Cybertruck launch delayed again - Per AutoForecast Solutions - until Oct 2023

[Jhodgesatmb]

When Elon says a production number, unless it's deliveri, it's the run rate, or how much of the factory capacity is being used.

So 150k in 2023 may mean a run rate of 150k: at some point in the year they make nearly 3k in a week.

-Crissa

I just ran the video of his presentation at Cyber Rodeo and I cannot find where he said volume production in 2023. Do you, or anyone here, know where and when he said that (link and time stamp welcome)?

Re: what you said about run rate, 3K/week by the end of the year...starting at closer to 100/week (that seems to be about where they were earlier in April with the MY), do you think they can make 100K by the end of the year? I know you cannot say with much confidence, but if the CT really is easier to make, then shouldn't they be able to ramp faster?

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[Ogre]

I just ran the video of his presentation at Cyber Rodeo and I cannot find where he said volume production in 2023. Do you, or anyone here, know where and when he said that (link and time stamp welcome)?

Re: what you said about run rate, 3K/week by the end of the year...starting at closer to 100/week (that seems to be about where they were earlier in April with the MY), do you think they can make 100K by the end of the year? I know you cannot say with much confidence, but if the CT really is easier to make, then shouldn't they be able to ramp faster?

Q 1 2022 earnings call

So let’s see. We’re also working on a new vehicle that I alluded to at the Giga Texas opening, which is a dedicated robo-taxi that’s highly optimized for autonomy, meaning it would not have steering wheel or pedals. And there are a number of other innovations around it that I think are quite exciting. But it’s fundamentally optimized for … It’s trying to achieve the lowest fully considered cost per mile or cost per kilometer, accounting everything. And so it’s, I think going to be a very powerful product. Where we aspire to reach volume production of that in 2024. So I think that really will be a massive driver of Tesla’s growth. And we remain on track to reach volume production of the Cyber Truck next year.

https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/tesla-q1-earnings-call-2022-transcript

Scroll to 6:35 to see in context.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Q 1 2022 earnings call



https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/tesla-q1-earnings-call-2022-transcript

Scroll to 6:35 to see in context.

Thank you very much!

 

[Crissa]

First full year of production Tesla Model 3 was >140k total delivered. Why wouldn't Cybertruck make that?

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

First full year of production Tesla Model 3 was >140k total delivered. Why wouldn't Cybertruck make that?

-Crissa

I’ve been kind of assuming 100k just as a conservative estimate.

Would not surprise me too much to see it do better than that.

Amusing that Model 3 had “Production Hell”…. But has any other EV maker had a stronger launch year?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

First full year of production Tesla Model 3 was >140k total delivered. Why wouldn't Cybertruck make that?

-Crissa

Agreed. It depends on when they actually start production. If you think about it, they go right from themachine shop (folding, stamping, and welding) to drivetrain and final assembly. They should be able to beat any other first year production easily.

 

[Sirfun]

I’ve been kind of assuming 100k just as a conservative estimate.

Would not surprise me too much to see it do better than that.

Amusing that Model 3 had “Production Hell”…. But has any other EV maker had a stronger launch year?

I looked up the 65 Mustang and got this:

A total of 559,451 Mustangs were produced for the 1965 model year. The hardtop was the big seller in 1965 with 410,260 units sold, with convertible and fastback body style both in the mid 70k unit mark.

Come on Cybertruck!!!! Tesla can beat those numbers, that was over 55 years ago.

 

[Ogre]

I looked up the 65 Mustang and got this:

A total of 559,451 Mustangs were produced for the 1965 model year. The hardtop was the big seller in 1965 with 410,260 units sold, with convertible and fastback body style both in the mid 70k unit mark.

Come on Cybertruck!!!! Tesla can beat those numbers, that was over 55 years ago.

Oh man if Tesla hit even 200k in the first year it would be awesome. Heads would explode.

 

[Crissa]

I looked up the 65 Mustang and got this:

A total of 559,451 Mustangs were produced for the 1965 model year. The hardtop was the big seller in 1965 with 410,260 units sold, with convertible and fastback body style both in the mid 70k unit mark.

Come on Cybertruck!!!! Tesla can beat those numbers, that was over 55 years ago.

Those could not have been good cars o-o

Are these numbers right? Only like 8 million cars were sold in the US in 1965... 16% were mustangs?

-Crissa

 

[Cybr on]

First full year of production Tesla Model 3 was >140k total delivered. Why wouldn't Cybertruck make that?

-Crissa

I was thinking more as well. Like 200k since there will be no paint. Is this unreasonable?

 

[Ogre]

I was thinking more as well. Like 200k since there will be no paint. Is this unreasonable?

I think 200k is possible. My feeling on the Cybertruck is Tesla is laser focused on high volume production and their actual goals are much higher than the 250k Musk has said. But to get there they will be developing new manufacturing technologies which will require more troubleshooting than using tried and true techniques.

For me anyhow, I plug in 100k because I’m fairly confident they can hit that number. Until they prove out their new production line it’s hard to say how quickly they will ramp up.

 

[JBee]

What is main limiting factor for CT production? Casting will need some dialing in but is now becoming a known quantity with MY production. Batteries and structural pack too. Drivetrain using CF wrapped motors etc also a given. Interior etc also. Chip shortage is a supplier problem not a manufacturer problem, electrical, even with one wire comms also not new, as are many other car parts.

My main concern is folding and fabricating the SS body. We haven't seen any capability for that yet, let alone mass production or fit and finish. Even the prototypes haven't got the rippling straightened out yet. I think that will be what limits numbers. I'm also wondering if some of that production will be offsite to keep up with line assembly speeds.

 

[Sirfun]

Those could not have been good cars o-o

Are these numbers right? Only like 8 million cars were sold in the US in 1965... 16% were mustangs?

-Crissa

If there were 8 million sold wouldn't 800K be 10%. 559,451 is actually 6.99% of 8 million. In the 60's it did feel like about 1 in 10 cars were Mustangs. And actually, it felt like another 10% were VW's.

I lived in So. Cal. So it could have been different in other parts of the US.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I was thinking more as well. Like 200k since there will be no paint. Is this unreasonable?

Not to me (but that is 70% hopeful thinking and 30% logic)!

 

[Sirfun]

Those could not have been good cars o-o

Are these numbers right? Only like 8 million cars were sold in the US in 1965... 16% were mustangs?

-Crissa

Here's an interesting article about the year 1965 in cars.
https://www.macsmotorcitygarage.com/the-year-in-cars-1965/
In the article, they say there were 1 million Mustang produced in the first 18 months.

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