Cybertruck timeline schedule prediction -- Agree or Disagree?

[firsttruck]

it would be quit difficult to do this to a Cybertruck

Safe to assume no exoskeleton here.

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Voncile Hill and her husband Melvin Hill were killed when their 2002 Ford Super Duty F-250 pickup flipped over from a blown tire in 2014

Jim Butler Jr., the attorney who won the verdict said "They might as well have been in a convertible,"

Ford hit with $1.7 billion verdict for F-series pickup roof collapse that killed couple
By Chris Isidore, CNN Business
August 22, 2022
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/22/business/ford-1-7-billion-dollar-verdict/index.html


.....
The jury appeared to endorse the plaintiff's arguments that Ford knew of the problem years before the fatal crash, acted slowly to correct it and that other deaths have resulted from the same design flaw.

Evidence presented in the case showed that the F-250 pickups made in the 17 model years prior to 2017 (2000 - 2016) all pose a risk to drivers and passengers in cases of a rollover, said Jim Butler Jr., the attorney who won the verdict. He said 5.2 million trucks have been built with the same faulty roof.

.....
The punitive damages were awarded because Ford knew well in advance of the 2014 crash that it had a problem with the roof, Butler said. He said Ford's engineers had already designed a safer roof, but the automaker did not move immediately to install it on the trucks. "Long before the Hills were killed, Ford was on notice from their own engineers, own crash tests and dozens of accidents that people were being killed, and it did nothing," Butler said.

.....
And it wasn't a change in the NHTSA standard, but potential pickup buyers doing research on the vehicle's safety record that finally prompted Ford to put a stronger roof on both the F-150 and F-250, according to Butler. Butler said evidence in the case clearly showed that the Hills would have survived the crash if the roof of the cab had not collapsed on them.

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[Crissa]

This frame design makes the vehicle stronger and able to perform heavy-duty tasks.

I know you're just quoting this, but I keep hearing this, but there is never any supporting evidence for this statement. Literally, there's never any support for this. It's stated as a tautology.

I've heard so many time 'The Cybertruck isn't a truck because unlike a truck it doesn't have a truck frame!'.

When trucks were invented, they used a ladder frame because that's the technology we had for cars. Cars used a ladder frame. Cars abandoned the ladder frame because a unibody is stronger. So why do so many think that the ladder frame is stronger? It's strong in a certain way, sure, and if you're pushing and pulling on a single point that concentrated structure is useful... but there's no reason you can't build a unibody that's stronger. Or a hitch method that uses more leverage to avoid being a single point against the frame.

It's exactly like saying the strongest kind of bridge is stressed-beam without ever considering a truss bridge or a suspension bridge or any of the other kinds of bridges ever!

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

I know you're just quoting this, but I keep hearing this, but there is never any supporting evidence for this statement. Literally, there's never any support for this. It's stated as a tautology.

I've heard so many time 'The Cybertruck isn't a truck because unlike a truck it doesn't have a truck frame!'.

When trucks were invented, they used a ladder frame because that's the technology we had for cars. Cars used a ladder frame. Cars abandoned the ladder frame because a unibody is stronger. So why do so many think that the ladder frame is stronger? It's strong in a certain way, sure, and if you're pushing and pulling on a single point that concentrated structure is useful... but there's no reason you can't build a unibody that's stronger. Or a hitch method that uses more leverage to avoid being a single point against the frame.

It's exactly like saying the strongest kind of bridge is stressed-beam without ever considering a truss bridge or a suspension bridge or any of the other kinds of bridges ever!

-Crissa

Correct, I was just quoting

I had already said in previous comment,
"Just like Tesla cars are safest cars in market, Cybertruck will probable be safest truck in the market"

Based on Tesla's past history of structural design for passenger safety and especially in cases of roof rollover I expect Tesla will ensure Cybertruck performs exceptionally well in a rollover situation whether Cybertruck used exoskeleton or not.

.

 

[charliemagpie]

Not only would the angled roof perform better than a flat surface, also, initial impact I think would tend to pivot the car and absorb a fair bit of force before further damage.

 

[rr6013]

the angled roof perform better than a flat surface, also, initial impact I think would tend to pivot the car and absorb a fair bit of force

Cybertruck will be the stiffest the competition will ever see. Tesla have its work cutout attenuating joust, jolt, vibration and shock transfer into the passenger compartment. Its one nuisance I’ve accepted as an early Cybertruck adopter. Gen2,3, etc…will get quieter, softer and exoskeleton just as stiff; as engineering dials-into its nuances.

After casting/structural battery combo are integrated into a 30X 3mm cold rolled steel exoskeletal, deflection, crumple and engineered pressure buckle will be the “only” absorption other than side impact.

Tesla might have engineered the roof peak to act as a natural initial-impact force absorber, bending and buckling upward. That’s a patent!

 

[Rix]

Well, there's no battery that doesn't start degrading out the door.

The point of the million mile battery is that it retains some portion longer, usually the mark is at 80%.

And I doubt they'll make that claim until there's years' of testing.

-Crissa

That is true, I was being a little facetious. About 2 years ago, when Tesla announced a new chemistry that could yield a "million mile" battery, I wanted to know what criteria was Tesla using. Was it based on 50,000 miles a year for 20 years? Or 100,000 miles for 10 years. Don't quote me on this next part as I cant recall where, but it seems like the research I ultimately found was the new battery was expected to degrade at half the rate as the then existing chemistries. I never did learn if it was the 4680 they were talking about, or a new lithium based chemistry in the 21700 or 18650 size batts. Of course any battery could go potentially go a million miles over years and years, BUT, probably would be so degraded at the end a battery with 300 mile range new, would only hold enough charge for 50-60 miles.

 

[Ogre]

That is true, I was being a little facetious. About 2 years ago, when Tesla announced a new chemistry that could yield a "million mile" battery, I wanted to know what criteria was Tesla using. Was it based on 50,000 miles a year for 20 years? Or 100,000 miles for 10 years. Don't quote me on this next part as I cant recall where, but it seems like the research I ultimately found was the new battery was expected to degrade at half the rate as the then existing chemistries. I never did learn if it was the 4680 they were talking about, or a new lithium based chemistry in the 21700 or 18650 size batts. Of course any battery could go potentially go a million miles over years and years, BUT, probably would be so degraded at the end a battery with 300 mile range new, would only hold enough charge for 50-60 miles.

There is a video from the limiting factor which talks about this.

Essentially if a pack is capable of pushing a car 300 miles, you would need to be able to cycle that pack 3,500 times and retain 80% of its useful life. There is no time component. It gets weird though because the assumption in the original paper suggested it should do a million miles when treated poorly. That suggests the million mile battery could last 1.5 million miles if treated well.

Again, Tesla has never talked about a million miles outside some talk about the semi.

 

[Rix]

There is a video from the limiting factor which talks about this.

Essentially if a pack is capable of pushing a car 300 miles, you would need to be able to cycle that pack 3,500 times and retain 80% of its useful life. There is no time component. It gets weird though because the assumption in the original paper suggested it should do a million miles when treated poorly. That suggests the million mile battery could last 1.5 million miles if treated well.

Again, Tesla has never talked about a million miles outside some talk about the semi.

That would be really impressive. Which brings me to my next question, is it true, Tesla cars use the same battery, and they control the range/capacity discharged with software? A Tesla owner, I will refer to as Bob, who hails from the metropolis of Fallon Nevada told me this. Problem with Bob is, he doesn't know/understand much about the car he owns. If that is the case, it seems to be a waste of space and weight. BTW, I am jacking this thread a little with the off topic discussion, if there is another thread to go to, please let me know.

 

[Crissa]

That would be really impressive. Which brings me to my next question, is it true, Tesla cars use the same battery, and they control the range/capacity discharged with software? A Tesla owner, I will refer to as Bob, who hails from the metropolis of Fallon Nevada told me this. Problem with Bob is, he doesn't know/understand much about the car he owns. If that is the case, it seems to be a waste of space and weight. BTW, I am jacking this thread a little with the off topic discussion, if there is another thread to go to, please let me know.

Yes and no.

Yes, Tesla uses as few battery packs as possible.
Yes, they sell you a range, not a battery pack.

No, they don't all use the same: Some are LFP, most are still NCA, some are 18650, others are 2170 or 4680 based.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

That would be really impressive. Which brings me to my next question, is it true, Tesla cars use the same battery, and they control the range/capacity discharged with software?

Your foot on the accelerator controls range/ discharge rate. Tesla manages some aspects of the battery, but if you set it to 100% it’ll charge to 100% (there is a bit of a buffer but not much). If you discharge to 0%, it’s not going to force you to a Supercharger. You’ll get warnings for bad behaviour but since you control the speed, and that’s what determines the discharge rate.

 

[CyberShawnTruck]

• September 2022: 9k ton Gigapress arrives at Giga Texas during the second half of the month. Other production equipment will be spotted arriving preceding and proceeding this.
  
  
• Q3 2022 earnings call: Status of production in slide deck changes from "In Development" to "Under Construction." Additionally, announcement of Cybertruck Event 2.0 is announced (if not spoiled prematurely by Musk on Twitter)
  
  
• November 2022: Almost exactly 3 years after initial Cybertruck was unveiled, the Cybertruck Event 2.0 happens that reveals updated specs and pricing. Additionally, the order confirmation/setup page goes live.
  
  
• December 2022: Initial underbody castings for Cybertruck spotted. Likely towards the end of the month.
  
  
• March 2023: More and more prototype sightings in and around Giga Texas using the underbody castings, armored glass, and exoskeletons made using production line equipment.
  
  
• April 2023: EPA filings (official range numbers)
  
  
• July 2023: Initial production begins. Limited to employee-only deliveries.
  
  
• September 2023: Initial non-employee deliveries.
  
  
• January 2024: First Canadian deliveries.

January 2024, that’s soooo long. But also likely quite accurat.

 

[teslamaniac]

• September 2022: 9k ton Gigapress arrives at Giga Texas during the second half of the month. Other production equipment will be spotted arriving preceding and proceeding this.
  
  
• Q3 2022 earnings call: Status of production in slide deck changes from "In Development" to "Under Construction." Additionally, announcement of Cybertruck Event 2.0 is announced (if not spoiled prematurely by Musk on Twitter)
  
  
• November 2022: Almost exactly 3 years after initial Cybertruck was unveiled, the Cybertruck Event 2.0 happens that reveals updated specs and pricing. Additionally, the order confirmation/setup page goes live.
  
  
• December 2022: Initial underbody castings for Cybertruck spotted. Likely towards the end of the month.
  
  
• March 2023: More and more prototype sightings in and around Giga Texas using the underbody castings, armored glass, and exoskeletons made using production line equipment.
  
  
• April 2023: EPA filings (official range numbers)
  
  
• July 2023: Initial production begins. Limited to employee-only deliveries.
  
  
• September 2023: Initial non-employee deliveries.
  
  
• January 2024: First Canadian deliveries.

As far as I know the origami unibody on the Cybertruck has never been attempted before on a large volume mass-produced vehicle. Yet the industrial equipment that is supposed to score and fold the 3-mm-thick (.118-in) "ultra-hard 30X cold-rolled stainless-steel" sheet into the CT body has never been revealed or demonstrated. I would think that Tesla would need to extensively test and work though all of the kinks in this process long before installing this in the final production line. Yet Tesla says they will begin volume production of the Cybertruck in mid-2023. Has anyone seen any news at all about the machines that will perform this function?

 

[CyberGus]

That would be really impressive. Which brings me to my next question, is it true, Tesla cars use the same battery, and they control the range/capacity discharged with software? A Tesla owner, I will refer to as Bob, who hails from the metropolis of Fallon Nevada told me this. Problem with Bob is, he doesn't know/understand much about the car he owns. If that is the case, it seems to be a waste of space and weight. BTW, I am jacking this thread a little with the off topic discussion, if there is another thread to go to, please let me know.

Tesla has been known to use a slightly larger pack when replacing them under warranty, but software-limiting the pack to have the same capacity as the original. They'll even sell you the extra capacity lol

 

[firsttruck]

As far as I know the origami unibody on the Cybertruck has never been attempted before on a large volume mass-produced vehicle. Yet the industrial equipment that is supposed to score and fold the 3-mm-thick (.118-in) "ultra-hard 30X cold-rolled stainless-steel" sheet into the CT body has never been revealed or demonstrated. I would think that Tesla would need to extensively test and work though all of the kinks in this process long before installing this in the final production line. Yet Tesla says they will begin volume production of the Cybertruck in mid-2023. Has anyone seen any news at all about the machines that will perform this function?

Manufacturing expert Sandy Munro has worked with exoskeletons before. He does not think volume production of Cybertruck stainless steel exoskeleton will be a problem.

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