Cybertruck timeline schedule prediction -- Agree or Disagree?

[Dusty]

I believe the CT design is really good, and I like it. It consists of different parts that are put together to make it. ...

I don't care about how old legacy autos are made, and never mentioned how bad I think they are in comparison. CT 8s a change in the right direction either way you look at it.

Ok. So, your main beef is with the term "exoskeleton"-and you're concerned that WE don't know the CT body is not a textbook "exoskeleton", and you don't want us to identify the body that way?

Geez... That's what you've been on about?

Here, smoke this, play some music, and go sit by the pool for a little bit.

*hugs JBee*

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[Ogre]

Ok. So, your main beef is with the term "exoskeleton"-and you're concerned that WE don't know the CT body is not a textbook "exoskeleton", and you don't want us to identify the body that way?

He thinks the Cybertruck design doesn’t conform to the term which Musk coined to describe the Cybertruck’s design.

 

[CyberGus]

Well if I can't use the internet to quibble over semantics, then what the hell is it good for

 

[Crissa]

Well if I can't use the internet to quibble over semantics, then what the hell is it good for

https://xkcd.com/1432/

Corollary

https://xkcd.com/386/

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

Ok. So, your main beef is with the term "exoskeleton"-and you're concerned that WE don't know the CT body is not a textbook "exoskeleton", and you don't want us to identify the body that way?

Geez... That's what you've been on about?

He thinks the Cybertruck design doesn’t conform to the term which Musk coined to describe the Cybertruck’s design.

Yeah nearly but not quite, as I posted a few pages ago the relevance to this thread, and overall point is that it changes our perception of what parts of the CT still need development, and how long that will take. A few were asking about the SS skin manufacturing and how that would be done, and that no machinery had been seen for it yet.

For those that missed it:

This might all sound pedantic but the meanings and especially the functionality of the parts involved have a direct relevance on manufacturing and production scheduling.

If we call this "exoskeleton" a thing, and that thing needs specialised machinery to build said "thing", all our production scheduling assumptions go out the window too.

Reality is they already make a structual pack and front and rear castings, windscreen and rear roof glass and cabin structure that are already at least 80-90% of the structural build of the CT. (They are all also present in the MY but no-one mentions the term.) That makes the manufacturing of the "exoskeleton" skin, that is limited to the front and rear fenders much, much less important in the scheduling of things then it at first seems.

I'm sure a few would have gleaned a fact or thought or two from the discourse to improve their perception of the vehicle structure, so I can't see any harm in that. I even apologised in advance in the first post for bringing it up, because I knew some had heard parts before.

I also learnt some trigger points and limits to jot down in my little black troll book I keep where I live under a bridge. But hey at least I'm engineer enough to build my own cybertruss bridge and get over myself.

Besides, the conversation started because some had a problem understanding the concept and just threw everything in, including the stainless kitchen sink, poetry, and crabs to justify it.

 

[Ogre]

https://xkcd.com/1432/

A super relevant XKCD I somehow have not seen before… thank you for this gift.

 

[Balthezor]

 

[Rix]

I mean… sure.

But, where does the tri motor fall short? What exactly is the huge upgrade which would merit $20k-30k+ on top of what the tri motor offered?

Because I don’t see anything out there which is better than the tri… or even close. They slap a “Plaid“ badge on its and…. ???

Its like I said on the other thread before it got locked up, the 15000ish towing capacity and 0-60 in 2.9 seconds the Tri motor accomplishes just isn't fast enough. We need 20000 pounds and 0-60 in 2 flat to truly be happy....Which is why I went with the dual motor, because I am happy with 0-60 in 4.5 seconds. Now if they offer a 160KWH battery upgrade for the dual motor, that would be really sweet.

 

[Rix]

Shows no signs of picking up production to meet demands in a year???

Let me remind those who are freaking out about 4680's being "behind schedule" and doomsaying timelines of late 2023 possibly 2024 for legit output of those batteries...

Day 698 (first beams installed):

Day 755 (floor 2 and 3 nearly complete with concrete. Roof prepping for concrete. Base floor prepping for concrete):

A mere 57 days and the basic structure is like 75% done. I don't know what kind of timeline you think is fast.. but where I come from, massive buildings like these don't get near completely constructed in 2 months. More like 2 years!!

You think its going to take over a year to complete 25% of that building and populate it with functional equipment????

Tesla had 4680 machinery inside Giga Texas and functional weeks if not over a month before anyone with a drone realized it.

That building is done and starting output by January. 6 months later 4680 output is in full tilt. Just in time to meet the current official cybertruck volume timeline.

And as they have mentioned many times in official briefs, 4680's will be iteratively better. They don't design and optimize them.. then start producing them until and only when they meet their 100% goals for them. They started already with whatever base level improvements over the previous cells they had. So any difficulties in achieving their ideal improvements with them has no bearing on their ability to produce them at scale.

Is the 4680 battery the "million mile battery which can last for 16 years before it starts degrading in capacity?

 

[Crissa]

Is the 4680 battery the "million mile battery which can last for 16 years before it starts degrading in capacity?

Well, there's no battery that doesn't start degrading out the door.

The point of the million mile battery is that it retains some portion longer, usually the mark is at 80%.

And I doubt they'll make that claim until there's years' of testing.

-Crissa

 

[CyberBC]

The million mile battery concept seems to me to tie better to the old ice way of looking at things. My calculation I did this morning was that for a Cybertruck with a 500 mile range and an end of life range of 210 miles using a 5% degradation for each 100k miles would give a 1.7 million mile battery. 500 x .95 17 times on the calculator. That's enough for me.

 

[Ogre]

I don’t believe anyone at Tesla has referred to a million miles with any vehicle save perhaps the Semi.

Its a term a battery researched picked up and the press latched onto.

 

[CyberBC]

Also been following this interesting discussion with Jbee over the term exoskeleton. Having watched videos of frame failures with one ton trucks carrying their max weight capacities drive over a curb I think it would be an interesting video to watch what happens when a loaded cybertruck exceeds it's capacity. Would there be warping in the "truss" or would there be some explosions/fire when the structural pack gets torn. Would make a great YouTube video. Even better than jumping a model S.

 

[Ogre]

it would be quite difficult to do this to a Cybertruck

Safe to assume no exoskeleton here.

 

[firsttruck]

it would be quit difficult to do this to a Cybertruck

Safe to assume no exoskeleton here.

Just like Tesla cars are safest cars in market, Cybertruck will probable be safest truck in the market


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The 2021 Ram 1500 is the only pickup truck to be chosen as an IIHS 2021 top safety pick (for the crew cab with optional front crash protection and upgraded LED headlights). The Ram 1500 has high ratings for IIHS's crashworthiness testing.
10 ene 2022
Safest Pickup Trucks of 2021
Merchants Auto

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Most pickups need better passenger-side protection
The majority of pickups recently put through the passenger-side small overlap front test struggled to maintain their structure
March 21, 2019
https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/most-pickups-need-better-passenger-side-protection

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Are Pickup Trucks Safer Than Sedans? by Jay Thompson | More Articles: Trucks Published on October 30, 2019
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/are-pickup-trucks-safer-than-sedans/

The less impressive results for passenger-side crash tests are likely in part because trucks are built using a body-on-frame design, where the passenger compartments are bolted on top of the truck’s rigid frame. This frame design makes the vehicle stronger and able to perform heavy-duty tasks. Passenger cars, on the other hand, have a unibody design.

The body-on-frame design makes trucks stronger and more rigid but does not collapse as easily in a frontal collision. The energy gets transferred back into the passenger compartment, creating an increased risk of passenger injuries.

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