CT vs Y price differential

[Ogre]

Interesting and fascinating points you raised.

I still feel that Tesla would not want to introduce the CT at under $80K initially simply because the demand is already there. I feel like the first production will be $100K with a $50K much cheaper truck to be launched later.

You think $80K and $60K.
I'm saying $100K and $50K.

Let's see which one of us is right. LOL.

Try as they might, Tesla is capped because of supply constraints. Even if Tesla wanted to, they are physically unable to make the cars right now. It will take time to scale up. Because of this reason alone, Tesla is likely to keep a hefty profit margin for the first few years of CT. This profit will be redirected towards building more Giga Factories in order to hit that 20M mark by 2030.

I agree with you on that front. I just think CTs won't be as cheap as you think, initially.

I can see a $100k Plaid model, particularly if they launch something else at the same time or very shortly after.

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[WA-CyberDriver]

Top end bragging rights is big time advertising. By your logic they might as well stop producing sx Plaid versions.

Tesla doesn't need to advertise. It just does what it does very well and people (like us) seek out the information.

 

[Tinker71]

You mean the S/X models which Musk said they only keep around for sentimental reasons?

Tesla has bragging rights with the Model S and soon Roadster. They don’t need or care about being the fastest/ highest spec’d everything. They let the Lucid take the win on range and the Taycan is faster than the Model Y.

If Tesla shipped the tri motor Cybertruck as it was specc’d at launch, it would be the best truck on the market in every way that matters ***FOR TRUCKS***. Just adding quad motors and 4 wheel steering will seal the deal.

Nobody is going to give a shit if the Cybertruck is 0.2 seconds slower to 60MPH.

I think Elon wants a segment leader across the board. The Tycan shouldn't be compared to Y. Lucid has range over S but it is not a clear segment winner over S especially considering Plaid. And yes some people will give a shit if the ct is slower.

 

[Ogre]

I think Elon wants a segment leader across the board. The Tycan shouldn't be compared to Y. Lucid has range over S but it is not a clear segment winner over S especially considering Plaid. And yes some people will give a shit if the ct is slower.

Turns out I was wrong. It’s not 0.2 seconds slower to 60MPH. It’s 0.1 seconds faster than the Hummer and the R1T. (F150 is “Much” slower) So … I guess we just inflation adjust the tri motor and call it good after all.

 

[Sirfun]

Turns out I was wrong. It’s not 0.2 seconds slower to 60MPH. It’s 0.1 seconds faster than the Hummer and the R1T. (F150 is “Much” slower) So … I guess we just inflation adjust the tri motor and call it good after all.

Actually the R1T is faster that the Hummer EV and they both are limited on top speed (for good reason in my book). Here's a drag race that's a fun video to watch.

 

[JBee]

CT will only come in quad motor so it will be faster than both anyway. Motor output is just a software variable away...

The real limiting factor will be tyres and grip not HP.

 

[Macgyverfever]

All I know is A) Elon (and Franz for that matter) have re-iterated how amazing the CT will be (and I agree - I digress) and that it B) will be well worth the wait.

The first choice makes me think 'showoff model'' available only with all the bells and whistles (B-A-W.. that's right damnit I overrode the big ass windshield acronym!) Second choice makes me think mass production edition (MPE) alongside the BAW edition.

If they don't do both at the same time (which I think they should because 4 years IS A LONG - MF'ing - TIME), I'm thinking choice A simply because otherwise 1) the CT will become Tesla's new re-sale nightmare and would be harder to re-sell a 120K truck for more than asking vs an 80k truck (not a price prediction btw - just illustrating a point) and 2) the Y has the battery flexibility to adopt m3p technology whereas CT is all 4680 and is thus more battery/production constrained for obvious reasons.

The above makes me think btw they'll probably add a cheaper m3p model Y edition to choose from rather than drop their long range/performance price (not sure if m3p can handle fast charging like the 2170/4680 cells can )

 

[happy intruder]

Me too. My Y is a stop gap until the truck. I don't need a truck, but the CT is so damn cool I want one. Looking forward to going bush a bit with the truck.

The Y is amazing, astounding car. I've done a few decent road trips and wow it's an easy car to drive long distances.

The CT will be an evolution on the Y in some ways, at least the software, FSD tech etc. so I'm looking forward to how amazing it will be.

I too like the Y but wish the drivers seat was a little longer.....hits my legs in the wrong place causing some cramping pain.....

 

[happy intruder]

Everyone keeps thinking about this in very short terms. “Tesla is going to maximize profits…” but that only works for about a year before demand for $100k trucks falls off a cliff. Elon makes plans for 10 years. He’s not worried about profit for the next 2 quarters. Look at Tesla’s income statement. They aren’t worried about making a few million more in the next couple quarters. Think long term.

Elon has been banging this drum for the past 3 earnings calls and during the annual shareholders meeting. They are targeting more than 50% growth. By year end 2022, Tesla’s run rate will be 2m vehicles per year. That means to sustain their current growth rate they need to get capacity for 1m additional vehicles per year by year end 2023. **AND** capacity for 1.5m additional vehicles in 2024.

That’s the number Elon is looking at. How do they go from a run rate of 1m vehicles a year in 2021 to a run rate of 4.5m vehicles per year at the end of in 2024. A $130k hypertruck might sell 30-50k trucks per year. That isn’t even interesting in this context. An $80k truck with 500 miles range? Yeah, that’s going to post some serious numbers. A $60k truck with 300 miles range? Off the charts.

Another number Musk dropped at the annual shareholders meeting: 20m vehicles per year by 2030.

These are the numbers that Musk is thinking about. I seriously doubt Musk is investing more than 2 seconds of his time over any new vehicles (or trims) which will sell fewer than 100k units per year.

good points but I have a thought.......people are always discussing RANGE......500 mile range.......but what I dont see too much is the kW/Hr usage......currently I am usage is 248 kWhr per mile......that's ~ 4miles per kWhr......my range currently is 379 miles at 100%.......the CT will certainly use a lot more.....some say 375-450 depending on whether or not you are towing.......so a dual motor with only 300 miles range does not seen to practical.....did I miss something.......

 

[Sirfun]

good points but I have a thought.......people are always discussing RANGE......500 mile range.......but what I dont see too much is the kW/Hr usage......currently I am usage is 248 kWhr per mile......that's ~ 4miles per kWhr......my range currently is 379 miles at 100%.......the CT will certainly use a lot more.....some say 375-450 depending on whether or not you are towing.......so a dual motor with only 300 miles range does not seen to practical.....did I miss something.......

Practical is a relative term. It really depends on the end user. There are lots of people who can get by with 100 miles range. The other thing to think about is that Tesla has been talking about increasing charging speeds for years. IF you could get 200 miles of range in 15 minutes, that would do wonders.

 

[ED_SFO]

CT will only come in quad motor so it will be faster than both anyway. Motor output is just a software variable away...

The real limiting factor will be tyres and grip not HP.

Are u thinking they will make only quad motor trucks then software lock them ?

Pretty sure 4 motors cost more than two motors. Would be a waste of resources to do it this way...would be simpler yes but not to make the truck more affordable.

 

[JBee]

Are u thinking they will make only quad motor trucks then software lock them ?

Pretty sure 4 motors cost more than two motors. Would be a waste of resources to do it this way...would be simpler yes but not to make the truck more affordable.

I don't think there will ever be a single or tri motor at all if they do a QM. They will all be QM 4Wd and 4WS. You need a different rear and front if they do SM and TM, and EM said we'll get a QM instead of TM. The Dual, if it happens at all, will be rear wheel drive only and leave out the front assembly. Motors will be smaller overall using CF wrap and higher RPM for same if not better power.

The motor cost is not as high as people predict, see this post for more:

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...prediction-agree-or-disagree.5458/post-110967

 

[Bill906]

...currently I am usage is 248 kWhr per mile...

Pretty sure you want to remove the k in kWh, or add a decimal point in front of the 248.

 

[ED_SFO]

I don't think there will ever be a single or tri motor at all if they do a QM. They will all be QM 4Wd and 4WS. You need a different rear and front if they do SM and TM, and EM said we'll get a QM instead of TM. The Dual, if it happens at all, will be rear wheel drive only and leave out the front assembly. Motors will be smaller overall using CF wrap and higher RPM for same if not better power.

The motor cost is not as high as people predict, see this post for more:

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...prediction-agree-or-disagree.5458/post-110967

Actually you can have a casting that has both attach points for either a dual motor in the rear or single motor in the rear just like the front. The motor assemblies are premade, so which ever order comes thru the line they can install either single motor per axle or dual motor per axle...or even dual in the rear then single in the front. For economy of scale savings their casting could accommodate brand new motors or use current supply that's just has new housings to fit their packaging constraints. Tri-motor could be plaid rear assembly and MYP rear motor in the front. Quad could be reworked dual plaid assemblies. Dual which they will eventually make could be dual MYP rear motors for CT front and back. Main thing is that casting can be made very configurable with bolt point all built in. Elon for sure would've planned for this and not make 2 separate castings for different type of motor configurations. Just what makes sense to me.

 

[happy intruder]

Pretty sure you want to remove the k in kWh, or add a decimal point in front of the 248.

I never was any good at math or metrics.......I just used the slip-stick

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