Final Cybertruck Production Version: when will we see

[HaulingAss]

By 'key metrics' do you mean 0-60 times, range, payload, and towing capacity, because Tesla has a history of under promising and over delivering on such features. I can see Tesla changing the [initially] available trims, because they have done that a lot with other models, and they might update the ranges and towing capacities, or accelerations, accordingly, but I would expect that in all cases they would be equal to or better than the original as scaled in whatever ways.

No, I wasn't specifically thinking of 0-60 times, range, payload, and towing capacity, more that the quad motor complicates aligning the various specs and prices with the number of motors, particularly if the quad motor replaces the tri-motor. Since the Cybertruck has been evolving over time, and COVID added more time to that process, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla's thinking on configurations has changed.

Maybe for the first 2-3 years there will only be a quad motor AWD and a dual motor RWD, each available in 300- and 500-mile versions. That would simplify engineering and design because the dual motor would use the rear drivetrain from the quad motor. I've previously written posts arguing to not undervalue a dual-motor RWD simply because it's not AWD. This would be a very capable truck that would have plenty of traction to replace the most reasons why truck buyers pay more for four-wheel drive. It would not be a bad-ass off-road rig for challenging the most extreme trail conditions but it would be far more capable in tricky situations than most people can comprehend due to independent control of each rear wheel and no heavy motor upfront which is what really makes for the crappy driving dynamics of most RWD trucks in tricky traction situations.

Of course, the people missing out would be a lot of people hoping for a relatively affordable AWD dual motor because a quad motor with four wheel steering and 500 miles of range is going to cost as much as a loaded long-range Ford Lightning F-150. But I think Tesla could get a 300-mile, dual motor RWD version down to within $5-$10K of the announced $39,900 price of the single motor and it would be a far better truck with rear wheel torque vectoring and some other advantages up its sleeve. There could also be a dual-motor RWD with 500 miles of range which would be the sweet configuration for those who get past the fact that it's not technically a four-wheel drive truck (even if it climbs icy hills on par with a typical 1/2 ton 4x4).

So, while I don't expect Tesla to disappoint by releasing worse vehicles than revealed, they might not be directly comparable, even if they are better, becuase I'm not convinced Tesla will release four versions, with 1, 2, 3 and 4 motors. It just doesn't make sense. My thinking on this changed when Elon announced the quad-motor version.

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[HaulingAss]

Ford did Tesla a solid by raising Lightning prices. Not that Tesla couldn't price in the high five figures, but the higher Lightning price makes Musk look like less of an ahole. For some people excited about CT the $40K would have been a big stretch but doable. They will remember the initial low entry point presented.

Musk doesn't look like an asshole to most rational observers. Maybe he's said a few things that a minority of people might consider to be asshole statements, but that doesn't make him an asshole in the eyes of the majority. Remember, without Musk there would be no Cybertruck to chose from.

 

[HaulingAss]

At volume. Ford has the same plan.

In reality, at volume, the price will settle at what the market will pay. That's how we got a $50K Model 3 instead of the Honda Accord price Musk initially presented.

The Model 3 with 272 miles of EPA range is a much better car than the one announced in 2016 and it doesn't cost anywhere near $50K. It's also eligible for the tax credit, bringing it's $43,490 price down to an very affordable $35,590. Considering it has a heat pump instead of the resistive heater of the original car, and more range than initially anounced, and 7 years of inflation, it's amazing you can get one for only $590 more than the price announced in 2016.

BTW, Tesla never suggested it would cost the same as a Honda Accord. The target price for a 220 mile range Model 3 in 2016 was $35,000. Now you get 52 more miles of range for a bit more.

 

[RVAC]

No, I wasn't specifically thinking of 0-60 times, range, payload, and towing capacity, more that the quad motor complicates aligning the various specs and prices with the number of motors, particularly if the quad motor replaces the tri-motor. Since the Cybertruck has been evolving over time, and COVID added more time to that process, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla's thinking on configurations has changed.

Maybe for the first 2-3 years there will only be a quad motor AWD and a dual motor RWD, each available in 300- and 500-mile versions. That would simplify engineering and design because the dual motor would use the rear drivetrain from the quad motor. I've previously written posts arguing to not undervalue a dual-motor RWD simply because it's not AWD. This would be a very capable truck that would have plenty of traction to replace the most reasons why truck buyers pay more for four-wheel drive. It would not be a bad-ass off-road rig for challenging the most extreme trail conditions but it would be far more capable in tricky situations than most people can comprehend due to independent control of each rear wheel and no heavy motor upfront which is what really makes for the crappy driving dynamics of most RWD trucks in tricky traction situations.

Of course, the people missing out would be a lot of people hoping for a relatively affordable AWD dual motor because a quad motor with four wheel steering and 500 miles of range is going to cost as much as a loaded long-range Ford Lightning F-150. But I think Tesla could get a 300-mile, dual motor RWD version down to within $5-$10K of the announced $39,900 price of the single motor and it would be a far better truck with rear wheel torque vectoring and some other advantages up its sleeve. There could also be a dual-motor RWD with 500 miles of range which would be the sweet configuration for those who get past the fact that it's not technically a four-wheel drive truck (even if it climbs icy hills on par with a typical 1/2 ton 4x4).

So, while I don't expect Tesla to disappoint by releasing worse vehicles than revealed, they might not be directly comparable, even if they are better, becuase I'm not convinced Tesla will release four versions, with 1, 2, 3 and 4 motors. It just doesn't make sense. My thinking on this changed when Elon announced the quad-motor version.

I agree, we won't be seeing 1,2,3 and 4 motor versions all being made. However I wouldn't be so sure that the 4 motor version is set in stone.

 

[HaulingAss]

I agree, we won't be seeing 1,2,3 and 4 motor versions all being made. However I wouldn't be so sure that the 4 motor version is set in stone.

Yeah, I get it, besides the tweet from Elon that there would be a quad-motor, we don't have a lot to go on.

But I would argue that his Tweet is reliable, because he didn't use language that hedged the the release of a quad motor or made it sound just like a possibility, he stated it as a fact (IIRC). Also, it just makes too much sense to NOT do a quad motor.

 

[Arctic_White]

Another point with price is...

...If they price it high, even if the market will bear it... The presumption with the public that it's overpriced will remain, even if they reduce prices. Or everyone else increases prices past them.

It's a tough balance to do.

-Crissa

(There will also be a presumption by the investor class that either they can't remain profitable if they lower prices or that it'll ruin their investments if they lower prices, too. Which is another problem with following market price. It's sticky.)

Yeah, that's why I think we will all be pleasantly surprised at the initial price, despite the long wait time.

And then Tesla will adjust it to reduce the wait times (a la Model Y), but I just don't see it being over $100K initially. Maybe $80K at the most, this being the Plaid version.

Basically, I will be shocked if Tesla's base Cybertruck, dual motor, 300 mile version is more than $50K given that they have said that the Cybertruck and Model 3 costs the same to make. So why would they overcharge the Cybertruck?

Demands for pickup truck is 2M+ in US alone. Tesla will take a huge chunk of the market share, over time, and they can only do that if they have an affordable version.

 

[Ogre]

In reality, at volume, the price will settle at what the market will pay. That's how we got a $50K Model 3 instead of the Honda Accord price Musk initially presented.

I wish people would stop parroting nonsense.

If you wanted the Model 3 for $35k, it was available for 18 months at that price.

 

[Arctic_White]

-The CT is a supercab 4x4 competitor.
- 2% of american households is over 2 million
- the price of CT in 2023 is not necessarily the price in 2026

Lightning dual motor is $80K
Rivian R1T dual motor is $80K
The CT is a better truck.

CT will undercut both Ford and Rivian because Tesla's cost to make their vehicles is significantly cheaper. Do people not understand Tesla's unique and significant advantage in manufacturing?

 

[slomo]

CT will undercut both Ford and Rivian because Tesla's cost to make their vehicles is significantly cheaper. Do people not understand Tesla's unique and significant advantage in manufacturing?

Tesla doesn't price based on cost. They are rational.

 

[Ogre]

CT will undercut both Ford and Rivian because Tesla's cost to make their vehicles is significantly cheaper. Do people not understand Tesla's unique and significant advantage in manufacturing?

The prices @slomo posted there for “Dual Motor” trucks are not accurate either.

Base dual motor Rivian is $65k, base Ford with 300 mile range is about the same. Ford also makes a dual motor truck with less range for $56k.

As you suggest, Tesla is almost certain to land below that.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla doesn't price based on cost. They are rational.

It cracks me up that you say this, because almost nothing you’ve said in this conversation has been based on any sort of economic theory, and most of the numbers you’ve quoted are wrong.

How can you judge what “Rational” pricing is when you don’t seem to understand market forces, or Even what the current market looks like?

 

[Ogre]

I doubt it. The features advertised on the tin are enough to draw people in. They really just need to deliver it with the promised features and it’ll be super cool.

 

[Crissa]

Musk doesn't look like an asshole to most rational

Yes, he does, and let's not get into it.

When you say/support people who put others at risk, it makes you look not so great.

Also, real life is complex. Just because someone steps in it and looks foolish doesn't mean all the things they do are also bad or foolish. It's rarely all one or the other. We all do foolish things at times, and Elon is out there and doesn't hide his foolishness.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

Yeah, I get it, besides the tweet from Elon that there would be a quad-motor, we don't have a lot to go on.

But I would argue that his Tweet is reliable, because he didn't use language that hedged the the release of a quad motor or made it sound just like a possibility, he stated it as a fact (IIRC). Also, it just makes too much sense to NOT do a quad motor.

Hopefully we'll know more in March though I wouldn't hold my breath.

Who has sold a 100k of a $100k vehicle?

-Crissa

Not that I find the discussion about price terribly interesting but the Mercedes S-Class does sell close to that figure (90k/yr) and they average well above $100k. However that is a worldwide figure, provided Tesla is able to sell the Cybertruck outside the US I could see them doing 100k/yr at $100k for the 500mi version initially.

The prices @slomo posted there for “Dual Motor” trucks are not accurate either.

Base dual motor Rivian is $65k, base Ford with 300 mile range is about the same. Ford also makes a dual motor truck with less range for $56k.

As you suggest, Tesla is almost certain to land below that.

Cheapest R1T that can currently be ordered is the 260 mile dual motor for $73k.

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