Final Cybertruck Production Version: when will we see

[Arctic_White]

The prices @slomo posted there for “Dual Motor” trucks are not accurate either.

Base dual motor Rivian is $65k, base Ford with 300 mile range is about the same. Ford also makes a dual motor truck with less range for $56k.

As you suggest, Tesla is almost certain to land below that.

While we are speculating, here is how I think it might play out initially:

Dual motor, 300-mile range for $53K
Quad motor, 400-mile range Plaid for $77K (leaving enough room to add some accessories etc. to stay under the $80K limit)

In other words, no CT will be over the $80K tax limit.

If the demand is high for either/or, Tesla will raise price as they see fit. Similarly, if the demand is less than production capacity, Tesla will lower price to market-clearing price. They've done that repeatedly with both the Model 3 and the Model Y.

So that's my prediction: $53K and $77K with quad motor selling first.

Any takers? Any other opinion on initial pricing?

Sponsored

 

[Ogre]

Cheapest R1T that can currently be ordered is the 260 mile dual motor for $73k.

Which is not $80k.

 

[Arctic_White]

One way they might deal with this and split the issue is announce two models in the pricing; one with slightly accelerated delivery and one without.

That way people feel like the cheaper Dual Motor is coming out on schedule while the Quad is soaking a few early adopters.

-Crissa

Are you my twin? We think so similarly LOL.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Very strong chance more expensive quad motor truck comes out first. Only question in my mind is whether it is under $80k or not.

Hopefully TSLA hits $400 again before then so I won’t care. Or at least $325 so I’ll care, but do it anyhow.

But those shares will hit 1000 once FSD is legit and Robo taxis kill Lyft and Uber

The prices @slomo posted there for “Dual Motor” trucks are not accurate either.

Base dual motor Rivian is $65k, base Ford with 300 mile range is about the same. Ford also makes a dual motor truck with less range for $56k.

As you suggest, Tesla is almost certain to land below that.

My 2023 XLT is base at just under 64k with std 240 mile range and please take that range loosely. Cold weather kills range on these. The dual motor with 300 plus range at 49k to 56k and Tesla Supercharging network will kill the Lightning sales.

 

[Ogre]

But those shares will hit 1000 once FSD is legit and Robo taxis kill Lyft and Uber

While FSD progress is increasing, our understanding of the scope of the problem is increasing as well.

I’ll be quite happy when the share price revisits the all time high. Hopefully before the end of the year.

 

[Diehard]

My 2023 XLT is base at just under 64k with std 240 mile range and please take that range loosely. Cold weather kills range on these. The dual motor with 300 plus range at 49k to 56k and Tesla Supercharging network will kill the Lightning sales.

I agree. The question is what is Tesla's goal? Killing Lightning sales or maximizing profit margin. It seems like Tesla is mighty agile with price adjustment based on production capacity/demand. Initially production capacity will be lower and demand high. Sticking it to Ford may not be good enough reason to reduce Tesla's profit. So they could getaway with higher price even with dual motor if they don't care about some unhappy reservation holders. I am not sure what they will do. All I am saying is that they can get away with higher pricing. They could say, you can hold your reservation (for if/when price drops) to squeeze as much juice as they can based on desperation level.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I agree. The question is what is Tesla's goal? Killing Lightning sales or maximizing profit margin. It seems like Tesla is mighty agile with price adjustment based on production capacity/demand. Initially production capacity will be lower and demand high. Sticking it to Ford may not be good enough reason to reduce Tesla's profit. So they could getaway with higher price even with dual motor if they don't care about some unhappy reservation holders. I am not sure what they will do. All I am saying is that they can get away with higher pricing. They could say, you can hold your reservation (for if/when price drops) to squeeze as much juice as customers as they can based on desperation level.

Ultimately I think Tesla wants the world to transition to EV's. Ford will only respond to build a better product if the CT takes massive market share of the worlds best selling vehicle.

Did you see Farley admitting they made so many errors in the design of the Lightning. Wasteful wiring, bad software, bad aero design, to heavy, inefficient heating system, etc. Without Tesla and the upcoming CT it would be business as usual and no push to innovate.

I give Ford credit that they are making a serious attempt to change. I appreciate Farley recognizing that he realizes he has to change and change fast and Tesla is the model he has to race towards to survive. I believe their 2025 new Lightning platform will correct many of the mistakes they made. I think of all the OEM's they have the best chance to survive the disruption getting ready to rock the auto world.

 

[NJturtlePower]

Obviously 4/20/2023 is in the running or maybe 6/9/2023?

 

[Diehard]

Ultimately I think Tesla wants the world to transition to EV's. Ford will only respond to build a better product if the CT takes massive market share of the worlds best selling vehicle.

Did you see Farley admitting they made so many errors in the design of the Lightning. Wasteful wiring, bad software, bad aero design, to heavy, inefficient heating system, etc. Without Tesla and the upcoming CT it would be business as usual and no push to innovate.

I give Ford credit that they are making a serious attempt to change. I appreciate Farley recognizing that he realizes he has to change and change fast and Tesla is the model he has to race towards to survive. I believe their 2025 new Lightning platform will correct many of the mistakes they made. I think of all the OEM's they have the best chance to survive the disruption getting ready to rock the auto world.

I don't believe much of what Ford did with Lightning was a mistake. Laws of aerodynamic is pretty much the same before and after Lightning. They knew about octovalve when they put Lightning on the road. They were all engineering and business compromises to put something on the road as fast as possible. Lightning was only a placeholder to stay relevant. Long before I ordered mine, they had announced they plan to put the right version of it (26 model year) out in 25.

I agree with you that many OEMs may have to copy a lot of what Tesla is doing to compete and to survive. In some respects that may be beneficial for us as consumers but mot necessarily in every respect. A design change may reduce manufacturing cost for the company but increase insurance cost for the owner. The more of these companies survive and thrive, the better we will do as consumers. I just hope we don't end up with a lot of similar looking pigs with different lipsticks.

 

[charliemagpie]

It is interesting,

Not all Model Y's were priced under $55,000.

To begin the ramp, it makes sense to me, to make the lower volume collector's edition Plaid Quads first. A nice Plaid badge.

And BTW who knows what the price will be. Tri may be cancelled and quad comes in plaid only, for 79,999 for all we know.

A few more sleeps.

 

[Ogre]

I don't believe much of what Ford did with Lightning was a mistake. Laws of aerodynamic is pretty much the same before and after Lightning. They knew about octovalve when they put Lightning on the road. They were all engineering and business compromises to put something on the road as fast as possible. Lightning was only a placeholder to stay relevant. Long before I ordered mine, they had announced they plan to put the right version of it (26 model year) out in 25.

I agree with you that many OEMs may have to copy a lot of what Tesla is doing to compete and to survive. In some respects that may be beneficial for us as consumers but mot necessarily in every respect. A design change may reduce manufacturing cost for the company but increase insurance cost for the owner. The more of these companies survive and thrive, the better we will do as consumers. I just hope we don't end up with a lot of similar looking pigs with different lipsticks.

Mistake… opportunity for improvement… ?? Splitting hairs.

Ford’s next gen truck will be better. Ford seems to have done a much better job reacting to Tesla than GM. Almost agile even. They just need to iterate on it fast.

 

[Crissa]

I’ll be quite happy when the SP revisits the ATH.

Special Person the Auction Trade House?

-Crissa

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Mistake… opportunity for improvement… ?? Splitting hairs.

Ford’s next gen truck will be better. Ford seems to have done a much better job reacting to Tesla than GM. Almost agile even. They just need to iterate on it fast.

Farley knows it and is pushing and unlike Herbert Deiss he has the support for the most part of the company and the board.
Picture is Farley explaining what will happen to Ford if the board doesn't get onboard.

 

[Ogre]

Special Person the Auction Trade House?

-Crissa

Thanks, edited the above post.

Share Price revisits the All Time High.

Sponsored