ARK Invest: What Will Demand Be For The Cybertruck?

[Crissa]

I'd like to add, that during that time the price of Oil dropped to lowest point in most of our lifetimes. It was probably cheaper to fill my PHEV Pacifica with gas and drive it than than plug it in and use it as an EV. BTW, we still plugged it in but I think we may have drove 1500 miles in 6 months. Why would anyone want to buy a new vehicle at a time that you're not hardly going to use it? So yes, EV sales went down for a short period.

Man, at 31¢ a kWh, a 4 mpkWh car would cost me maybe 10¢ a mile but a 31 mpg car (with the same performance) would still cost 12.5¢ a mile at $2 a gallon. Your Pacifica is on the other side of the inflection point, but only barely.

Purely a guess, but I do not expect full ramp in 2024.

My guessimate all along has been about 100,000 to 125,000 in 2024.

Thus with my November 2019 reservation, I don't expect to get an email to finalize my order until fall of 2025. Anything earlier would be a surprise and a bonus.

A full ramp by the end of 2024 would still produce that many.

-Crissa

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[charliemagpie]

Picking up your kids in an ICE car will be scorned upon just as much as having a smoke outside the school gate.

The inevitable dwindling fuel price will be welcomed by some, but within 10 years imo, range anxiety will switch to ICE drivers.

 

[kbolt]

Lightning was and won’t be the basis, nor Rivian, Hummer, or any other BEV pickup. Elon said so. Tesla is trying to disrupt the ICE pickup market, so if the prices of comparable ICE pickups have gone up then Tesla may change their pricing but they will still try to beat those prices because they want to convert ICE pickup owners to BEVs.

I thought I could go without a /s on the "Advanced Logic" because I thought I made it obviously far-fetched...

 

[Rutrow]

I thought I could go without a /s on the "Advanced Logic" because I thought I made it obviously far-fetched...

See: Poe's Law

I've been bit by it several times myself in this forum

 

[jerhenderson]

Ding Ding Ding.

YES, there are over a million reservations for the CyberTruck. But how many put down a $100 dollars when they saw the $39,000 price, or $49,000 price in November 2019? We have to assume A LOT.

If the initial version, with unknown specs and # of motors, is a "Platinum" version and is $89,000 plus FSD, etc, how many of those milion + will convert at that price?

Every car analysis on the planet will tell you, no matter what brand of vehicle it is (see Model X) there are limited buyers that will spend close to $100,000.

Elon has already warned us the CyberTruck will be expensive. Let's believe him.

Maybe someday in the future, 2030? (hey it took us 4 years to get this close) Tesla will be able to crank out less expensive versions, but I am not waiting for that to happen. 250,000 CyberTrucks sold in 2025 would be my guess. Even that is a lot if is over $80,000.

there were like 16% of reservations on the single motor CT..... so we know how many. the large majority of $100 down was on the higher trims.

 

[jerhenderson]

Hummer. Super Expensive. A Ford Lightning Lariat, expensive. A Rivian with extended batter, expensive.

Let's release pricing Elon! Will it be $89,000? Or only $69,000?

I really hope $ 69420 so we can have a chuckle.

 

[jerhenderson]

Picking up your kids in an ICE car will be scorned upon just as much as having a smoke outside the school gate.

The inevitable dwindling fuel price will be welcomed by some, but within 10 years imo, range anxiety will switch to ICE drivers.

why would fuel price dwindle when less is available or being investing in? if anything, I think it'll rise until it's abandoned.

 

[Crissa]

there were like 16% of reservations on the single motor CT..... so we know how many. the large majority of $100 down was on the higher trims.

It varies by when the snapshot was taken. But the market for actual trucks at $39K is much larger than the market for people who can drop $100 and wait five years for a truck.

So the information to take isn't 'how many took the lowest option' but 'how many took the next trim up'.

You can't have the higher option give a clear picture without the lower option existing.

-Crissa

 

[Greshnab]

We will know in about 3-4 months what the initial pricing will be.

I am okay with $80,000 for the Tri-Motor IF it has over 400 miles of range.

Range is the big unknown. Just because Tesla put it on the Specs back in 2019, does NOT mean they will be able to deliver a 500 mile range Tri-Motor CyberTruck.

There have been no major battery breakthroughs, so more range means way more weight, and way more expense. I am very curious to see what range will be offered.

I agree with you that we will know in 3-4 months.. however one of the points Elon made early on was he HATES it when a demo type of car is released with good specs/items and the release model doesn't come close to the demo....

SOoooo knowing how important range is.. I will be EXTREMELY surprised if the range is less than the stated ranges originally.

 

[Greshnab]

why would fuel price dwindle when less is available or being investing in? if anything, I think it'll rise until it's abandoned.

because the federal government and states will tax the heck out of gasoline .. in sales distribution storage etc...

the government is determined to tax us out of using gasoline.

 

[jerhenderson]

because the federal government and states will tax the heck out of gasoline .. in sales distribution storage etc...

the government is determined to tax us out of using gasoline.

yes. .. and so the price will rise.

 

[Arctic_White]

Man, at 31¢ a kWh, a 4 mpkWh car would cost me maybe 10¢ a mile but a 31 mpg car (with the same performance) would still cost 12.5¢ a mile at $2 a gallon. Your Pacifica is on the other side of the inflection point, but only barely.


A full ramp by the end of 2024 would still produce that many.

-Crissa

All this talk about ramping is pure speculation.

Here are some interesting facts:
- It took around 1 year for Austin to ramp Model Y production to 5K / week, or 250K per year
- We also know that CT doesn't require paint, which reduces the time
- We don't know for sure but CT might be more time-consuming to make, though it might not. Just because it's "complex" to make does not mean that it'll take longer.

My prediction, since we are all speculating here, is that we will get to a 250K production run-rate by the end of 2024.

I also seriously doubt that all CT will be $80K. Quad motor, Plaid? Sure. But a 300-mile truck, dual motor, at $50K'ish? That's a good value, IMO, and sales will reflect it.

 

[TBONO]

I agree with you that we will know in 3-4 months.. however one of the points Elon made early on was he HATES it when a demo type of car is released with good specs/items and the release model doesn't come close to the demo....

SOoooo knowing how important range is.. I will be EXTREMELY surprised if the range is less than the stated ranges originally.

If Hans‘s latest comments on a recent interview are indicative, It sounds like range expectations should be delivered upon.
he said something along the lines that the range will be good

regarding pricing: word from Tesla EM is pricing will be higher.

 

[cvalue13]

All this talk about ramping is pure speculation.

*goes on to insertadditional speculation*

I ain’t mad at it

but “speculation” is necessarily what we’re relegated to

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