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Tesla would be dumb to produce and release the lower spec version first if it doesn't top every competitor in every category, especially after being the last to the party.

For the first year you want every comparison of the Rivian or F150s specs to end with the sentence "...is not as good as the Cybertruck."

If the top end version with better specs isn't on the street for review then they can keep singing the "vaporware" song. If they want to break into the pickup market they need to induce buyers remorse in people who have a Rivian or F150.
 

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Tesla would be dumb to produce and release the lower spec version first if it doesn't top every competitor in every category, especially after being the last to the party.

For the first year you want every comparison of the Rivian or F150s specs to end with the sentence "...is not as good as the Cybertruck."

If the top end version with better specs isn't on the street for review then they can keep singing the "vaporware" song. If they want to break into the pickup market they need to induce buyers remorse in people who have a Rivian or F150.
Funny story.. I saw a guy at the gas station vacuums last night cleaning his brand new model y. I pulled up next to him in my beater Ridgeline after paying $90 to fill up, honked, rolled my window down and asked him if his y was from giga Texas. He didn't know so I asked him when he got it. He said may and I was like yeah it's probably from California. He said I should get one and I told him I had a cybertruck reservation I was waiting on. He then tells me I should get a rivian. I laughed at that.

Btw, given the recent news of exactly how much rivian is taking in losses, they might not exist by the time cybertruck hits the road!
 

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Tesla would be dumb to produce and release the lower spec version first if it doesn't top every competitor in every category, especially after being the last to the party.

For the first year you want every comparison of the Rivian or F150s specs to end with the sentence "...is not as good as the Cybertruck."

If the top end version with better specs isn't on the street for review then they can keep singing the "vaporware" song. If they want to break into the pickup market they need to induce buyers remorse in people who have a Rivian or F150.
If Tesla delivered the CT2 with 300 miles range at $60k - $65k, with the quad motor coming out 6 months later, I guarantee you it’ll make a bang. That puts it $20k less than any competing truck with 300 miles of range.

People under-estimate how much of an impact getting an affordable electric truck on the market will make. If the Cybertruck is $60k it is cheaper to own and operate than any comparable ICE truck on the market (assuming 15k+ miles/ year).

Tesla doesn’t need the auto rags to throw flowers at the Cybertruck, they have enough pre-orders they can let them start rolling on the street and speak for themselves.

I’m not predicting dual will be first… but Tesla doesn’t need to prove anything by making the superest super truck out there. Price is the most interesting thing here.
 

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I disagree that CT3 reservation holders will be given priority configuration opportunities. When reservations began at the 2019 unveiling, there was no indication that any of the 3 trims would be built ahead of the others and in fact, many speculated that the CT1 would be first off the line.

I think it's more likely that configurations will be offered in order of reservation number because there will be many (myself included) who reserved a CT2 who will gladly upgrade to a CT4 if that trim is first to production.
That certainly could be true...However, if Tesla's previous delivery strategy for the Model 3 (which was to maximize revenue) is used for the Cybertruck, then it could go something like this:

* Contact all reservation holders with information about new / upgraded Cybertruck variants
* Give people a chance to change their reservation to higher priced variant
* In the beginning, deliver most expensive truck variant and those orders with FSD first
* Give delivery priority to previous Tesla customers
* Give priority to customers located closer to Gigafactory (minimize delivery costs)
 


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If Tesla delivered the CT2 with 300 miles range at $60k - $65k, with the quad motor coming out 6 months later, I guarantee you it’ll make a bang. That puts it $20k less than any competing truck with 300 miles of range.

People under-estimate how much of an impact getting an affordable electric truck on the market will make. If the Cybertruck is $60k it is cheaper to own and operate than any comparable ICE truck on the market (assuming 15k+ miles/ year).

Tesla doesn’t need the auto rags to throw flowers at the Cybertruck, they have enough pre-orders they can let them start rolling on the street and speak for themselves.

I’m not predicting dual will be first… but Tesla doesn’t need to prove anything by making the superest super truck out there. Price is the most interesting thing here.
Isn't part of Total Cost to Own depreciation? ANY first year Cybertrucks are going UP UP UP.

I find it hard to believe many ICE pickups are going to cost less to own.
 

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There's still a lot of construction at the CT end.. Joe T. Video today shows interior earthworks ' big hole'.
Had me wondering if maybe the 9 ton (or 2) will be installed at that end.

We should tell if a great big chimney comes through the roof.
Good point about the chimney. I didn't even think of that. I WAS hoping, though, that they wouldn't try to squeeze the CT production casting around the Model Y castings. Moving that part of the line to the South side would fix that. I don't know if the industrial brakes will be large enough to see or if they are common enough in manufacturing that it'll be no big deal. My concern is that we know there is a single 9k-ton Casting machine on the way from IDRA but the CT will need something for the front casting. Do you think a "regular" sized 6k ton press can cast the front end? If so, we'll need to see that one, too.
 

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I disagree that CT3 reservation holders will be given priority configuration opportunities. When reservations began at the 2019 unveiling, there was no indication that any of the 3 trims would be built ahead of the others and in fact, many speculated that the CT1 would be first off the line.

I think it's more likely that configurations will be offered in order of reservation number because there will be many (myself included) who reserved a CT2 who will gladly upgrade to a CT4 if that trim is first to production.
Actually, at 9:55 AM on December 3, 2021, Elon tweeted:
Initial production will be 4 motor variant, with independent, ultra fast response torque control of each wheel

Quad Tweet.JPG
 

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If Tesla delivered the CT2 with 300 miles range at $60k - $65k, with the quad motor coming out 6 months later, I guarantee you it’ll make a bang. That puts it $20k less than any competing truck with 300 miles of range.

People under-estimate how much of an impact getting an affordable electric truck on the market will make. If the Cybertruck is $60k it is cheaper to own and operate than any comparable ICE truck on the market (assuming 15k+ miles/ year).

Tesla doesn’t need the auto rags to throw flowers at the Cybertruck, they have enough pre-orders they can let them start rolling on the street and speak for themselves.

I’m not predicting dual will be first… but Tesla doesn’t need to prove anything by making the superest super truck out there. Price is the most interesting thing here.
Normally it's true, but the problem with people is that they they either only read headlines, or never read the follow-up.

If Tesla releases a CT version that doesn't beat every category the click-bait headlines will say "CT Not as Good as..." and people won't care if the better version "is coming". After that, no matter how good the "coming soon" top-spec CT will be, the story gets told as— it's not "the better truck" head-to-head. Period. And it won't be a lie because that's what the initial reviews will show.

Releasing the top spec CT is about people who are ready to buy and are on the fence — EV/ICE, F150/R1T/CT. You only get one shot at them because once they pick a truck they won't be back and up for grabs until years down the road. And if the first take says "the CT isn't all that"... they're not going to bite. That's letting, literally, billions of dollars walk away from your product because you pulled your swing. It's an especially dumb move when simply giving them the full Monty would have taken the exact same amount of effort. There's no downside to releasing the monster spec CT first. But there are definite downsides to releasing a lesser truck first. If Tesla isn't going to spend money on PR and advertising they MUST release the product in a way that strengthens the CTs reputation. If the product does all the talking, you don't start off with the weaker voice.

People will wait for the cheaper version of the better truck. It's waaaay less compelling to wait for the better version of the truck that initially wasn't as good as the others.

I will couch this comment by saying if the midrange CT beats them all head-to-head, release that version first. THAT is what I hope is the case.
 
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Ogre

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Isn't part of Total Cost to Own depreciation? ANY first year Cybertrucks are going UP UP UP.

I find it hard to believe many ICE pickups are going to cost less to own.
Normally it's true, but the problem with people is that they they either only read headlines, or never read the follow-up.
What the perception is about first year Cybertrucks is completely irrelevant. The backlog is so long, we are going to be 3+ years into sales before non-reservation holders even have the option to buy one.

By that time, the headlines which were posted at launch time and within the first few months will be long obliviated by the ground truth.

If Tesla releases a CT version that doesn't beat every category the click-bait headlines will say "CT Not as Good as..." and people won't care if the better version "is coming". After that, no matter how good the "coming soon" top-spec CT will be, the story gets told as— it's not "the better truck" head-to-head. Period. And it won't be a lie because that's what the initial reviews will show.
Again… this is irrelevant. No matter what Tesla launches, it will be panned by the media. We already know this.

Look at the reservation holder list. If they don’t launch the quad-plaid-mega edition first, how many people do you think will cancel? If anything, launching the lower end truck will result in fewer cancellations.

The rags will pan it one way or the other. But trucks will roll out of the factory one after the other. Before long, whatever nonsense the rags make up will be forgotten. Look back at the Model 3 and the Model Y. How many “Tesla Killer” articles are out there? Remember when the Porsche Taycancan was going to trash the Model Y? That was fact according to the media. Likewise the Mach-E.

“Headlines” are meaningless and forgotten once enough vehicles are on the road.


Not predicting this one way or the other. Just pointing out that it doesn’t matter what order they are launched in. Maybe Tesla makes a few bucks more if there is a Plaid first. But in the long run it’s a rounding error.
 


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Elon said they were going to build the 4 motor version first. Could that change? Sure. But, that's what he said. Or, rather, tweeted.
 

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Actually, at 9:55 AM on December 3, 2021, Elon tweeted:
Initial production will be 4 motor variant, with independent, ultra fast response torque control of each wheel

Quad Tweet.JPG
This is true. He also said it would be smaller than said it would stay the same size mostly.... I don't think that tweets carry the same weight as official statements made at a presentation. I also don't think Tesla will be looking to maximize revenue for the cybertruck since they appear to have plenty of positive cash flow. My guess is they will start with AWD cybertruck at the lowest possible price. I'm guessing CT2 first followed by CT4 and CT1. I think CT3 is probably dead. CT2 will be long and standard range. CT 1 standard range only. CT4 Plaid will be very expansive super truck.$130,000 or more
 

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What the perception is about first year Cybertrucks is completely irrelevant. The backlog is so long, we are going to be 3+ years into sales before non-reservation holders even have the option to buy one.

By that time, the headlines which were posted at launch time and within the first few months will be long obliviated by the ground truth.



Again… this is irrelevant. No matter what Tesla launches, it will be panned by the media. We already know this.

Look at the reservation holder list. If they don’t launch the quad-plaid-mega edition first, how many people do you think will cancel? If anything, launching the lower end truck will result in fewer cancellations.

The rags will pan it one way or the other. But trucks will roll out of the factory one after the other. Before long, whatever nonsense the rags make up will be forgotten. Look back at the Model 3 and the Model Y. How many “Tesla Killer” articles are out there? Remember when the Porsche Taycancan was going to trash the Model Y? That was fact according to the media. Likewise the Mach-E.

“Headlines” are meaningless and forgotten once enough vehicles are on the road.


Not predicting this one way or the other. Just pointing out that it doesn’t matter what order they are launched in. Maybe Tesla makes a few bucks more if there is a Plaid first. But in the long run it’s a rounding error.
Think about this Ogre, You say the list is so long that it will take 3 years before non-reservation holders have an opportunity to buy a Cybertruck. Not if they come out with a Mega fast/expensive model they can reserve. Sure there will be some reservation holders that want to be first out of the gate, but most will be willing to wait a few months and get THEIR Cybertruck at a much more reasonable price.
I prefer Tesla comes out with a Hyper/Supertruck first. Those will take down any ICE owners wanting to drag race at stop lights. By the time I get my Dual motor all those motor heads will have gotten spanked by a Cybertruck and won't even think about challenging the rest of us.
In the meantime Tesla will be producing hundreds of thousands of Cybertrucks for us reservationist, and anyone that it's willing to put up the big bucks to bypass the line will have access to The Plaid Cybertruck. And Tesla will take that huge profit margin!
 

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Good point about the chimney. I didn't even think of that. I WAS hoping, though, that they wouldn't try to squeeze the CT production casting around the Model Y castings. Moving that part of the line to the South side would fix that. I don't know if the industrial brakes will be large enough to see or if they are common enough in manufacturing that it'll be no big deal. My concern is that we know there is a single 9k-ton Casting machine on the way from IDRA but the CT will need something for the front casting. Do you think a "regular" sized 6k ton press can cast the front end? If so, we'll need to see that one, too.
This would also make sense given our knowledge of the structure of that area under discussion. From watching their construction of that part of the building before the roof was finished, we know that section of the building consists of a massive main alley flanked by massive columns as well as huge foundations, in the same way but in a larger scale that the existing giga casting area was constructed.

This to me would suggest not only are they installing the 9T giga press down the other end of the building where the model y's pop out currently, but that they might also be producing the Semi down on that end as well. It would make sense for that area with a huge alley of support columns be an even bigger bridge crane for multiple 9T giga presses, not only for the CT, but also for the Semi. One end of the building devoted to passenger vehicles, the other end of the building devoted to passenger and commercial trucks.
 

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Think about this Ogre, You say the list is so long that it will take 3 years before non-reservation holders have an opportunity to buy a Cybertruck. Not if they come out with a Mega fast/expensive model they can reserve. Sure there will be some reservation holders that want to be first out of the gate, but most will be willing to wait a few months and get THEIR Cybertruck at a much more reasonable price.
I prefer Tesla comes out with a Hyper/Supertruck first. Those will take down any ICE owners wanting to drag race at stop lights. By the time I get my Dual motor all those motor heads will have gotten spanked by a Cybertruck and won't even think about challenging the rest of us.
In the meantime Tesla will be producing hundreds of thousands of Cybertrucks for us reservationist, and anyone that it's willing to put up the big bucks to bypass the line will have access to The Plaid Cybertruck. And Tesla will take that huge profit margin!
I don’t follow here.

Are you suggesting they will open up orders to new people before they work their way through the current backlog? That makes no sense at all. It’s also completely inconsistent with any prior launch.

The dual motor Cybertruck will embarrass any ICE trucks at stoplights. The quad motor will destroy it. No “Hypertruck” needed.

 

 
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