Can Tesla produce an $80k Cybertruck?

[Crissa]

Remember the exact same thing has been said about Tesla for years.

This is not the same at all. There is a limited pool of buyers able to buy such an expensive thing! It's simple budgeting.

That's why Tesla needs to keep the price down.

1. Yes, he also said they were struggling to get their 4680 production costs down.
2. That they are currently at a cost disadvantage to current purchase prices of batteries,

#1 does not imply #2. Disadvantage compared to who?

Disadvantage compared to where they want to be? Yes. Compared to their competition in the Americas or Europe? No.

-Crissa

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[Cyberus]

Would anyone agree that more than 50% of FS owners can’t afford a 6 figure vehicle, but they did it anyway?

So, would Tesla need to get the vehicle cost down, or the payments down?
Could we assume that an EV manufacturer, would find a way to slow depreciation on their vehicles and afford them the option to offer longer term loans, bringing the payments down?

 

[txtravwill]

Don't forget to point out that Ford lost $135,000.00 on every electric vehicle that they sold last year. Who knows the figure for the other manufacturers.

Totally it's crazy for legacy makers investing. But they sell to many other cars, tons for F150s... Like 1 a minute, and those are 14%+ in profit margin. All the others cars are covering their EVs and keeping them overall profitable right now I guess.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

This is not the same at all. There is a limited pool of buyers able to buy such an expensive thing! It's simple budgeting.

That's why Tesla needs to keep the price down.


#1 does not imply #2. Disadvantage compared to who?

Disadvantage compared to where they want to be? Yes. Compared to their competition in the Americas or Europe? No.

-Crissa

I believe the 4680 by Tesla is higher than the cost from suppliers. They aim to reduce their own cost per unit soon is my understanding.....perhaps some % better than out sourced batteries. Wonder if the 'glut' of batteries out there has something to do with all this.

 

[CyberTW]

Would anyone agree that more than 50% of FS owners can’t afford a 6 figure vehicle, but they did it anyway?

So, would Tesla need to get the vehicle cost down, or the payments down?
Could we assume that an EV manufacturer, would find a way to slow depreciation on their vehicles and afford them the option to offer longer term loans, bringing the payments down?

This is quite possibly true… but most EVs (suvs/trucks) are priced poorly unlike Tesla.. Rivian R1T/R1S, Lightning, Silverado…. All cost way over 100k to make. They just price them to get people to stomach an expensive EV —- 75k is much better than 110k as the cybertruck is showing… but those other cars are losing money with little to no strategy to get them under 100k to make.. that’s the long game of Tesla
So to your point… people driving Lightnings and Rivian’s paid less, and probably wouldn’t pay 6figures for them, but they are putting their own car company out of business…

 

[jerhenderson]

The cyber truck is the very definition of a niche product. One that I waited 4 years for.

A truck isn't niche, unless you consider millions of trucks on the road as niche

 

[Giskard]

I believe the 4680 by Tesla is higher than the cost from suppliers. They aim to reduce their own cost per unit soon is my understanding.....perhaps some % better than out sourced batteries. Wonder if the 'glut' of batteries out there has something to do with all this.

Yes, Elon did mention this at their shareholder meeting. The current 4680 cost is less than they were paying elsewhere 2 years ago, but prices have fallen quite a bit since then. They expect to be at cost parity with current prices by the end of the year. I don’t think battery costs are a barrier to them selling an 80k CT profitably. It’s mainly scaling and ongoing cost optimization as they learn how to build it in increasing quantities.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

A truck isn't niche, unless you consider millions of trucks on the road as niche

Agreed!
29 CYBERTRUCKS were delivered in 'one shot' .....NOT very 'niche' from where l stand. Has that even happened before with anything in the 'Truck World'?
Also, were the buyers all treated to a slice of 'quiche' .....afterall, real CT Owners EAT Quiche!

 

[firsttruck]

I believe the 4680 by Tesla is higher than the cost from suppliers. They aim to reduce their own cost per unit soon is my understanding.....perhaps some % better than out sourced batteries.

Wonder if the 'glut' of batteries out there has something to do with all this.

The answer is YES the glut had something to do with it.

At the shareholder meeting Elon specifically said two things about 4680 costs.
1. Competitor prices were higher a year ago. Current 4680 prices would have been lower than competitor prices if the competitors had not lowered prices because of the glut.
2. Tesla expects to reduce 4680 costs more by the end of the year so that then 4680 will cost the same or lower than competitors.

 

[mbrockus]

At the current AWD ($79.9K) and Beast ($99.9k) base price, how many units need to be sold to cover development and capital expenditures?

 

[Jager]

The Cybertruck is presently a loss for Tesla. At $80K. At $100K. And at $120K.

The issue isn't price. It's volume. Until and unless Tesla can significantly scale production, they'll continue to lose money on every truck they sell.

The Model S was a loss for Tesla.

The Model X was a loss for Tesla.

The Roadster was a loss for Tesla.

The Model 3 is what ultimately saved them from a very close run-in with bankruptcy. And even that much-desired vehicle didn't tip them into the black until they achieved a volume of 5,000 cars/week. At the end of 2017, at a production rate of half that, they were staring at a very bleak future.

When the Cybertruck was announced in late 2019, its economics hinged mightily on the then-new 4680. Ten months later, at Battery Day, Tesla gave us the numbers that underpinned those assumptions.

The 4680 has, broadly, failed to live up to expectations. That failure, more than anything else, is the reason the truck finally unveiled six months ago cost so much more than originally announced; and, in the case of the Beast, has so much less range.

The 4680 has seen incremental improvements over the years. And, indeed, Tesla has targeted cost parity for its internal-production cells vis-a-vis its external suppliers by the end of this year (if not met, Musk has threatened to shut down the entire internal production of 4680's).

But keep in mind that hitting cost parity with third-party suppliers is not the same as hitting unit-cost and performance (like energy density) bogeys. Make no mistake, the 4680 - while today obviously being "good enough" - has been an unmitigated disaster.

Whether the Cybertruck ever is profitable depends upon Tesla getting their production volume to the magic number that only Musk and a handful of his senior lieutenants know. His (Musk's) "we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck" comment is telling.

The good news is that Ford sold over 700,000 F-series trucks last year. So the universe of buyers is there. But you're not gonna get there with a $100K Cybertruck.

You might, maybe, get there at $80K.

 

[ModelC]

Yet no other truck on the market comes with one

Back to HA’s point - the tonneau is so integral to the design

No other truck has this design and doesn’t promote the feature of being locked and durable, sort of like a giant ass trunk.

So yes no other truck comes with one, The CT is no other truck - it is a one an only. The reason most of us here wanted to get it.

 

[CyberTK1]

I'm accustomed to hauling longer items extending past the tailgate but the short bed length doesn't give you much to work with, even with the tailgate dropped.

You do know with the tailgate down the R1 bed length is 7'. That is very substantial.

 

[drift]

A truck isn't niche, unless you consider millions of trucks on the road as niche

When 2/3 of the truck market won't buy your truck because of the way it looks it becomes niche.

 

[Woodrick]

$80k+ truck buyers don't grow on trees. You want volume sales, you better find a way to build an affordable truck. If that tax incentivised CT doesn't materialize, sales will plummet.

Rivian is going down the shitter because not enough people can afford their cars despite selling at a loss.

Go look at the number of Ford Pickups that start in the high $70's BEFORE you add things.

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