For those who though that Foundation was really limited to 1000's units....here is your proof that its not....

[Tinker71]

I got my invite to the foundation series a while back. I was 225,000 in line. They are projecting an early 4th quarter delivery date. So the 1st question is how many cancellation did they get? They have mad a bit over 3,000 so far. If there where no cancellations, that would mean they expect to build over 300,000 this year. My 77,500$ truck is now $122,135, had about 1/2 the range promised and lower tow capacity. If there was a way to give away my place in line, I would probably do it, as the product has far under delivered compared to early promises.

I wonder if later reservations will have the same conversion rate. I am around 600000 and I am hoping mine doesn't come up until late 2025 when my m3 lease is over. If your 225000 came up this early in the ramp I suspect mine will come up around November. Bottom line is conversion rate is only ~15% with FS pricing.

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[beewang]

I wonder if later reservations will have the same conversion rate. I am around 600000 and I am hoping mine doesn't come up until late 2025 when my m3 lease is over. If your 225000 came up this early in the ramp I suspect mine will come up around November. Bottom line is conversion rate is only ~15% with FS pricing.

I have it as 20%... how did you derived your ~15% value?

Here is what I did.. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...and-then-changed-their-mind.17659/post-325228

 

[kfede1]

I have it as 20%... how did you derived your ~15% value?

Here is what I did.. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...and-then-changed-their-mind.17659/post-325228

I also did some quick math and got 15% conversion rate based on a total estimated end of 2024 (Wall street) of 40-50k trucks, 3k+ built to date and an Early October delivery date. It is pretty hard to do anything scientific since Tesla does not release any information. My assumptions where rough, 35k trucks built by the time my #225,000 truck is delivered. I expect that the conversion rate will fall off further, as the market gets more fulfilled and the novelty wears off. I also have a second reservation for #420,000. I can pass on the one they offered (#225,000) and wait for that. Hopefully they get the various issues resolved (Rust/stainless stains, Fit, finish, off road issues, etc.) by then. If not, there are getting to be a lot of EV and Hybrid trucks available by then. My use case was always towing a 11k# trailer over distance with a minimum of 20% extra capacity. Maybe they will fill out the partially empty battery casing by then and get the range up to the original promised 500 Miles.

 

[Tinker71]

I have it as 20%... how did you derived your ~15% value?

Here is what I did.. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...and-then-changed-their-mind.17659/post-325228

I kind of guestimated. I like your number better. But the competition gets greater everyday and the desire to be an early owner will fade. I am projecting a decrease in take rate.

 

[anionic1]

I believe they will give chance to each and every reservation holder to buy foundation series, once done then they will revise price and start all over again.

Yep, and when they revise it will be like the early Y orders where it only went to folks that also bought FSD. So it might go to $80k and only folks that buy fsd. Then it will eventually open to everyone at $80k. Then 5 years from now once a lot of other trucks are on the market and they are producing 500k per year it might drop to $70k

 

[kfede1]

I kind of guestimated. I like your number better. But the competition gets greater everyday and the desire to be an early owner will fade. I am projecting a decrease in take rate.

I would say I completely agree with that. It is funny, but some of the lesser car sites hyped the sales versus the competitors, but the early sales on the CT represent many many years of orders. The foundation edition at $122.5k represented a 20k premium for "FSD" which is more a a package name since it is level 2 self driving as well as a light bar and laser engraving and also some other options which were originally free. My original reservation was roughly $70k + $7,500 for full self driving. This is a 58% increase in price on top of a 50% reduction in range.

 

[beewang]

I kind of guestimated. I like your number better. But the competition gets greater everyday and the desire to be an early owner will fade. I am projecting a decrease in take rate.

I would argue that the fade is nowhere near what you are thinking... and here is why..

Its a worldwide demand. PPL in US aren't the only ones drooling over CT.

cheers!

beewang

 

[PhilEsq]

The proof is I'm still waiting for my FS. Est delivery was June-Aug and July-Sept after I changed the tires. A lot more than 1,000 have been delivered already.

 

[jsongster]

Everyone will probably differ on its utility. I have had mine for a month now and am doing a large scale home remodel, so I have used mine to tow, haul dirt, rock, lumber and various materials. It does great. The bed design has pluses and minuses. The front of the bed is too tall to reach into, so that is a minus, but the secure cover design allows you to have a safe storage in your bed but also allows you to open it easily to carry tall items. This is much more difficult to do with traditional truck bed designs, covers and caps. The bed also is too slick, but easily adjusted with an aftermarket mat, which is what I did. I would prefer it came less slick, but all well. Towing 3K lbs I lose about 30% range, so for me that is more than acceptable. I could see someone pulling heavy loads daily who doesn't have the ability to charge at home finding it more inconvenient, but if you can charge at home most people will likely find the trucks range adequate. It is an incredibly capable machine, a blast to drive and really quite comfortable as well. Not to mention, when my daughter dropped her bike against it on day one of owning it I didn't have to worry about dents or scratches in my new truck!

I have for years now used a Model X as a minivan and routinely loaded up the hatchback with the fold flat rear seats. The CyberTruck is easier to load and unload.

 

[evazquezcu]

The proof is I'm still waiting for my FS. Est delivery was June-Aug and July-Sept after I changed the tires. A lot more than 1,000 have been delivered already.

I'm assuming your RN is way lower than mine. People on the 1130's are still receiving FS invitations, and yes way more than a 1000's

 

[PhilEsq]

I'm assuming your RN is way lower than mine. People on the 1130's are still receiving FS invitations, and yes way more than a 1000's

The point is I'm still a few thousand deliveries away and there were probably already 7 or 8,000 deliveries

 

[tmeyer3]

I understand many owners treating their trucks like an expensive sports car. I also understand many truck owners treating it a like moderately expensive new truck. I mean, I thought about getting something other than a CT since I really needed a truck sooner rather than later, but I was set on the features too since it needed to be a family vehicle too. After doing a comparison, I realized that with FSD, superior tech, Tesla warranty, electric discounts, and extra spaceship coolness, $100k really wasn't that bad of a price in the current market. A similarly equiped Ford is well over $100k and costs more to drive and maintain. I can live with growing pains for the fun/cool factor. But I can't live with $4.50+ / gallon and rubber gaskets constantly failing after warranty runs out.

My truck will likely look like something from cyberpunk nomads, or mad max by the end of 2025

 

[evazquezcu]

No 7500 discount here, remember those caps at 80k

 

[kfede1]

I understand many owners treating their trucks like an expensive sports car. I also understand many truck owners treating it a like moderately expensive new truck. I mean, I thought about getting something other than a CT since I really needed a truck sooner rather than later, but I was set on the features too since it needed to be a family vehicle too. After doing a comparison, I realized that with FSD, superior tech, Tesla warranty, electric discounts, and extra spaceship coolness, $100k really wasn't that bad of a price in the current market. A similarly equiped Ford is well over $100k and costs more to drive and maintain. I can live with growing pains for the fun/cool factor. But I can't live with $4.50+ / gallon and rubber gaskets constantly failing after warranty runs out.

My truck will likely look like something from cyberpunk nomads, or mad max by the end of 2025

Hmm. My 4x4 Hybrid Ford King ranch with a much greater tow capacity, 600 mile range and a full luxury Leather and wood interior trim did not cost even close to 100k. Where do those numbers you have come from? It does use gas, but here it is about $3.20 and I get 22mpg, I also have an EV with over over 500 miles of range and fully luxurious interior, so I lean towards EVs... But not necessarily for a truck. I received my invite to convert my 2019 CT reservation to an order a month, I was roughly 220,000 in line. I have not acted yet.

 

[tmeyer3]

Hmm. My 4x4 Hybrid Ford King ranch with a much greater tow capacity, 600 mile range and a full luxury Leather and wood interior trim did not cost even close to 100k. Where do those numbers you have come from? It does use gas, but here it is about $3.20 and I get 22mpg, I also have an EV with over over 500 miles of range and fully luxurious interior, so I lean towards EVs... But not necessarily for a truck. I received my invite to convert my 2019 CT reservation to an order a month, I was roughly 220,000 in line. I have not acted yet.

Just go price any new trucks recently, especially luxury ones. Seat 5, tow 11k, 6' bed, all the gizmo upgrades, 35" tires, off-road package, yeah.... Let me know what you find. Can't really price FSD into it,... So let's say $92k new is the goal. I can't find any, maybe I'm just bad it this.

Edit: so i just priced a new f 150 platinum, 6.5' bed, tow package, and a 4x4 package (which only has rear lockers and floor liners? didn't quite understand it) and I'm already $90k, but that's just pricing online. This video, sadly, reflects my personal experience shopping in the luxury truck market:


This doesn't mean the CT should be $100k, by any means! But I need to buy a truck, I WANT a luxury truck for the family, I don't want it to cost $0.25 / mile to drive, and it's currently a bad time to buy a truck in general... soooo... we're all kinda screwed I guess lol

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