charliemagpie

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"Walked whole Cybertruck production line at Giga Texas for several hours earlier today"

On one hand his comment inspires confidence, on the other hand, he seems to be where there is a fire...

Several hours is not a tour.

But 'gonna be awesome!' , means all good !
Sponsored

 

greggertruck

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It’s very likely 4/20 will be an earnings call and nothing more.

Though solid chance we’ll hear “Production will start on the Cybertruck later this quarter”…

Launch event will be closer to customer deliveries and after we see rows of Cybertrucks in the Giga Texas parking lot.
Earnings 4/19.

cyber going into orbit on 4/20 lmfaorolfletsgoggford
 

greggertruck

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With the Model Y, they announced start of production on the earnings call prior. I think we have a strong chance Tesla will announce Cybertruck production is starting sometime in Q2. I doubt they will have more detail than that unless it’s actually started by the time of the call which seems unlikely.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they go as far as saying production has started in the form of finally dialing in equipment but Cybertruck production line is looking to still be on track for summer.

I think 4/20 is a big possibility. But then again, it’s gonna be may…

 

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I've said it before... Even if Tesla gave 500-800 celebs/influencers/friends their CTs first that would only delay delivery to regular folks by 2 days max.

I dont think celebs will eat up inventory because, unlike GM, Tesla intends to make more than 700 a year.
i’m not Worried about the lack of inventory
if they brought people that were microwaved as children aka influencers to hype up an announcement for a 4 year project, they are absolutely going to get them into the hands of the same people, regardless of geographical limitations or numerical order.

i just want a couple before 10k are made
 

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i’m not Worried about the lack of inventory
if they brought people that were microwaved as children aka influencers to hype up an announcement for a 4 year project, they are absolutely going to get them into the hands of the same people, regardless of geographical limitations or numerical order.

i just want a couple before 10k are made
Huh?

The Tesla influencers and YouTubers were the first in line to get reservations, it's how they make their living. If they didn't submit a reservation in the first 10 minutes reservations were open, they were asleep at the wheel and deserve to wait their turn. Tesla is not going to slip them in ahead of anyone.
 


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I wouldn’t be surprised if they go as far as saying production has started in the form of finally dialing in equipment but Cybertruck production line is looking to still be on track for summer.

I think 4/20 is a big possibility. But then again, it’s gonna be may…
My money is on a silent start of the production line, Tesla will say nothing at first, we will probably see handfuls of Cybertrucks parked outside before Tesla acknowleges they are making low volumes of Cybertrucks. Because the factory is so big and not fully allocated yet, it's possible the early trucks off the line will be staged indoors, out of sight. They probably have huge empty areas that could hold a few hundred Cybertrucks. This is the slowest part of the ramp, the line speed is not continuous and a lot of training is going on at the stations. They might only make a couple a day for the first several weeks as they work on adjusting the line and fine-tuning the stations. Different parts of the line will turn on at different times for testing purposes. We might be in that stage right now. It's not really even production, it's still line development.

It makes sense that Elon would tour it while there were actual vehicles being worked on. It's a blurry line between pre-production and production. Even in early production they shut down the line to modify the processes. This is the most expensive part of the ramp and it can take quite a while to get everything tuned correctly.
 

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I don’t think we will see them till the cathode plant is done and working right. End of the year.
 

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I don’t think we will see them till the cathode plant is done and working right. End of the year.
I do think Cybertruck production volumes will be closely tied to 4680 cell production but what basis do you have for tying it to the cathode plant completion? In my opinion, it's the consistency of cell assembly that has been the holdup on high volume 4680 production, not a lack of cathode material.
 

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I've said it before... Even if Tesla gave 500-800 celebs/influencers/friends their CTs first that would only delay delivery to regular folks by 2 days max.

I dont think celebs will eat up inventory because, unlike GM, Tesla intends to make more than 700 a year.
Agreed, but there are a lot of Tesla employees and Austin locals that will likely get theirs before reservations start getting filled. I suspect the first few thousand will go that way. Lets say 5,000 for grins. Depending on when they actually begin production they might get 20,000+ out the door by year's end and that would put them solidly into the reservations.
 


Jhodgesatmb

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My money is on a silent start of the production line, Tesla will say nothing at first, we will probably see handfuls of Cybertrucks parked outside before Tesla acknowleges they are making low volumes of Cybertrucks. Because the factory is so big and not fully allocated yet, it's possible the early trucks off the line will be staged indoors, out of sight. They probably have huge empty areas that could hold a few hundred Cybertrucks. This is the slowest part of the ramp, the line speed is not continuous and a lot of training is going on at the stations. They might only make a couple a day for the first several weeks as they work on adjusting the line and fine-tuning the stations. Different parts of the line will turn on at different times for testing purposes. We might be in that stage right now. It's not really even production, it's still line development.

It makes sense that Elon would tour it while there were actual vehicles being worked on. It's a blurry line between pre-production and production. Even in early production they shut down the line to modify the processes. This is the most expensive part of the ramp and it can take quite a while to get everything tuned correctly.
With only a quarter to go before Tesla told us production would start it surely makes sense that the production line would be far enough along to justify a review of its status. If we consider how many 'large' stations there are (i.e., die casting, stamping, folding, welding, stamping painting, cell, drivetrain, plastics, and general assembly) if he was only at each one for half an hour the tour would have taken 4+ hours. This kind of inspection/review is really good news to me.

We can be pretty certain that the folding machines are not installed yet, and they are keeping the BIW from being completed (they could conceivably be ready to test all of BIW except the exoskeleton). After BIW they can produce a vehicle in house and bring in missing components from elsewhere until the entire line is ready. Joe's videos make it look like they might be able to begin installation in the new stamping area in the next month or so. I am hoping to start seeing CT BIWs around mid May.
 

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The y’s with the current 4680’s have less range than the ones built with the 2170’s. I’m making the assumption the new cathode plant will make a higher energy density cathode. Maybe be they will sell lower range cybertruck s with the current battery.
 

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Huh?

The Tesla influencers and YouTubers were the first in line to get reservations, it's how they make their living. If they didn't submit a reservation in the first 10 minutes reservations were open, they were asleep at the wheel and deserve to wait their turn. Tesla is not going to slip them in ahead of anyone.
CT will be launched in part by RN number, when reservation process is complete and by geographical location. Neither of those is the whole control pattern and nobody has the capacity to double check their work.
an intentional grey area only exists for one reason
 

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The y’s with the current 4680’s have less range than the ones built with the 2170’s. I’m making the assumption the new cathode plant will make a higher energy density cathode. Maybe be they will sell lower range cybertruck s with the current battery.
They won't sell the CT with even the 2nd generation of 4680s. They will wait for the 3rd generation cells. Dry electrode cathodes would be 3rd generation and they said at Investor Day that they are making dry electrodes for both the anode and cathode now. CTs might even have a 4th generation 4680 battery pack.
 
 




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