Tinker71

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Don't forget that on release the CT was already priced cheaper than the equivalent MY.

CT will be cheaper than MY. That alone gives you a ballpark.
You have to project the Y price forward to 2022 as well. Maybe they thought the price of the Y would actually drop by 2022? They didn't try to predict that in late 2019 so we don't know what the spread would have been or even if it was a consideration.

Pricing is a conundrum for Tesla. They are lucky they have a margin to play with. Many players don't.

What are the prices that will motivate the shareholders of Tesla to shift resources to 250,000 CT per year or more? That is what I want to know. If the price is too low they might be content with a very slow ramp ramp so only making 1000 per week by the end of 2023.

 

charliemagpie

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If Tesla had 1.5 million pre-orders, it would not be happy making 1000 per week if it could help it.

It would not be happy with 5000 per week.

We start with Model Y. Next year it's the CT. Makes sense.

I predict production will start before March, and will reach 8000 per week 12 months later.
 

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You have to project the Y price forward to 2022 as well. Maybe they thought the price of the Y would actually drop by 2022? They didn't try to predict that in late 2019 so we don't know what the spread would have been or even if it was a consideration.

Pricing is a conundrum for Tesla. They are lucky they have a margin to play with. Many players don't.

What are the prices that will motivate the shareholders of Tesla to shift resources to 250,000 CT per year or more? That is what I want to know. If the price is too low they might be content with a very slow ramp ramp so only making 1000 per week by the end of 2023.
Yep true.

Slow ramp will settle the hecklers a bit and give them more time to get supply pricing lowered. But I think a good portion of prices should of been locked in before the shortages started.

Overall, though I still don't see it going over MY. The model and production costs need to be significantly lower than a previous generation model. Unlike other ICE cars that charge $1k an extra inch of length, the size is not a metric, its battery, drivetrain and internals. I'd imagine GA MY will be cheaper to make than a M3 already.
 

Tinker71

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Yep true.

Slow ramp will settle the hecklers a bit and give them more time to get supply pricing lowered. But I think a good portion of prices should of been locked in before the shortages started.

Overall, though I still don't see it going over MY. The model and production costs need to be significantly lower than a previous generation model. Unlike other ICE cars that charge $1k an extra inch of length, the size is not a metric, its battery, drivetrain and internals. I'd imagine GA MY will be cheaper to make than a M3 already.
The mass of the CT, SS, tires etc. will definitely be more than the Y. While raw material might only represent 20% of the cost, the CT still has to overcome that. Then it has to overcome suspension travel, AWS, coil tonneau, power outlets, onboard compressor premiums.

The CT will cost more.
 
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rr6013

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Exactly. This is the overarching problem I keep pointing at all the time. Resouce allocation should not be by fiat currency, dictated by the whimsical and emotional hands of customers, who think "change" is included in a Iphone 14...🤢🤮🥴

It's only $100 more than the 13 for a reason as they keep selling those as well. What are the employees and engineers actually doing?? Let alone what is the company doing with it's profits? Mission to nowhere IMHO. Where's the Apple car anyway?

On the subject of software: All my PCs dual boot linux, I essentially only have to run Windows for CAD because there are no Linux equivalents. All my emails and documentation is on open source software running on a local linux home server and mirrored to a VPS. Now when I run my notebook on Linux I get twice the battery life and better performance.

Given the power consumption from personal computers worldwide wouldn't one good idea be to run more linux as a OS or get Microsoft (another rich legacy company going nowhere) to fix it. I truly wonder how much energy consumption could be reduced from a simple software patch.
On software as an ex-NeXT and ex-Apple developer, the over-reliance on Moore’s Law was an insult. Having learned to efficiently use 3k memory to run an OS, then write a compiler running on 3k it was asinine how Apple just crufted its software onto more Hz. - free.
SteveJobs penchant to write once and never revisit an app Apple produced was my biggest fault in SJ. Nothings changed after his passing at AAPL. Apple know that they own a dualopoly. Its that simple.
On the car, Apple aren’t car guys. They don’t have the temperament nor the moxie automobile demands. Jony Ive wasn’t a car guy.

iPod is their closest success model for Apple Car. They bought a music player they liked, then hacked into Apple form iconified the design and marketed an inspiration on free music - better than free $1 a song. You own it. That genius died a decade ago. But they’ll take a run at Apple Car with their brand, inter-connectivity, lifestyle and chip that is begging an eOS and a car to runaway with the victors spoils.

Which Apple would. It needs a new horse to ride, iPhone is getting lame. Elon will need every margin of profit to stay ahead of Apple if it pivots into automotive. Not because they are that much better, they have the branded lifestyle which immediately has a billion of Tesla prospective buyers. That’s what EM means when he uses MASSIVE. Tesla needs the cashflow to compete.
They’ll slap their brand on a box like they did iPod.
 


Crissa

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The mass of the CT, SS, tires etc. will definitely be more than the Y. While raw material might only represent 20% of the cost, the CT still has to overcome that. Then it has to overcome suspension travel, AWS, coil tonneau, power outlets, onboard compressor premiums.

The CT will cost more.
Tesla didn't think so when they launched the Cybertruck.

Why would that have changed?

-Crissa
 

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Tesla didn't think so when they launched the Cybertruck.

Why would that have changed?

-Crissa
They posted prices for the 2022 CT not the 2022 Y. I think they thought the manufacturer ing cost/price on the y would drop more.
 

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They posted prices for the 2022 CT not the 2022 Y. I think they thought the manufacturer ing cost/price on the y would drop more.
Yes, the 2022 price of the Cybertruck was lower than the 2020 price of the Model Y.

...And you think the 2023 Cybertruck is going to cost more than the Model Y why?

-Crissa
 

anionic1

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Only because the competition is so far behind and needs to charge so much just to not lose 50%. That why Tesla could aim for 50% and sell all of them for years. I do think the economy is in major correction territory so that might also help them keep their profits high.
 

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Only because the competition is so far behind and needs to charge so much just to not lose 50%. That why Tesla could aim for 50% and sell all of them for years. I do think the economy is in major correction territory so that might also help them keep their profits high.
Right now the legacy OEMs competition is selling 99.9% ICE trucks and talks about ramping EV volumes but instead is dragging that scaling out.

Tesla's goal is profit & transition transportation to EVs.

Based on historical ICE truck sales, number Cybertruck reservations and inflation thru 2024, there should be huge demand for Cybertrucks priced $50K-$65K.

If the demand is there, maximum total profit (not unit profit) is selling a gazillion Cybertrucks at about $60K average selling price (margin 20% ?) than 300K units annually at $75K (margin 50% ?).

The higher priced Cybertruck is over standard ICE trucks the longer & higher ICE truck sales volume will dominate.

I hope ICE truck sales will be crushed by 2030 with the declining start being clearly observably by early 2026.
 
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charliemagpie

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Tesla is expected to maximize shareholder return, it needs to do that today and tomorrow. It's not always about squeezing the most profit today, it's also about building.

Large volume turnover is the ambition.

It could make 7 billion and shock people, or make 6 billion and reasonable people may view the price point as fair.

It may seem a lot of money was lost.

For fun, take out a calculator and work out how much income 3TW generates by 2030.


1662973663826.png


btw, hardly anyone calculates this number into their share price forecast.
 

JBee

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The mass of the CT, SS, tires etc. will definitely be more than the Y. While raw material might only represent 20% of the cost, the CT still has to overcome that. Then it has to overcome suspension travel, AWS, coil tonneau, power outlets, onboard compressor premiums.

The CT will cost more.
The mass will be 10-20% more, but the mass itself will be cheaper to make and won't be painted nor will there be many parts to assemble. Have a look through the Monroe teardown videos and take notice of how few parts there are to manufacture and assemble. GA MY is halfway down the same path, but still has more complicated componentry .

When they first announced CT would come in blank SS they were talking about savings of $500m of capex alone for the paint shop, that's $1000 of just capex saved for the first 500,000 CTs. And that doesn't include the paint they won't use, or the robot maintenance, touch up crew, quality control, floor space and HVAC etc etc. The paint alone costs more than that by itself.

The point that I'm trying to make is that I think we are seriously underestimating the principle by which CT is being built. A lot more emphasis has been put on the manufacturing side after the whole M3 debacle, rather than on the output of the "product" the CT.
 

JBee

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They posted prices for the 2022 CT not the 2022 Y. I think they thought the manufacturer ing cost/price on the y would drop more.
Do we know the current cost of the 4680 MY? If we did we could maybe say that.
 

charliemagpie

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And..

We are building the machine that builds the machine

Possibly the very first vehicle Tesla will build without having its roots in legacy soil.

And glue
And Robots
 

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As a stockholder I want them to get 50% margins. That would be great.

As a Cybertruck reservation holder I would be completely pissed to pay 50% mark up over cost to produce when competitors make less than 10% (ignoring stealership markups). Unless, the price is competitive with other options available then margin doesn't matter as a consumer.

I don't want to pay $20k more than an F150 or Rivian just so they can make higher margins.
Bingo! Finally someone gets it. And demand will still be there 100%. The cheapest Lightning w/ extended range is over $80k. Same pricing as rivian, and gm. And we can forget about the hummer too. Tesla will have no problem selling these trucks at ~$75k all day. Look at how much current gas trucks are selling for. Look at the fuel savings a year with an EV, and additional utility over gas it's a no Brainer.

 

 
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