Tinker71

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Do we know the current cost of the 4680 MY? If we did we could maybe say that.
Exactly 2020/21 was weird. What would the price of the Y be without the pandemic/chip shortages/stimulus spending? We don't know. I say 2022 because that was the plan then, we are of course talking mid 2023 comparisons now, but Tesla was thinking 2022 and its lineup then.

The planned advancement at battery day would have affected the Y as well. The structural pack, castings and battery cost of < $120?? per kWhr. Not all of this has materialized yet. Maybe when it does Tesla can simply say. "Our cost have dropped now we can sell it for less." No apology required to people that paid an extra $15k -18 months earlier. It is a different car.

People need to remember, the price of the CT always reflected all cost savings. Especially the battery savings. It wasn't the deleted paint that made it appear reasonable.

 

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I don't understand the constant pricing comparison to the Model Y... right now you can pay more for a Ford Explorer than a Ford F150... they are different vehicles in different segments trying to sell to different people.

The CT will most likely be higher than reveal prices, but I doubt the MY pricing will even be relevant to what they decide to price the CT. F150 lightning, Rivian, and Chevy's etruck pricing will play a much bigger role in determining CT pricing.
 

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They won't sell cars at 50% margins. It looks bad to consumers, but more importantly it looks bad to workers, even if they get shares. Elon would rather not have a union, and a sure way to get one is to have the corporation banking 50% off every sale.
 
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rr6013

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They won't sell cars at 50% margins. It looks bad to consumers, but more importantly it looks bad to workers, even if they get shares. Elon would rather not have a union, and a sure way to get one is to have the corporation banking 50% off every sale.
True…

A wise man in transportation, CCC Trucking, owns its category said getting 20% market is easy, 30% a little harder, 40% is too hard for one company.
The way that you get 80% marketshare is 20% here, 20% there with company2, another 20% company3 then 10%, 5%, 3%… compnay4,5,6…pretty soon it adds up!
 

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Tesla could have 10% of the truck market with 50% margins.

Or they could have 60%+ of the truck market with 20% - 30% margins.

The profits might look similar, but the latter case moves the entire industry forward where the former case just hollows out a slightly bigger niche.
 


charliemagpie

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Yes, but

It is not just a mathematical exercise lol Its a failure to think its just a matter of raising prices to increase profits, or lowering to make more sales.


Au contraire. raise prices and customers go elsewhere, lower prices and there may not be enough profits to pay your bills.. even if appealing, the customer count may be too low.

The equilibrium of the economy has already set the prices.

Tesla is an exception in this point of time. Rome eventually fell. The basics of business apply, not just the whim to turn the dial on the price gun.
 

Ogre

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It is not just a mathematical exercise lol Its a failure to think its just a matter of raising prices to increase profits, or lowering to make more sales.
This is more or the point I was trying to make in a nutshell.

Tesla wants **the truck market**. Not “premium trucks”, not “Supertrucks”, not “Luxury trucks”, the whole market. That is where Ford and GM make all of their profits. Supertrucks and luxury trucks are 2% of the market and maybe 10% of the profits. That’s not what Tesla wants. They want 80% of the profits. More to the point, they want the entire industry to move to electric. Moving the top 2-10% doesn’t move the industry.

Lots of people at all echelons of Tesla take their mission quite seriously.
 

charliemagpie

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This is more or the point I was trying to make in a nutshell.

Tesla wants **the truck market**. Not “premium trucks”, not “Supertrucks”, not “Luxury trucks”, the whole market. That is where Ford and GM make all of their profits. Supertrucks and luxury trucks are 2% of the market and maybe 10% of the profits. That’s not what Tesla wants. They want 80% of the profits. More to the point, they want the entire industry to move to electric. Moving the top 2-10% doesn’t move the industry.

Lots of people at all echelons of Tesla take their mission quite seriously.
Exactly
Tesla price increases have been incremental over the last 4 years.
House prices have also risen. etc

We have at times raised the prices to slow down the order rate.. That works.

We have not raised prices to profit take. That doesn't work.
(Only works for managers who wish to exceed KPI quickly, but are using built up goodwill for short sighted gains.)
 
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rr6013

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Tesla could have 10% of the truck market with 50% margins.

Or they could have 60%+ of the truck market with 20% - 30% margins.

The profits might look similar, but the latter case moves the entire industry forward where the former case just hollows out a slightly bigger niche.
The 50% claim argues that Tesla will accrue 50% share of the market with 50% profit at the end of the day. It implies it would be a fiduciary irresponsible act and inconceivable reason for Tesla to up and back away from economic opportunity by simply following a Pareto principle developed in 1896.

SpaceX conquered orbital flight dynamics to enable a launch cadence unmatched. Its first principles and organizing mission to provide multi-planetary future for humanity is the most successful, most affordable and best solution to getting there by putting an end to 1970’s rocket technology.

Tesla conquered BEV mass production with a launch cadence unmatched. Its first principles and organizing mission to halt the rise in CO2 greenhouse gas is the most successful, most affordable and best solution to stop transportation global emissions by killing 1880’s technology.

Historical precedent for the economics of technology favoring a duopoly emerging, is in-play(ala FORD::CHRY, MSFT::AAPL). Government policy favors rapid EV manufacture in the U.S. and abroad by offering tax offsets, supply chain credits, renewable fuel credits and development grants.

Analysis of Tesla cashflow, grant, credit and offsets in addition to holdings in JV, license and other non-transparent incomes add a %. Tesla collecting a % here, 10% there and a $40,000 pony-up in its Heavy Trucking segment on every semi begin to add-up. At the end of the day, Tesla are posting real profits!

Hidden percentages accrue to profit not margin. Tesla leading technology, production and models get the U.S. and other countries closer to halting GHG with every ICE vehicle it obsoletes.

1800’s thinking(Pareto), 1800’s inventions(ICE) and 50 y.o. engineers can’t stop Tesla massive growth, not even tried and worn out pricing! Because Tesla is making more profit than what you see on a Maloney sticker at the end of the day.

 

 
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