Cybertruck Production Per Year for X IDRA 9T at Giga Texas

[Richard V.]

Cybertruck Production Per Year for X IDRA 9T?
I WAS working on the numbers., but I am having too much problems with Excel.

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[Jhodgesatmb]

Just remember that what IDRA publishes as the number of castings per year is what they predict it could produce when fully ramped. I am not sure whether Tesla has ever ramped any of their gigapresses to IDRA's numbers. I would expect Tesla to start making the castings as soon as possible and to stockpile them for production and slowly ramp up what they can produce. This should especially be the case for the 9K ton gigapresses since they have never been produced before, whereas a new 6K ton gigapress is more or less a known quantity by now. My guess is that if they can produce 300-400 per day by the end of 2023 they might be able to hit a 150K CT run rate in that same timeframe. Of course, it all depends on when they receive the damn gigapresses and how long it takes to get them assembled and tested.

 

[CyberGus]

There are 8760 hours in a year. With a cycle time of 2 minutes, they can make 30 castings per hour, or 262,800 per year. Of course, they won't run the machine 24/7, and I'm guessing on the 2 minutes (I think the 6KT casts take 90 seconds).

 

[greggertruck]

I'd take whatever number forecasted, cut it in half, be surprised hard to determine. I think some aspects of casting are in fact still being learned even!

 

[Crissa]

We have estimates from the 6k machines, which will be similar, but probably not exactly the same.

Using Model Y numbers, a second machine means they're aiming for a 450k run speed in the next two years.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

Two machines will be for 250k as Tesla has guided.

 

[hridge2020]

Here's how matchbox made their cars. (Diecast) Tesla Future for full body car manufacturing?

MatchBox Manufacturing

 

[Richard V.]

Just remember that what IDRA publishes as the number of castings per year is what they predict it could produce when fully ramped. I am not sure whether Tesla has ever ramped any of their gigapresses to IDRA's numbers. I would expect Tesla to start making the castings as soon as possible and to stockpile them for production and slowly ramp up what they can produce. This should especially be the case for the 9K ton gigapresses since they have never been produced before, whereas a new 6K ton gigapress is more or less a known quantity by now. My guess is that if they can produce 300-400 per day by the end of 2023 they might be able to hit a 150K CT run rate in that same timeframe. Of course, it all depends on when they receive the damn gigapresses and how long it takes to get them assembled and tested.

I wanted to create a table from 1 min to 30 mins casting/cleaning time for X 9K IDRA machines working near 24/7 at the same time. If the more correct numbers are 300-400 casting per machine what is that total production number for a year? "Clean" casting time and the number of IDRA9T will be key.

 

[TyPope]

What if that second casting machine is for the Front casting? Has anyone at Tesla said they can cast a front end heavy duty enough for the Cybertruck? Have any been produced? Did we not see the practice castings?

I think they'll use 2 9k ton presses on one single line of CT production. If the cycle time of the slowest process on the line is 90 seconds, it'll really limit production.

Here's how we figured out the GM assembly line in Shreveport, Louisiana:
1. It took 54 seconds per vehicle on each station (some stations took longer so we doubled the machines so 2 vehicles could be getting the same thing done at the same time... basically made the station twice as long and put 2 teams on it so that they effectively had 108 minutes to finish their task). We could run the line at a speed of 52 seconds per Chevy S10 (or Isuzu Hombre), but we never ran it that fast as far as I know.
2. We also planned on 50 weeks of up-time with 2 weeks to allow for annual change-over.
3. Maintenance was done during a 3rd shift when the line wasn't running.

So,
1 year = 50 weeks = 350 days.
Each day of 2 shifts = 16 hours of line running time.
16 hours = 960 minutes = 57,600 seconds
57,600 seconds divided by the cycle time (someone said 90 seconds per 9K ton press) = 640 Cybertrucks per day.
640 Cybertrucks per day x 350 days a year = 224,000 Cybertrucks per year.

Obviously, if you doubled the number of Presses AND the rest of the line could run at, say, 55 seconds, GigaTexas would be able to make 1,047 Cybertrucks per day, or 366,545 per year.

Basically, you have 28,800 seconds per shift, and it took us 54 seconds to make a truck. Now, maybe things have gotten faster but I'd bet not. People can only move so fast, and EVERY station has to be done within the cycle time.

 

[Richard V.]

Can we get some real production numbers (predictions). I feel like a kid in a candy store where my both my parents are being ignored...

Nov 2019! 9T IDRAs? are moving in Giga Texas. Any more details?

 

[charliemagpie]

Get ready for a full die-cast body…

Considering Elon's vision, and after seeing that Matchbox Video, I can't see Tesla making the 'model 2' any other way… and he said it's coming in 2024 !!1

Instead of welding… Robots will just buffer the rough edges where needed.

If the 6T was a disruptor, the Die-cast would be a game changer.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

We have estimates from the 6k machines, which will be similar, but probably not exactly the same.

Using Model Y numbers, a second machine means they're aiming for a 450k run speed in the next two years.

-Crissa

Do you think they now expect to make more than the 250K/year that they announced last year?

 

[Qball]

We have estimates from the 6k machines, which will be similar, but probably not exactly the same.

Using Model Y numbers, a second machine means they're aiming for a 450k run speed in the next two years.

-Crissa

At 450k run rate and ramp time of unbelievably short 6 months which means at best there will be about 100k CT on the road by this time next year. Then about 3 years to clear the back log without a single new order! Even if they break ground for another factory tomorrow morning it would take 2 years before another CT added to production rate… good thing I ordered mine early! Muhahahahaha

 

[Crissa]

Do you think they now expect to make more than the 250K/year that they announced last year?

They had better, reservations show a demand higher than that.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Musk said they were planning on producing at least 250k/ year.

That’s consistent with my guesstimate of a pair of gigapresses production. Similar to above guesses.

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