. GM for example spent a lot of marketing money and TV advertising on both the Hummer and the Lyriq for about 2 years....and then they can only deliver about 2 a month. Makes no sense. What a waste of money.

You’ve got the causation arrow backwards

These companies are producing these loss-leading products in the first place in large part in order to advertise them

The purpose of such advertising isn’t limited to just literal increase of unit sales on the products in the commercials to generate per-unit marginal dollars

The deeper purpose of producing these vehicles is instead to create business value (eg medium and long term growth), cultural value (eg indicate shared beliefs and create a favorable market environment in which to operate and influence) and broader consumer value (eg buyer’s attitudes and behaviors that effect brand perception, aspiration, loyalty, frequency, etc.)

And the above deeper effects aren’t directed only at customers, but also regulators, competitors, suppliers, employees, the broader hiring/talent pool, etc.

The products in these marketing campaigns were produced at all, in large part, so that they could be marketed for broader corporate value.

It’s funny how people bump into some fact they don’t understand, and jump to the conclusion that it’s everyone else who must be ignorant.

 

[davelloydbrown]

You’ve got the causation arrow backwards

These companies are producing these loss-leading products in the first place in large part in order to advertise them

The purpose of such advertising isn’t limited to just literal increase of unit sales on the products in the commercials to generate per-unit marginal dollars

The deeper purpose of producing these vehicles is instead to create business value (eg medium and long term growth), cultural value (eg indicate shared beliefs and create a favorable market environment in which to operate and influence) and broader consumer value (eg buyer’s attitudes and behaviors that effect brand perception, aspiration, loyalty, frequency, etc.)

And the above deeper effects aren’t directed only at customers, but also regulators, competitors, suppliers, employees, the broader hiring/talent pool, etc.

The products in these marketing campaigns were produced at all, in large part, so that they could be marketed for broader corporate value.

It’s funny how people bump into some fact they don’t understand, and jump to the conclusion that it’s everyone else who must be ignorant.

Spoken like a true advertising professional.

Full of lingo and bs to convince companies to spend big bucks on misinformation campaigns to try and trick consumers to spend their hard earned money on garbage.

 

[cvalue13]

Spoken like a true advertising professional.

Full of lingo and bs to convince companies to spend big bucks on misinformation campaigns to try and trick consumers to spend their hard earned money on garbage.

im neither an ad professional, nor do I take any position on whether companies who advertise are right for doing so

I only (and partially) explained their reasons for do so

If you want to disagree with their reasoning, feel free

that would be an advancement from what was going on before: disagreeing with what is not their reasoning

 

[Cyberostachu]

What Will Demand Be For The Cybertruck?

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/what-will-demand-be-for-the-cybertruck/

Analysts, forecasting agencies, and auto manufacturers once thought electric vehicles (EVs) would become little more than a niche product. Will they be wrong about the Cybertruck as well?

In ARK’s view, the low expectations[1] for Tesla’s Cybertruck are based on a blind spot. Today, most automakers fund the development and sales of unprofitable EVs with profits from their gas-powered truck sales. If the Cybertruck were to disrupt that profit center, traditional automakers could end up in trouble.

In ARK’s first year, 2014, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that long range electric vehicles would have little to no US market share in 2040. Last year, the market share of US EVs topped 5%[2] so, now, having increased its forecast each year, the EIA expects US EV market share to plateau at ~14% in 2040, as shown below. According to our research, global EV market share is likely to scale to 70%+ by 2027,[3] and the US will not be far behind.

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023, Based on data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2022); Irle 2022.


For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Forecasts may not be realized.

The EIA expects trucks to constitute 69% of all vehicles in the US by 2050, even though electric trucks will not gain traction beyond 10% share of the total, as shown below.

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023, based on data from EIA Annual Energy outlook 2022.

For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Forecasts may not be realized.

We disagree. In addition to 1.5 million existing Cybertruck reservations,[4] early Google Trends data suggest that the Cybertruck could be as mainstream as the Tesla Model Y. On April 2, 2023, just as Elon Musk tweeted that he was walking the Cybertruck production line,[5] the number of searches for the Cybertruck on Google exceeded those for the Model Y, as shown below. Notably, Cybertruck search volume originated in truck-loving geographies, potentially suggesting desire to buy.

Source: Google Trends 2023.

For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Forecasts may not be realized.

While sell-side analysts may be uncomfortable forecasting exponential EV growth, we believe it would be a mistake for them not to consider the implications Cybertruck success could have for traditional automakers.

I'm not surprised. I play golf with 80 guys in our association, I believe 80% don't much and many of those don't know anything about EV especially Cybertruck.

 

[Cyberostachu]

Ding Ding Ding.

YES, there are over a million reservations for the CyberTruck. But how many put down a $100 dollars when they saw the $39,000 price, or $49,000 price in November 2019? We have to assume A LOT.

If the initial version, with unknown specs and # of motors, is a "Platinum" version and is $89,000 plus FSD, etc, how many of those milion + will convert at that price?

Every car analysis on the planet will tell you, no matter what brand of vehicle it is (see Model X) there are limited buyers that will spend close to $100,000.

Elon has already warned us the CyberTruck will be expensive. Let's believe him.

Maybe someday in the future, 2030? (hey it took us 4 years to get this close) Tesla will be able to crank out less expensive versions, but I am not waiting for that to happen. 250,000 CyberTrucks sold in 2025 would be my guess. Even that is a lot if is over $80,000.

My personal budget is $80K or less. It will depend on the news at the time if I'll adjust my budget. I'm not first in line to receive the order anyway.

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